Hi NR
Been following this thread with interest, I'm not that interested in what people may think will happen but more in why they think it will happen,
as this will assist me in making my own decisions.
I would have thought Keiths question was straight forward, your statement was
"Well Keith the depression is here and all that I have outlined unfortunately continues to roll out. Now I am told that I don't have an original though?"
Keiths question was
"The depression is here ? ... in Australia ? Do you have (credible) links ?"
You've ducked Keiths question with your answer however I'm also curious
as to whether you consider Australia to be in a depression and what is your definition of a depression?
Cheers
Pete
As has been stated on this thread by top cropper and others. Australia is 12-18 months behind the rest of the world with regards to the unfolding financial tragedy and really its just the last two months that some of my customers have woken up.
The fact that 18 months ago I started talking about the soft depression counts for nothing on this site because some will continue to argue because they don't want to have to face up to reality....yet.
There are lots of economists in Australia who can't chew gum and walk who continue to tell us we will avoid a recession
The federal government ad nasum keeps telling us our banks are sound
We read the financial times and the finacial review from front to back every day, We attend about 6- 10 auctions most weeks. We are on half a dozen property and investment sites and instead of watching TV we surf the net learning and developing our financial literacy day in day out. We have owned and operated successful businesses since 1991 and we are comfortable with our own judgement and we will give you an example.
When we joined this site16.04.2007 the first few months we contributed a bit on SMSF's and Trevisan trusts as we were keen to share our good story that lasted up to 11th of August 1999.The large retail funds lobbied the government and had that option closed off as is so often the case. When property warrants were offered we could again see an opportunity for individuals to take control of their own super through investing directly in property.
Super the way the retail and industry funds want to run it is a scam designed to skim the cream off of working people for life.
When we first borrowed the term soft depression, (I think it was from a book that talked about demographics and the coming financial dislocation of so many boomers retiring and accessing their (U.S.) 401 retirement accounts selling down shares). it was around July 2007.
It was also then that we discovered the gorilla in the closet called subprime through surfing the net. We can accept that probably right up to July 2008 what we were saying looked like an unlikely scenario. Anything that we did post was viewed anti-property and D&G.
We only have limited time and as time went on anything we posted that suggested (a) a soft depression was coming, (b) the asx would drop below 3500 by the end of Oct 2008, (c) the reserve rate would drop to 2%, (d) the dollar would evenually drop to 38 cents and the final straw as far as the optimists on this site was that (e) residential property would drop 40-50%
sending the blue sky brigade into paroxysms of horror.
All along more and more demands are made to prove it. Anything we post is met with derision and scorn and is cast off as having no merit. Because we have kept posting the message and warning novice investors to protect their seed capital, this has infurriated what we call the blue sky brigade that advocate being geared to the back teeth. This term was coined in response to the continued abuse.
The moderators have done a great job of removing our vitriole when the abuse got too much. In the last few months we note a lot of people starting to say we don't like the message but NR's runs on the board are starting to add up.
Turk we are not prepared to continuely post to support what is now bleedingly obvious. The world banking system is insolvent, we are in a depression and world trade is collapsing. If you don't believe that or are not sure we have a suggestion.
Get on the net and arrange a three month subscription of the financial times. Also purchase a hard copy subscription of the financial review and read both from front to back for three months.
If at the end of that time you disagree with us then you are invited to click on the ignore facility on this site, that will hide our posts and you can get on with investing.
The only reason we believe we are still allowed to post on this site is that the moderators have scrutinized us closely and they recognise that we are indeed bonified property investors all be it unpopular ones
The fact that one of the owners of this site saw it necessary to post his long term optimistic view on property because of his genuine concern that the site has been polarized says it all, this discussion is going nowhere.
We would like to suggest that perhaps we will focus more on the posters who are interested in what to do with regards to protecting and expanding your property portfolio in a depression.
For those who wish to continue to flame us; "you will get a post from us saying have a nice retirement on the government pension
." That means we have used the site facility that allows us not to see any of your further posts.
Someone we met many years ago who became a very wealthy man during the depression in Canada told us the secret to making a lot of money in a depression was to have no debt in your business and internally fund all your growth from profit, trim your overheads, look after your employees and those less fortunate than you.
Having just reread a book about Warren Buffett that was published in the late 1980's. He started with about $10'000 after the war, he was worth around 25 million by the late 1960's and as of 18.02.2009 his net worth was 62 billion. Warren has always eschewed debt. That is more difficult to do when investing in property initially. But in unstable times you should be preserving your seed capital.
NR
