Why is your single Japanese link more credible than my 5 Japanese links?
Thanks (sort of)
Dave
House Prices doubling every 7 to 10 years
- Thread starter lowell
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Why is your single Japanese link more credible than my 5 Japanese links?
Thanks (sort of)
Dave
Your Japanese links are not Japanese links. They are English language websites targetting an English-speaking audience. My Japanese link is a real Japanese link targetting real Japanese people who live in normal Japanese apartments, as compared to the overpriced luxury apartments listed on your sites.
But to match you site for site, here's four more:
One
The google links translate the Japanese for 10,000 as 1 million. so where it says 2,780 million yen, it is actually 27,800,000 yen. believe me or not as you like.
Two
Three
Four
There are, of course, many many more - the most popular and sophisticated sites do not play well with automatic translators as there is no discrete page for me to give the translator a link to.
The most popular and robust search engines are:
http://realestate.homes.co.jp
This one shows the front page, and you start to hit the 3DK (3 bedroom) ones toward the end. but when you click on the next page it comes up with an unlinkable page.
and
www.athome.co.jp
These two sites, as well as yahoo, have tens of thousands of listings and that is what makes them more credible. They are a better reflection of the kinds of places that average Japanese people live in.
As far as your later argument that you are now comparing land/m2, I don't see the relevance to that. The highest population in the densest part of Sydney (not sydney as a whole, according to the ABS is 4000/km2. In Tokyo the *average* population density is 13,416/km2 (Tokyo metropolitan govt). Comparing raw m2 without considering other factors is pointless.
We had been talking about average families buying average homes, and if we keep that as our standard basis of measurement than it is clear that is much easier to find an affordable home in Tokyo than it is in many parts of Australia.
I don't know how useful these comparisons are, but all of the arguments used in here to support the eternal rise of housing prices were no doubt used during the bubble in Japan. Land is scarce in Japan--a great deal more scarce than in Australia. Demand is high (people keep moving to Tokyo), etc., etc.. Yet in the end prices have fallen dramatically. The median price for an apt. in tokyo is NOT 2 million dollars.
So is it really all that different here?
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Thanks for your question.
Shadow has answered it already, although I'll add:
It's always about the land growth. Land being the 'enabler' for the dwellings (for lack of a better word). The dwelling just exists to general an income.
A easy reminder is: Land appreciates, buildings depreciate.
Wow wouldn't it have been great to own a large block of land back in the day where those 100+ unit skyscrapers now stand right in Ginza. Imagine the growth on that!
Given that Japan is a much more mature country and has a declining population, maybe I'll buy this type of thing here in Australia whilst I still can.
Some people might not think Australia would end up like that with all of our land around. Given that if you drive 1.5 hours out of Tokyo and you have farmland suggests to me that people will go denser and denser before they'll go farther and farther away from infrastructure.
Ok, maybe this is a bit off topic but the argument when comparing prices from say 40 years ago to now is that houses were so much smaller then.
Well that flies in the face of the "invest in the land" mantra where the land appreciates in value of the years.
If thats the case,who cares about the changes in housing.
Well that flies in the face of the "invest in the land" mantra where the land appreciates in value of the years.
If thats the case,who cares about the changes in housing.
Your kidding right?, by simply pressing the Japanese language buttons on those sites I linked to (Which are Japanese and in Japan) they make all the language Japanese.
Example
http://www.century21japan.com/jp/index.html
http://www.plazahomes.co.jp/
So suddenly by your reckoning they are now credible and targeting real Japanese people who live in normal Japanese apartments
WTF? Since when has a 30 to 50 m2 older style apartment been luxury?
Are you saying that people live in even smaller crappier places than those ones?
The pictures in your first link look much more luxurious than the dogboxes I linked to.
Dave
An example then: The house I'm in I bought 40 yrs ago. It was then only a few years old and "met the standard of the time" so it would have been a little above median I suppose. The value of the building was well over half the total value, possibly 80% but that's a guess.
A major suburban centre has grown around it and with 1,012 sm of land and medium density zoning the house adds little to the value now. Maybe 10% so in this case the appreciation has been in the land. Another block I owned a few years before building a new home on it would give me the same cash profit if I were to sell it as a vacant block so the block has appreciated and the house has slipped a little in spite of building costs having risen sharply. This covers a 12 year period.
I've promised Peter that I will stay out of controversy so I'll let you people draw the conclusions.
A major suburban centre has grown around it and with 1,012 sm of land and medium density zoning the house adds little to the value now. Maybe 10% so in this case the appreciation has been in the land. Another block I owned a few years before building a new home on it would give me the same cash profit if I were to sell it as a vacant block so the block has appreciated and the house has slipped a little in spite of building costs having risen sharply. This covers a 12 year period.
I've promised Peter that I will stay out of controversy so I'll let you people draw the conclusions.
So I take it you didn't read the bit in the "about us" page of the cent. 21 site where they say:
Or the bit on the other site where they say:
.
And in their Japanese versions, they say essentially the same thing - that they are targetting expats.
Well I guess that means that you are agreeing that your data is wrong since I was able to find, even without using the major RE search sites, places that looked nicer than yours but which are selling for under 3-4x annual wages.
I really can't understand why you continue to debate this when it is pretty obvious that this is not simply some deluded fantasy that I have dreamed up. Just admit that there are a lot of things you don't know about Japanese housing and that some of the assumptions you are basing your calculations on are dead wrong. I am not trying to be insulting, I am trying to correct your mistaken assumptions. By insinuating that I am somehow making this all up and lying, I think I am being the one insulted.
So, do you agree that the house is not a very significant factor when comparing values from say 50 years ago to now.
Its all about the land.
Its all about the land.
An example then: The house I'm in I bought 40 yrs ago. It was then only a few years old and "met the standard of the time" so it would have been a little above median I suppose. The value of the building was well over half the total value, possibly 80% but that's a guess.
A major suburban centre has grown around it and with 1,012 sm of land and medium density zoning the house adds little to the value now. Maybe 10% so in this case the appreciation has been in the land. Another block I owned a few years before building a new home on it would give me the same cash profit if I were to sell it as a vacant block so the block has appreciated and the house has slipped a little in spite of building costs having risen sharply. This covers a 12 year period.
I've promised Peter that I will stay out of controversy so I'll let you people draw the conclusions.
The land was much larger then.
No where did I say that you are a liar or that I know more about Japan, you are clearly making that up or just being overly precious.
I know bugger all about Japan, In fact all I know of Japan is internet based.
So you are saying that the sites, the people who run the sites are liars and they run a 2 tier market in Japan?
But hey, you are the expert, you are clearly right and those sites I linked to are there just to sucker in the Japanese speaking reading expats, but, couldn't those same Japanese speaking reading expats then read the sites you liked to?
Wouldn't they see that the sites I linked to were according to you BS?
How would Century21 etc even stay in business?
Wouldnt the Japanese authorities have something to say about a business that according to you blatently rips people off for many times what a property is worth?
Dave
And i think Japanese women are very attractive. Is that relevant?
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=MzxwGazkLWU
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=MzxwGazkLWU
I wrote a long response to this but have deleted. The running personal attacks/defense/justification/counterattacks are not productive. Let's just call it a day, shall we?
I never said that. As I have said throughout the properties they are selling are not representative. They do not fall into the category of an "average dwelling".
Expats have different requirements and different standards. Accordingly the apartments that are being shown are of a different class altogether.
Your characterization of Japanese apartments as "dogboxes" is representative of this. Most Aussie/American families would probably be horrified if they were put into an "average" tokyo family's apartment. They are not used to living that way and they don't know how to do it. For Japanese people it can be a little cramped, but in Tokyo everything is cramped. You get used to it.
The places with the multi million dollar price tags listed on your sites are palacial by Japanese standards, with some going as high as 180m2. What is more, you only really get big apartments (120m2+) in fancy luxury buildings that are centrally located (i.e. 2-3 minute walk to major station), surrounded by fashionable shops and usually providing a range of on-site services such as concierge, etc. Think upper east side, manhattan. So it's not simply a question of m2.
Consider the reverse situation. A Japanese-language real estate agency based in Sydney targetting expat Japanese businessmen (i.e., elite and wealthy) coming to Australia but not having much/any competency in the English language or knowledge of local customs/laws. That is what the sites you listed are, but in reverse. The kinds of properties they list are marketed to that sort of clientele.
Perhaps I was careless in characterizing them as "overpriced". From the perspective of an average Japanese (or an expat who is wholly familiar with the language and the customs) they are certainly overpriced. For someone who does not have that background, the extra cost might well be worth the extra security of being able to deal with a brand you know and trust in a language that you can understand with people who are familiar with the situations of expats.
If these expats could read/write/speak and understand Japanese and had the time to do the research I am certain that they could find a better value for their dollar even if they were buying the same level of prestige properties. However most cannot. Most have little or no knowledge of the language. so they rely on places like Century 21 which offers premium services for such customers and, as a result, charges premium prices. It's the same the world over.
Not BS, or at least not completely BS. But certainly not representative. Since this thread was, way back when, talking about "average dwellings" it is important that the samples used be representative in order for them to have any meaning.
This particular Cent. 21 branch (cent. 21 is not a major RE agency in Japan, btw. I have only ever seen it advertised in media targetting foreigners in Japan (such as english language cnn, etc.). I have never seen it advertised directly to Japanese) markets a very narrowly defined portfolio of properties to a very narrowly defined target audience. Their ability to stay in business is testimony to their skills in that very narrow field.
They also seem to be very nice people. The only three Japanese women I have had the priveledge to know have been really kind, caring women.
Regards JO
Its about as relevant as this argument over semantics of Japanese property....
Back to the original thread topic.
My parents bought a house on a main rd in Baulkham hills in 1991 for $170,000. Sold in 1998 for approx $300,000.
Yep. Close enough to doubling in a 7 year period.
And here you go misrepresenting again.
I have not talked about or shown palaces of 180m2, thats something you have made up.
What I have talked about and shown are ordinary looking inner city 50m2 places and you even acknowledge this in post 113
In post 102 I linked to average Japanese wage
Below are pictures of what you consider to be a palace, the inner city 50m2 appartment, from the website I linked to, for 35,000,000 yen.
35,000,000yen divided by the 3,483,624yen(290,302yen x 12) average wage = 10 wage years for 50m2
Am I missing something so far?
Like I said, I could buy inner city Australian capital 50m2 for half that.
But if you like, you are right and I am wrong if it makes you feel better. Japan has cheap inner-city housing.
Dave
Attachments
This really is pointless, isn't it? Whenever I make a point you find a detail that doesn't fit (or that you do not see as fitting) and then harp on that to the exclusion of all else.
some history:
1. You started this off with the absurd claim that the average price of an average tokyo apt. was $2 million (or so) and that this consituted 53 years income. I said that this was absurd. Your response was not to ask a question but to simply say "Prove it". Ok, so I did, for all the good that did. I provided a "dodgy" yahoo link that you ignored.
2. to prove that the average apt. went for million+ you listed several websites that prominently feature apartments going for... over a million. go through your own links if you don't know what i'm talking about. if you post a link and the first thing that pops up on that link is a 190m2+ apt going for several million, how do you expect people to interpret that?
3. Then you say you want to compare 50m2 apts. Fine, sounds fair. you dig out some very expensive 50m2 apts and I dig out a bunch that are very cheap. Once again, you ignore all of the listings I post (because they don't fit your paradigm) and say, "see! 10X annual wages!" I guess we have given up on 53X....
4. You use a flawed process for calculating wages. You attempt to extrapolate from one month of average wages for Japan as a whole and say that that is a fair representation of a what someone in Tokyo would be earning. I pointed out this monthly wages are not a fair indicator of annual wages, i point out that japanese median wages are not the same as tokyo median wages. others point this out. you ignore everyone and stick to your initial numbers because... well, why do you do it? do you think that people live in tokyo but commute to and from Okinawa to work? is there something about this concept of people working in the same general area that they live that offends you?
Finally, completely ignoring everything I discussed about population density, etc. you assert that you can meaningfully compare a 50m2 apt in a backwater city such as brisbane (no offense to backwater cities, but compared to tokyo that is what it is) to a 50m2 apt in downtown tokyo. What is that supposed to show?
I am not misrepresenting anything--at least I am not deliberately misrepresenting anything, I may have mistakenly done so.
You, on the other hand, are completely ignoring everything that I say that doesn't fit your very simplistic view of the world. That is a bit frustrating. This is not a dialogue and it seems that your point is not to understand the reality but to simply try to undermine my arguments whenever and whereever you can. this seems to be a favorite strategy of yours in your postings across the forums. ignore what doesn't fit your paradigm and obsess on irrelevancies in order to undermine the "opponent" (as if this is a competition...)
There is no point in my continuing to participate this discussion. Feel free to make up whatever figures and "facts" that you like, I won't try to put reality in your way. Sayonara.
some history:
1. You started this off with the absurd claim that the average price of an average tokyo apt. was $2 million (or so) and that this consituted 53 years income. I said that this was absurd. Your response was not to ask a question but to simply say "Prove it". Ok, so I did, for all the good that did. I provided a "dodgy" yahoo link that you ignored.
2. to prove that the average apt. went for million+ you listed several websites that prominently feature apartments going for... over a million. go through your own links if you don't know what i'm talking about. if you post a link and the first thing that pops up on that link is a 190m2+ apt going for several million, how do you expect people to interpret that?
3. Then you say you want to compare 50m2 apts. Fine, sounds fair. you dig out some very expensive 50m2 apts and I dig out a bunch that are very cheap. Once again, you ignore all of the listings I post (because they don't fit your paradigm) and say, "see! 10X annual wages!" I guess we have given up on 53X....
4. You use a flawed process for calculating wages. You attempt to extrapolate from one month of average wages for Japan as a whole and say that that is a fair representation of a what someone in Tokyo would be earning. I pointed out this monthly wages are not a fair indicator of annual wages, i point out that japanese median wages are not the same as tokyo median wages. others point this out. you ignore everyone and stick to your initial numbers because... well, why do you do it? do you think that people live in tokyo but commute to and from Okinawa to work? is there something about this concept of people working in the same general area that they live that offends you?
Finally, completely ignoring everything I discussed about population density, etc. you assert that you can meaningfully compare a 50m2 apt in a backwater city such as brisbane (no offense to backwater cities, but compared to tokyo that is what it is) to a 50m2 apt in downtown tokyo. What is that supposed to show?
I am not misrepresenting anything--at least I am not deliberately misrepresenting anything, I may have mistakenly done so.
You, on the other hand, are completely ignoring everything that I say that doesn't fit your very simplistic view of the world. That is a bit frustrating. This is not a dialogue and it seems that your point is not to understand the reality but to simply try to undermine my arguments whenever and whereever you can. this seems to be a favorite strategy of yours in your postings across the forums. ignore what doesn't fit your paradigm and obsess on irrelevancies in order to undermine the "opponent" (as if this is a competition...)
There is no point in my continuing to participate this discussion. Feel free to make up whatever figures and "facts" that you like, I won't try to put reality in your way. Sayonara.
You do both know that by now nobody else is reading past the first line of your posts in this thread? So it isn't as if you have to uphold your honour or anything for an audience. Just thought I would say that so you can both relax a bit.
Scott
Scott
