Half a million dollars

To get a historical perspective:

Year 2002 - Read article again, but substitute 300,000 for every time there is a 500,000 and change all other numbers accordingly.

Year 1997 - Read article again, but substitute 140,000 for every time there is a 500,000 and change all other numbers accordingly.

Year 1980 - Read article again, but substitute 40,000 for every time there is a 500,000 and change all other numbers accordingly.

500,000 is not a lot of money anymore...
 
I don't follow super, but that can't be true?!
About 23 years ago I took a three month trip to Asia and the US. I met A mexican lady in the US. We go along pretty well so I decided to go visit her six months later. But I didn't have the money after that precious trip.

No problem. I'd been five years with that company so I changed jobs. My super was immediately available for me to spend on a trip overseas.

That turned put well for me because we've now been married for 21 years and MrsW is the most supportive fantastic partner I could have wanted, and a major part of of our wealth creation in the years since we were married.

But the point is that, at that stage, it was just so easy to draw out and use super to spend.
 
From the main headline on The Age website this afternoon; "Is panic buying sweeping our property market?"


I'll take her up on that; she is indeed old-fashioned to struggle with accepting half a million dollars as a low amount.

The journo might seem old fashioned, but she also seems to have the facts on her side.

The median house price for Melbourne is about $470k. $500k is above this. So by definition it is quite impossible for it to be considered low-end, when taken for Melbourne as a whole.

Subject to patterns of distribution, where there is a median of $500k, one might consider a price of around $300k low end and maybe $800k high end. Or even better, one might describe anything in the bottom 25th percentile as 'low end' and in the top 25% as 'high end'. The rest is somewhere around the middle - give or take a couple of hundred thousand.

Then read on and note the article is about a certain subset of property - inner suburban within 10km of the CBD. This accounts for a diminishing minority of suburban property and the population. But their average prices are high and $500k may indeed be entry level in many of them for anything other than a small unit.

The average Age reader or ABC radio listener lives (or is assumed to live) in the inner suburbs. If they don't then it's the aspiration. They are assumed to have $100k+ incomes (another minority, though the high earner/high spender's false Aussie egalitarianism dismisses this as 'only a battler income'). In terms of housing preference and suburb location they are assumed to be clones or Monique Wakelin (who regards $600k as 'low end' for a house that will appreciate).

Journalists and the degreed people who read the Age tend to be heavily represented in the inner suburbs (though often as tenants or house sharers rather than owners) and talk to inner suburban REAs and buyers agents a lot. Hence 'inner suburban' is considered 'normal', even though it's maybe 20% of the state population.

Such people may know that there are many houses and units available for under about $350k (and even that by definition 50% must be under $470k as that's the median) but because of their further out location they make the lifestyle decision to stay inner and rent rather than move out to an 'inferior' location.

However they tend to write (and complain about affordability) on the basis of properties around where they rent, rather than considering where they can afford to buy. The issue is not that they can't afford to buy, but they have rigid criteria that is set so high that it prevents purchase.
 
isnt median the middle number and not the average?

1, 1, 2, 5, 6, 20, 25

Median = 5
Average = 8.6

Yes. It's the amount where 50% is above and 50% is below.

Hence it is a more representative indication of 'typical' than 'mean', or what is commonly called 'average'. 8.6 is not representative whereas 5 is.

Also significant is distribution, which median evens out. The above distribution would be extremely dispersed if applied to house prices, and a representative sample would have only very small numbers of sales at 20% of the median (say $100k) or at 500% of median ($2.5m).

The more extreme the distribution the better median is in being representative of 'most sales' provided it's still roughly a bell-shaped curve.

However if you get a distribution like 1 1 1 20 20 20 then a median of 10.5 (ie midway between 1 and 20) is also not necessarily representative and would be atypical.

Fortunately house sales tend around some sort of average and the situation immediately above does not normally apply.
 
http://www.superannuation.asn.au/mr060503/default.aspx

Seems the average rolling rate is around 80k these days but when one retires after 40 years work its probably up around the 200k mark. Still sobering numbers.

Cheers
Aussie

even 200K sounds too low. I've been working for 10 years and I have 130K in super and I've only been on high income for 3 years. If I work for another 30 years with compound interest I will break the million mark easily.

I think that 80k will rise as more of the gen x and y gain more years under their belt.

I wonder what the median instead of the average is?
 
I guess the median/adverage of all super across Aust. is pretty much irrelevant as it would take into account the 18yo who started his first job 6 months ago and has $3k in there.

Important figure would be what the people at retirement age now are cashing out at, but as mentioned earlier - it still won't really be an accurate average compared to what people who will have had super paid for their whole working life will end up with. But we won't know that for another 30-40yrs. Either way I don't plan to find out by personal experience!
 
In his book, John Burley describes investors at different levels.

Level 1 is broke, and on welfare etc.
Level 2 is still broke, but has a job and is in debt.
Level 3 is still broke, but has a job and has some super.
Level 4 is where most of us are; property and shares, a managed fund or two, enjoying returns of more than 15% yer year.
Level 5 was above 25% per year returns.

or something like this.

So, if you are a Level 3, which is most middle class people I'd say, then you are going backwards in his opinion.

If you have decided on super as your only investment path, unless you are a very high income earner who can salary sacrifice into it to death, then the news is probably not going to be too good at retirement.

My uncle was an engineer who worked for many years with Phillip Morris tobacco company in Melb, then went out on his own into Quality Contol Systems. Retired on only super about 10 years ago.

Has done ok, lived a reasonable retirement until last year, but is now living with wife in a small unit in a retirement village. Sold the family home. They are sweating bullets because of the stock market crash last year/this year, and have lost a big whack.

Sold every share, and are now shuffling their funds between the various Term deposit accounts on the market to try and conserve the capital, and live life a lot more frugally now. They are devastated.

Level 3.
 
However they tend to write (and complain about affordability) on the basis of properties around where they rent, rather than considering where they can afford to buy. The issue is not that they can't afford to buy, but they have rigid criteria that is set so high that it prevents purchase.
I have to say this is incredibly, incredibly true. There's plenty of cheaper houses around, be they a bit far from where you want to live, or they need work or extensions or are just a unit with no yard or something, so if your goal is simply "a house to live in" its doable.

I hate to say it, being a mod over on *that* forum, but we're actually doing the total cliche property ladder crap ourselves out of necessity. Cheap house in bad area, fixed it up. Used it to buy a solid, restorable but crap house in a good area then will sell the first one. Fix up and subdivide next crap house. Build 'median' house next door, then sell previous house. At the end of this process (which looks to be about 2 years if the first house sells within 6 months - one year down already) we're going to end up with a new house owned debt free (which we can either sell or keep as an IP) and a fair whack of money in the bank too, which will go on a 50% deposit on another house which will be our 'perfect' architecturally designed eco friendly house on about an acre, and considering how many 1 acre blocks are for sale in our 'perfect' area this is not an unrealistic goal.

We could not afford THAT house upfront (they exist around here, they cost about $400-500k which is 10-12x local wage) but we can by putting up with a few suboptimal houses along the way. Or, of course, by the original plan which was to live in the original fixed up crap house in the crap area for several years while we work on our business idea and then build the fancy house with the spoils. The property 'ladder' seems faster, tbh ...

But getting into your 'perfect' upper crust inner city house with a big backyard as your very first house while you're still young? You can do it if you've got the money ... those houses are kinda not median ...
 
I hate to say it, being a mod over on *that* forum, but we're actually doing the total cliche property ladder crap ourselves out of necessity. Cheap house in bad area, fixed it up. Used it to buy a solid, restorable but crap house in a good area then will sell the first one. Fix up and subdivide next crap house. Build 'median' house next door, then sell previous house. At the end of this process (which looks to be about 2 years if the first house sells within 6 months - one year down already) we're going to end up with a new house owned debt free (which we can either sell or keep as an IP) and a fair whack of money in the bank too, which will go on a 50% deposit on another house which will be our 'perfect' architecturally designed eco friendly house on about an acre, and considering how many 1 acre blocks are for sale in our 'perfect' area this is not an unrealistic goal.

...


So, why haven't you been kicked off that other place yet..?? You must be an embarrasment to all over there, and your a moderator? :eek:

Specufestor. :)

See ya's.
 
Topcropper asked the question that has had me puzzled for a long time. I would be really interested in hearing your thoughts on why you are allowed to be a specufester, but we are all tarred and feathered?

I am not being smart, but have often wondered about this?
 
Topcropper asked the question that has had me puzzled for a long time. I would be really interested in hearing your thoughts on why you are allowed to be a specufester, but we are all tarred and feathered?

I am not being smart, but have often wondered about this?

I'm assuming because the house was less than $100k so therefore acceptable to all their socially responsible calculations ie.

Median Wage x Social Responsibility x Profit Margin / House Price x Inflation x 100 = X

if X > 100 your a specufestor
if X < 100 your a top sort struggling to get ahead in life
 
Specufestor. :)
It actually says specufester in my info under my avatar - we're doing this crap a) for a place to live and b) because we are writing what is effectively porn and its hard to get venture capital for adult stuff, so we've factored all our business expenses into the sale of our current house (they are mostly software with a fairly long evaluation period so we can delay their actual purchase). The business is the main reason we moved to the sticks in the first place - you can code anywhere, so why not do it from a house with a $40pw mortgage?

Houses are still overpriced and likely to correct, y'know :p Just because I snapped up a cheapie last year on a lo-doc loan with view to tart it up, subdivide it and sell it in greedy specufestor fashion doesn't change my opinion on that :)

I also just happen to live somewhere now that the median house is still close to 4x median single wage. Although not sure how long that will last, this town does have a rather high median wage for the area and an impressive influx of new people and new houses, I think there's now so many new houses compared to old ones (they keep knocking the old ones down and subdividing the large blocks to build new) that the median $180k 3x1 1900s workers cottage is going to give way to a $400k 4x2 2000's brick veneer place any day now and completely screw up the figures.
 
I'm assuming because the house was less than $100k so therefore acceptable to all their socially responsible calculations ie.

Median Wage x Social Responsibility x Profit Margin / House Price x Inflation x 100 = X

if X > 100 your a specufestor
if X < 100 your a top sort struggling to get ahead in life

And, she's trying to sell. That's their go, isn't it?

YA GOTTA SELL, YOU FOOLS. :D
 
And, she's trying to sell. That's their go, isn't it?

YA GOTTA SELL, YOU FOOLS. :D

Spot on, plus RE comes in under their max cap. You may not own anymore than 2 houses at any given time - more than that and they're obviously just sitting there empty and you're specufesting, robbing others of the chance to own that house.
 
Spot on, plus RE comes in under their max cap. You may not own anymore than 2 houses at any given time - more than that and they're obviously just sitting there empty and you're specufesting, robbing others of the chance to own that house.

Yeah, correct.

I think "that other silly place" (to be named forevermore from this day forward as "T.O.S.P" - let's call them; TOSPERS ;)) has us all confused with massively rich celebs who have a mansion in every cap city just sitting there waiting for us to visit on our many hols.

And, so what? What is wrong with anyone owning a ream of places around the world just for their own personal use?

I'll tell you what - nothing (financially).

If you have a problem with that from a financial aspect, then the problem is yours, and the problem is jealousy and resentment.

There may be problems with it from an ecological aspect - cutting down trees, using energy and so on - but that doesn't seem to come across as a reason for the TOSPERS - it seems to only be all about (their) lack of affordability, and how we are ruining it.

Of course, for me; if even one of my IP's is vacant it really p.i.s.s.e.s me off - I want them always full with tenants.

You know; those people who can't buy their own house and really, really want to live somewhere.

Imagine what would happen to the price of houses if all of them at once were able to afford to buy, and the supply didn't change.

website slogan: "TOSP - we're fighting for your right to afford to buy - just so you can all go out and drive the values straight back up again" :D
 
$80k in super for 40 years work doesn't sound right, especially with compound return. I have about $30k after just 7 years despite the recent negative returns. I think you may have missed an extra 0 at the end there.

super has only been compulsary for the last 17 years (or so). therefore your $30k over 7 years, times it by 3 = $90k. so spot on for those retiring nowadays. very few people put into super before it was compulsary - they'd rather take the dollar now and not think about the future.

some sensible folk did take up super before it was compulsary and are now looking at funds worth $500k+ - but they are few and far between.

as for $500k buying 10 houses in detroit ... big difference between inner city melbourne and dying ghost town in america, imo.
 
G'day

"as for $500k buying 10 houses in detroit ... big difference between inner city melbourne and dying ghost town in america, imo."

Sure there is a big difference - but there is also one big similarity ie 500k hence the discussion!
 
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