House Prices doubling every 7 to 10 years

You do both know that by now nobody else is reading past the first line of your posts in this thread? So it isn't as if you have to uphold your honour or anything for an audience. Just thought I would say that so you can both relax a bit.
Scott

Yep, I just find it funny the big back peddle he is doing, even on the cheapies (not the average)he provides it still works out at around 8 x wage years for 50m2 compared to the same in Sydney for about 4x. (wouldn't want to use a backwater Brisbane example)

And this is after Japan has had the big property crash.

Then we have to calculate wages differently, not using published figures.

But hey, go for it urchin, you can make the figures say whatever you like.:rolleyes:


Dave
 
'not always' means that block sizes were not always larger 40-50 years ago. I dont think you can generalise like that.

'We can work on a sq m basis' means that a meaningful comparison would be on a dollar per square meter basis.


I thought it was pretty straight forward.

I don't understand what you are trying to say.
 
No it wasn't.

How about this - 'The average block size in Australia in 1950 was larger than it is today' True or False.

How can the answer be 'not always'? It either is or it isn't.
 
You said 'the land was larger then' and i replied 'not always'. Meaning i dont think not all blocks of land were larger then.

Which i thought was a valid & straight forward reply to your post.

You said nothing about averages in your initial post.

shhheeeeesssh...........:)

No it wasn't.

How about this - 'The average block size in Australia in 1950 was larger than it is today' True or False.

How can the answer be 'not always'? It either is or it isn't.
 
Fair cop mate - what a pointless nit pick. Surely it was implied. What kind of idiot would have written 'every single individual block of land in Australia was larger in the 50's than now'.

You're smart enough to know what I meant.

Overall, the general trend is that blocks have become much smaller. Sure, there are a few individual exceptions. Or, do you think otherwise?

Oh no... I'm being sucked in....!!!!!
 
No i agree that blocks are probably smaller these days but i'm not sure overall. It only happens in the new estates where developers squeeze as much $ out of infrastructure as they can.

I can only respond to what i see and sometimes its hard to pick up subtleties or implications on the net.

Fair cop mate - what a pointless nit pick. Surely it was implied. What kind of idiot would have written 'every single individual block of land in Australia was larger in the 50's than now'.

You're smart enough to know what I meant.

Overall, the general trend is that blocks have become much smaller. Sure, there are a few individual exceptions. Or, do you think otherwise?

Oh no... I'm being sucked in....!!!!!
 
That explains why we misunderstood each other. I thought it was a given that dwelling land sizes were much larger back in the day 'overall'. Open up a 10 year old street directory and it's obvious.

I've seen many examples of a battleaxe blocks, houses with houses built behind them, and large old houses torn down to make way for blocks of units, etc. This is a pretty regular thing even 35kms+ out of Melbourne.

It's pretty rare to see a block size get bigger, although I know of one or two cases where someone bought their neighbours house to bulldoze for a tennis court.
 
The bit that is rubbish is the causality (or even a correlation) - there isn't any.

I retired debating this stuff with you a while ago because typically you keep moving the debate just a bit off centre everytime - somebody says that their is no relationship between variable A and B and the reply is "look it variable A - it is the highest ever" (variable B drops off the discussion). It's like watching a politician answer questions from Kerry Obrien. It gets frustrating.

All I can say is those with high levels of debt who have put all their eggs in one asset category, and do work that has highly cyclical demand (e.g. contractors) must be a bit worried - even spending loads of times on forums convincing themselves of some rather illogical arguments about Australia being the only country in the world that is "different".


Yld matters, you are correct in that there is nothing special or unique about Australia per sei, but you are wrong in that just because property prices in the UK & USA are dropping that ours should too. What about Cambodia? are their prices rising or falling at the moment?
Have you thought that we might just be at different structural points.

You will be correct one day in that Australia at some point in time will have a major property correction, but the question is when? I dont think its in this current cycle.
 
A $ per sqm basis over time would be very interesting.

If you can work that one out please do. I don't think I can.

This whole per sqm discussion is pointless. There is far more to a place than simply sqms - it is the environment, the neighbours, the facilities, the convenience etc. "Housing" is the whole deal.

Bottom line is a typical home in Japan albeit a different "typical" to us went up in price way past incomes and then came crashing back down again. That is the moral of the story.
 
Yld matters, you are correct in that there is nothing special or unique about Australia per sei, but you are wrong in that just because property prices in the UK & USA are dropping that ours should too. What about Cambodia? are their prices rising or falling at the moment?
Have you thought that we might just be at different structural points.

You will be correct one day in that Australia at some point in time will have a major property correction, but the question is when? I dont think its in this current cycle.

I think our structural points are near identical. Massive consumer debt run up - many people buying housing assets as a gambling chip rather than a home. We'll see - I think the trend down will continue until sensible prices return.
 
This whole per sqm discussion is pointless. There is far more to a place than simply sqms - it is the environment, the neighbours, the facilities, the convenience etc. "Housing" is the whole deal.

Bottom line is a typical home in Japan albeit a different "typical" to us went up in price way past incomes and then came crashing back down again. That is the moral of the story.


I smile when you guys over analyse situations leading to investment paralysis. In your whole lifetime there might only be a single occurance when all the stars match, and even then there will probably be some single point of economic or social data that makes you hesitate.
 
I think some of these blokes would sell their car to a passing pedestrian at a 40% discount if they happened across a red light. There will never be green lights again - this time its different.
 
I bought a mortgagee sale house as an investment property at 40% less than the bank valuation earlier this year (give or take - $65k vs $90k - the council val is $110k), I think this fact alone allows me to both moderate on GPHC *and* post over here :D
 
I think our structural points are near identical. Massive consumer debt run up - many people buying housing assets as a gambling chip rather than a home.no the proportion of investment properties as a % of total properties has been roughly constant over the last 10 years give or take a few % points. We'll see - I think the trend down will continue until sensible prices return.

I mean this in a polite manner, but you can think all you want, luckily personal opinions of individual people dont count, only the majority and even then only if they act on their opinion. And more importantly the opinions of this board have no bearing on the state of my future wealth.:D Luckily wealth is not derived by a vote by other people as to its correctness

when did you start entering this debate, 2006 or 2007? since then incomes have risen 4% 07-08 and around 8% 06-08, interest rates are now dropping, if people are smart enough to fix at reasonable rates for a long period, then future potential inflation will become irrelevant (wasnt there a big argument last year about the unsustainability in the growth of money having an effect on inflation, this year its the worry about deflation, next year????).
If property prices fall say 10%, then you have that 10% fall coupled with reduced interest rates and higher salaries leading to higher affordability.

Whether people act or not i dont know, i still maintain my belief that the majority of people are sheep, the majority enter at the margin and end up being burnt. What happened to all those 'desperate buyers' from late 2007, who were complaining about the unfairness of excessive bidders bidding up the price of property, property being sold before auction before they even had a chance to get their bid in etc. These same people are probably now hunkering down congratulating themselves that they didnt buy and are now waiting for property to fall. They will still be waiting until property enters its next boom upon which time they will be jumping up and down complaining about the unfairness of it all.
 
I mean this in a polite manner, but you can think all you want, luckily personal opinions of individual people dont count, only the majority and even then only if they act on their opinion. And more importantly the opinions of this board have no bearing on the state of my future wealth.:D Luckily wealth is not derived by a vote by other people as to its correctness

when did you start entering this debate, 2006 or 2007? since then incomes have risen 4% 07-08 and around 8% 06-08, interest rates are now dropping, if people are smart enough to fix at reasonable rates for a long period, then future potential inflation will become irrelevant (wasnt there a big argument last year about the unsustainability in the growth of money having an effect on inflation, this year its the worry about deflation, next year????).
If property prices fall say 10%, then you have that 10% fall coupled with reduced interest rates and higher salaries leading to higher affordability.

Whether people act or not i dont know, i still maintain my belief that the majority of people are sheep, the majority enter at the margin and end up being burnt. What happened to all those 'desperate buyers' from late 2007, who were complaining about the unfairness of excessive bidders bidding up the price of property, property being sold before auction before they even had a chance to get their bid in etc. These same people are probably now hunkering down congratulating themselves that they didnt buy and are now waiting for property to fall. They will still be waiting until property enters its next boom upon which time they will be jumping up and down complaining about the unfairness of it all.

lol my thoughts exactly you could throw a house at them under market and they still wouldn't buy and will whine for the next 20yrs I wokred out 4 coastal areas in queensland what the cost to buy vs renting in these areas and guess what it was cheaper to Buy with the fhog and lower interest rates:cool:
 
lol my thoughts exactly you could throw a house at them under market and they still wouldn't buy and will whine for the next 20yrs I wokred out 4 coastal areas in queensland what the cost to buy vs renting in these areas and guess what it was cheaper to Buy with the fhog and lower interest rates:cool:


Please tell because i bet you will find they are places you would not want to live. No thanks. I've got a nice deposit that will continue to grow plus we have property prices falling quite dramatically in the area i WANT to live.
I'm paying half what i would on a mortgage in rent, 7 km from the melbourne CBD. Lifes good and its going to get better as property continues to fall.:D
 
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