Housing bubble - about to burst...?
- Thread starter firefox
- Start date
Despite all the negative news, the cheaper end of Melbourne has done very well. The lowest decile of capital city properties will continue to do well. It's a house-pickers market.
Grungy, much maligned places like North Frankston have actually risen in this weak market. In the case of North Frankston, up a massive $23,000 this quarter, mainly because people are starting to realize that most older homes in Frankston & North Frankston are ripe for redevelopment (most houses are on dual occ sites).
If you paid too much for an innercity two bedroom apartment in Melb, no doubt you are hurting. Take comfort in the fact that Melb prices are still $45,000 more than what they were back in April 2010. t's nowhere as bad as people like to make out.
The future for Melbourne is this: the cheapest decile of properties - and I'm talking grungy suburbs, albeit with infrastructure - will vastly outperform the general market. With the increasing possibility of interest rate cuts later this year, the future isn't as bleak as the negative thinkers would wish.
Grungy, much maligned places like North Frankston have actually risen in this weak market. In the case of North Frankston, up a massive $23,000 this quarter, mainly because people are starting to realize that most older homes in Frankston & North Frankston are ripe for redevelopment (most houses are on dual occ sites).
If you paid too much for an innercity two bedroom apartment in Melb, no doubt you are hurting. Take comfort in the fact that Melb prices are still $45,000 more than what they were back in April 2010. t's nowhere as bad as people like to make out.
The future for Melbourne is this: the cheapest decile of properties - and I'm talking grungy suburbs, albeit with infrastructure - will vastly outperform the general market. With the increasing possibility of interest rate cuts later this year, the future isn't as bleak as the negative thinkers would wish.
Annie, why are you talking up North Frankston? 
This is something like the 4th response in 2 days where you specifically refer to North Frankston, and redevelopment.
You're not an agent in the area are you?
This is something like the 4th response in 2 days where you specifically refer to North Frankston, and redevelopment.You're not an agent in the area are you?
I've only just logged on today, after a hiatus of over two weeks. Did you miss me?
You're not an agent in the area are you?
Not at all. Haven't been an agent since the 90s, and then only for 3 months when I was in the UK.
Because while most other markets fell, North Frankston grew 8+% in the last 3 months. That's a whopping annualized 32% gain; despite the current negativity it's a pretty decent figure. Yes, I've had to deal with bogan tenants. But it's been worth the hassle. I'm looking desperately to buy more grungy old homes on big blocks because i truly believe the lowest decile of capital city property will outperform the rest of the market.
I would say fall instead of growing being latest figures show 280k, 291K and 275K
Last sold beyond 300K was on 18th Feb.
average is 282K and median is 290K
Moreton St $160,000 12/04/2011
Bursaria Cr $280,000 28/03/2011
Rosemary Cr $291,800 25/03/2011
Whitewood St $275,000 22/03/2011
Chile St $267,500 21/03/2011
Tamarisk Dr $274,500 21/03/2011
Silver Av $310,000 18/03/2011
Silver Av $305,000 16/03/2011
Mulberry Cr $320,000 14/03/2011
Bursaria Cr $280,000 13/03/2011
Lambert St $307,500 4/03/2011
Marlock St $242,000 26/02/2011
Hickory Cr $305,000 18/02/2011
Pine St $262,000 12/02/2011
Honeysuckle St $310,000 12/02/2011
Pine St $320,000 11/02/2011
Bouvardia Cr $303,000 7/02/2011
Whitewood St $290,000 7/02/2011
Brunning Cr $270,000 28/01/2011
Last sold beyond 300K was on 18th Feb.
average is 282K and median is 290K
Moreton St $160,000 12/04/2011
Bursaria Cr $280,000 28/03/2011
Rosemary Cr $291,800 25/03/2011
Whitewood St $275,000 22/03/2011
Chile St $267,500 21/03/2011
Tamarisk Dr $274,500 21/03/2011
Silver Av $310,000 18/03/2011
Silver Av $305,000 16/03/2011
Mulberry Cr $320,000 14/03/2011
Bursaria Cr $280,000 13/03/2011
Lambert St $307,500 4/03/2011
Marlock St $242,000 26/02/2011
Hickory Cr $305,000 18/02/2011
Pine St $262,000 12/02/2011
Honeysuckle St $310,000 12/02/2011
Pine St $320,000 11/02/2011
Bouvardia Cr $303,000 7/02/2011
Whitewood St $290,000 7/02/2011
Brunning Cr $270,000 28/01/2011
I wouldn't want anyone to think I'm making it all up. See for yourselves by clicking ht elink below. As the rest of the markets fell, the past three months have seen a $23,000 gain for North Frankston. Mainly because it's been forgotten and developers are moving in to take advantage of the ultra-low prices for development sized blocks with rentable homes. Here's the link for Melbourne - scroll down for North Frankston.
http://data1.reiv.com.au/trendchart/
Look at the graph! 8+% in three months while eveything else in most other suburbs fell! That's an annualized 32% gain while everyone else moaned about interest rates, crime, bogan tenants and the oncoming end of the financial world.
As Melbournian has kindly shown it's still unbelievably cheap, with lots of good, rentable stuff selling for under the current median of $303,000.
Rather than be accused of talking-up NF, I suggest that the lowest decile of ALL non-innercity Melbourne property, particularly those homes on development sized blocks, will definitely outperform the rest of the market. And with higher yields to boot (albeit with lower quality tenants who don't enjoy Stravinsky). If you can bear up with tenants who think Rudolf Nureyev was a horse's hoof, then yes by all means invest in North Frankston. If not, invest elsewhere, where yields may be lower and capital gain limited.
http://data1.reiv.com.au/trendchart/
Look at the graph! 8+% in three months while eveything else in most other suburbs fell! That's an annualized 32% gain while everyone else moaned about interest rates, crime, bogan tenants and the oncoming end of the financial world.
As Melbournian has kindly shown it's still unbelievably cheap, with lots of good, rentable stuff selling for under the current median of $303,000.
Rather than be accused of talking-up NF, I suggest that the lowest decile of ALL non-innercity Melbourne property, particularly those homes on development sized blocks, will definitely outperform the rest of the market. And with higher yields to boot (albeit with lower quality tenants who don't enjoy Stravinsky). If you can bear up with tenants who think Rudolf Nureyev was a horse's hoof, then yes by all means invest in North Frankston. If not, invest elsewhere, where yields may be lower and capital gain limited.
median is 290K actually not 303K. That graph is skewed and doesn't take into account once off sales
and the highest sales a once off 380K last year compared to the other mid to high 200Kish which was likely to push the median up in july 2010. on a statistical note - it is on a downward trend.
2 notable stats same configs - same streets was march 2011(267K) and Nov 2011 (268K)
if anyone would to purchase - would rather wait. would see my little upside just on stats alone.
and the highest sales a once off 380K last year compared to the other mid to high 200Kish which was likely to push the median up in july 2010. on a statistical note - it is on a downward trend.
2 notable stats same configs - same streets was march 2011(267K) and Nov 2011 (268K)
if anyone would to purchase - would rather wait. would see my little upside just on stats alone.
Annie I'm not sure why you're getting so defensive. The market has clearly popped and you'll probably see it fall 20-30% in the next 12 months. Mortgage belts such as Frankston/Wyndham etc will be hit hard the most. You really think the white collars in eastern suburbs are going to be mortgage stressed compared to the blue collar car mechanic in Frankston?
Humans are still humans.
Just because the colour of the collar and the postcode is different doesn't mean their finance intelligence is a lot different or that the respective home owners aren't mortgaged to the collar bones.
The choice of consumerism items will differ;
The Frangers mechanic will mostly likely burn it all on his car (Conformadore), ciggies, slabs of VB and tatts, Maccas and the 55" plasma and a boat. His mortgage will be for a house costing maybe $350k if he has even saved enough for a deposit.
The Camberwell lawyer will blow it on his car (Beemer 535 for him and a latest model Beemer X5 for her and the kids), private schools fees, the holiday house in Rye he uses once a year, restaurants and designer clothes, 60" plasma, (larger boat) maybe the ciggies and grog, holidays to Vietnam and Zurich. His mortgage will be for a house costing $1.5mill. The borrowings will be high for it, because he now has a reputation and image, and has to be seen "in the life". So he's gunna get in there as quick as he can get the deposit together.
And so on.
A bit of stereotyping never hurt anyone.
But I reckon fairly accurate.Actually yes, in my opinion, less of being vicim of mortgagee sale, but certailnly will offload.
Humans are still humans.
Just because the colour of the collar and the postcode is different doesn't mean their finance intelligence is a lot different or that the respective home owners aren't mortgaged to the collar bones.
The choice of consumerism items will differ;
The Frangers mechanic will mostly likely burn it all on his car (Conformadore), ciggies, slabs of VB and tatts, Maccas and the 55" plasma and a boat. His mortgage will be for a house costing maybe $350k if he has even saved enough for a deposit.
The Camberwell lawyer will blow it on his car (Beemer 535 for him and a latest model Beemer X5 for her and the kids), private schools fees, the holiday house in Rye he uses once a year, restaurants and designer clothes, 60" plasma, (larger boat) maybe the ciggies and grog, holidays to Vietnam and Zurich. His mortgage will be for a house costing $1.5mill. The borrowings will be high for it, because he now has a reputation and image, and has to be seen "in the life". So he's gunna get in there as quick as he can get the deposit together.
And so on.
A bit of stereotyping never hurt anyone.
You could make a documentary about consumerism from that post. How we are nearly all slaves to it, whether well paid or otherwise.
Yeah true.
Look, I am the first to admit I want to make loads of money so I can anything I want a do anything I want, provide the best lifestyle for my family and so son., even use some of it to help save the world.
But at some point you have to knuckle down and get with it in a financial sense for your own future. Most can't be bothered...to hard; too much like work - and it is.
I can also admit that I am not a slave to consumerism any longer; haven't been since the Reverend God Almighty R.K made me see the light.
Interestingly, since become so painfully aware of my own past consumerism mistakes, I see it everywhere.
Humans are still humans.
Just because the colour of the collar and the postcode is different doesn't mean their finance intelligence is a lot different or that the respective home owners aren't mortgaged to the collar bones.
The choice of consumerism items will differ;
The Frangers mechanic will mostly likely burn it all on his car (Conformadore), ciggies, slabs of VB and tatts, Maccas and the 55" plasma and a boat. His mortgage will be for a house costing maybe $350k if he has even saved enough for a deposit.
The Camberwell lawyer will blow it on his car (Beemer 535 for him and a latest model Beemer X5 for her and the kids), private schools fees, the holiday house in Rye he uses once a year, restaurants and designer clothes, 60" plasma, (larger boat) maybe the ciggies and grog, holidays to Vietnam and Zurich. His mortgage will be for a house costing $1.5mill. The borrowings will be high for it, because he now has a reputation and image, and has to be seen "in the life". So he's gunna get in there as quick as he can get the deposit together.
And so on.
A bit of stereotyping never hurt anyone.
I'd venture to guess there'll be a lot less mortgages or at least much lower LVRs on my street than some other areas.
For a start, where I live is paid off. Next door either side is paid off. Across the road my relatives are paid off. These are just the people I know. Not sure if friends at say Tarneit can say the same about themselves and their neighbours - and don't get me wrong, this isn't a personal attack on people living there but just an observation about demographics and who's most likely to crash in this recession.
You are claiming we are in or there is an imminent recession? On what measure?
Investment Boom on the way say CFO's in Deloitte Survey
Last edited:
Humans are still humans.
Just because the colour of the collar and the postcode is different doesn't mean their finance intelligence is a lot different or that the respective home owners aren't mortgaged to the collar bones.
The choice of consumerism items will differ;
The Frangers mechanic will mostly likely burn it all on his car (Conformadore), ciggies, slabs of VB and tatts, Maccas and the 55" plasma and a boat. His mortgage will be for a house costing maybe $350k if he has even saved enough for a deposit.
The Camberwell lawyer will blow it on his car (Beemer 535 for him and a latest model Beemer X5 for her and the kids), private schools fees, the holiday house in Rye he uses once a year, restaurants and designer clothes, 60" plasma, (larger boat) maybe the ciggies and grog, holidays to Vietnam and Zurich. His mortgage will be for a house costing $1.5mill. The borrowings will be high for it, because he now has a reputation and image, and has to be seen "in the life". So he's gunna get in there as quick as he can get the deposit together.
And so on.
A bit of stereotyping never hurt anyone.
Have to realize many of the people who live in those suburbs like camberwell have properties (s) there bought many many years ago. I got a friend whose parents came here to study in the 70s and have 2 places from back then all paid off. Do you really think some of those investors who buy places in south melbourne take loans? Cash buyers from my experience 5 times. It's just a different market and demographics on the buyers from this makret. Not everyone likes to burn money too - there are people even on high salaries who can just live on 1K a month. Tight *** - but what can you do if you want to get ahead?
I do support outer suburbs but if buying a place to subdivide - there has to be certain factors that ticks the box to make it work.
In btw did you sell ur frankston place?
Oh a housing recession, correction.
By the way, the last time BHP CEO Chip Goodyear said "Stronger for Longer" we had a sharemarket crash.
While I'm sure Deloitte is a highly respectable firm, I wouldn't focus too much on these reports. Remember, if the people writing these reports really knew what they were talking about, they'd be the next George Soros/Warren Buffett.
If my boss told me tomorrow to write a report on Australia's Pending Recession, I can probably bang one out by the end of the week and I would have awesome charts/statistics/commentary supporting it - and mind you it would arguably be from a more reputable corporate.
Similar threads
