Housing Finance Commitments Up Strongly

Or a bear trap! Which brings us to the conclusion that no-one knows what's going to happen. Someone's guess will be right but there is no way of knowing which guess that is. After all it's just a guess - the next black swan could be just around the corner - in either direction!

So best to hedge your bets by getting some exposure while the goings good and leave some room to spare in case the going gets better...

I agree with the 1st paragraph...

I respectfully disagree with the 2nd...

At a point in history where almost every other western country is experiencing asset price deflation due to a debt/credit crisis... who would 'hedge' their bets by purchasing rather expensive assets of the same class, especially with borrowed money.

It's better to sit on your hands some times.... difficult as that may be.
 
Well, the figures have been provided today by the ABS. Some people, you may be one, appear to be under the impression that all the recent strong increase in housing finance/commitments is the result of the FHOG boost. That is false. Today's figures published by the ABS show the following:

- NON-FHB March commitments are up 22% from last September.

- NON-FHB average mortgage sizes for March are the highest they have ever been.

Not all.

They're just the big change. We are seeing the highest proportion of FHB since the series commenced in 1991 and the average loan size for a FHB is more than $20K larger than average of all OO commitments


These figures show that the rises in activity are NOT limited to FHBs. NON-FHB activity is increasing strongly. Todays ABS figures also showed a growth in investor activity. Maybe you need to download the ABS data.

The figures are not "meaningless" - I think you just mean that they conflict with the view you are clinging to based on your gut-feel.

Yes, up seasonally adjusted but down on trend 1.2% after dropping 1% in February. Go through the numbers and check out when last the value of investor commitments was at the March level.

The other obvious news is that investors are yet to jump in or are unable to do so.
 
Oz Housing Upturn Becoming More Broadly Based

In previous economic cycles it has been the housing sector and in particular housing construction that has led the Australian economy out of recession and in the view of Westpac Bank today's housing finance data suggest a similar outcome in the current cycle.

Housing finance in March rose 4.9% in registering its sixth successive increase, an outcome the bank suggests was in line with expectations given consensus was for a 4.5% increase. Westpac itself had estimated a lift of 5.5% thanks to ongoing low interest rates and the current incentives on offer for first home buyers.

The figures show this combination is having an effect as Westpac points out new lending to owner occupiers is up 30% over the past seven months and finance to owner-occupiers to construct new dwellings has risen a litle more than 40% in the past four months.

ANZ Banking Group economist Dr Alex Joiner suggests today's data support other anecdotes of a continued improvement in Australian property market activity levels. Commonwealth Bank economist James McIntyre agrees, noting while in recent months the improvement has been a first home buyer story, this month the advance is more broadly based.

Joiner sees an important element of today's numbers being the sign upgraders are increasingly entering the market as this should allow the momentum achieved by the first home buyers boom to be maintained. He suggests this is a key to the market being able to continue to generate growth...

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=33521AB6-1871-E587-E1524971E0752A28
 
Do you think it is a bad sign?

An uptick in finance commitments means the following...

- Increased demand for housing, which often leads to higher prices
- Increased revenue for banks and mortgage brokers
- More business for real estate agents
- More work for the residential construction industry

To me these seem to be positive for the property market. You disagree?

Strawman.

I didn't say it was a bad sign - but you know that.

What I said was that it has SHOWN HISTORICALLY to be uncorrelated with house price movements. My position is that only things that are POSITIVELY correlated with house price movements are positives for the property market.

Once again, bad analysis.
 
Strawman.

What I said was that it has SHOWN HISTORICALLY to be uncorrelated with house price movements.

Once again, bad analysis.

Gremlin, I didn't say there was a direct correlation with house price movements. That's just something you made up in order to create your strawman argument.

What I said was that it was positive for the property market, in terms of increased demand for housing (which MAY lead to higher prices), increased revenue for banks and mortgage brokers, more business for real estate agents and more work for the residential construction industry.

Look, I realise the statistics coming out at the moment may be discomforting for bears. This is understandable. But that's no reason to go building strawman arguments and deriding my analysis based on a misunderstanding of what I said. I didn't make the correlation with house prices - you did!

All I said was that it is positive for the property market.

Can I suggest you slow down, take a deep breath, and go back and read my posts again? (especially post 9... I think that's where you are getting confused).

Cheers,

Shadow.
 
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...still good to see shadow put aside his greed and consider that the real estate industry interests will NOT necessary lead to home price increases...:rolleyes:
 
On the contrary, I don't think I have any confusion as to your position... ;)

You thought I was claiming that finance approvals were directly correlated with house price growth. You were confused and wrong about that, because you misunderstood my posts. Then, in order to attack my position, you proceeded to build a strawman argument using your incorrect assumptions. That shows that you were confused as to my position. Perhaps you still are? ;)
 
good to see shadow put aside his greed

What makes you think I'm greedy? Less of the argumentum ad hominem please. :)

and consider that the real estate industry interests will NOT necessary lead to home price increases...:rolleyes:

More strawman. Who said they would?

Real estate industry interests necessarily leading to home price increases? Huh? Where on earth did that come from? :confused:
 
What makes you think I'm greedy? Less of the argumentum ad hominem please. :)



More strawman. Who said they would?

Real estate industry interests necessarily leading to home price increases? Huh? Where on earth did that come from? :confused:

Gee Shadow! how many people do you think there are on this forum investing in property because they want to make money and not for the good of society or whatever...I trade because I want to make money, I don't want to hide that. At the end of the day it is all a balance of greed and fear, if you don't get greedy when you need to you are not running a good business (but it might still be good for society ;) )
Look, there is 2 main way the RE industry will make more money:
1-home price increase (good for everyone in industry)
2- increased number of property (transactions good for RE agents or new home build good for developers or both good for banks)
 
Greed?

Gee Shadow! how many people do you think there are on this forum investing in property because they want to make money and not for the good of society or whatever...I trade because I want to make money, I don't want to hide that. At the end of the day it is all a balance of greed and fear, if you don't get greedy when you need to you are not running a good business

greed (grd)
n.
An excessive desire to acquire or possess more than what one needs or deserves, especially with respect to material wealth

Is that how you would describe yourself Boz. Or just how you would describe me?
 
I thought the post initiating this thread was that housing finance is up and therefore it is at least a positive? I would say yes it is showing more activities by OO or PIs rather than finance volume going down or negative like in US, which shows possibility of a seizing up of credit market or lack of demand. I would not think that it is really relevant to attack the informer/poster or psycho-analyse character. I can learn from clarification of information but not from personal references.
 
greed (grd)
n.
An excessive desire to acquire or possess more than what one needs or deserves, especially with respect to material wealth

Is that how you would describe yourself Boz. Or just how you would describe me?

mmmh, I think you might be right, and my english knowledge is not my best bit.
anyhow, (as english is not my first language) my knowledge of greed come from the famous statement:
“Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful” - Warren Buffett
So, I thought wouldn't be that much of a bad word
Probably there is a more elastic way to look at it then from the dictionary as could be the excessive desire of succeed in the job of investing (and not as much in relation of making more money that what you need, and, by the way, how much money does anyone need?). Also,because in investing/speculating/trading to succeed you must be better then others it might be that either you have an excessive desire of winning (greed) or you might just be lucky. (it is a bit the same in sports, if you are not more keen to win then others you shall not win).
Anyhow, I apologise to you if my use of "greed" was inappropriate.
 
Anyhow, I apologise to you if my use of "greed" was inappropriate.

Apologise?! That's no fun... why can't we spend another 10-20 posts arguing? Pointless circular arguments are the best type. Just joking. No worries Boz. :D
 
It's all too vague (as usual with these types of graphs - too broad).

If all the activity of obtaining loans has been by the FHB's lately, then the overall amount we are committing to finances would raise, while at the top end or the middle-top end where possibly many people are shedding finance due to fear of the economy tanking, loss of jobs etc.

Or conversely; maybe only the well-heelled are plunging in for more finance - because they can - while the not-so-well-heeled are staying away dues to lack of deposits, lack of servicability etc. The graph would still show an uptrend.

To me, an increase in commitment to finance across the board (assuming wages are still the same) is a bad thing.

Why?

If everyone is getting more "up to pussie's bow" into debt as a % of income, then there is less wriggle room when things go wrong, there is less discretionary income for other things - such as food and clothing; life in general.

We end up with "house poor" people all over the place - doing nothing, going nowhere, spending little.

The short term might see house prices go up, because more people are taking on debt in various forms, but once they have reached their ceiling for finance, the spending will slow down quickly.

Ultimately, the economy slows, spending drops, housing slumps as there are fewer buyers etc.
 
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It's all too vague (as usual with these types of graphs - too broad).

If all the activity of obtaining loans has been by the FHB's lately, then the overall amount we are committing to finances would raise, while at the top end or the middle-top end where possibly many people are shedding finance due to fear of the economy tanking, loss of jobs etc.

Hi Bayview,

Yes, the chart is just a high level overview. If you follow the link to the ABS site in my first post you will find all the details you're looking for there.

The strong FHB activity has overflowed to other markets. Finance is up across the board, not just for FHBs. Full details on the ABS site.

Cheers,

Shadow.
 
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