How to determine where each state is in the property cycle

[manchester]

Hi guys

I'm trying to establish where each of our state's currently are in their respective property cycles. Would anyone be able to offer some kind of checklist that you could logically work through by assessing all the data available to establish this?

Cheers

 

[wll6568]

Hi guys

I'm trying to establish where each of our state's currently are in their respective property cycles. Would anyone be able to offer some kind of checklist that you could logically work through by assessing all the data available to establish this?

Cheers

I think in the YourPropertyInvestment magazine, they have a few pages of updating where each state is at, in current cycle.

 

[Propertunity]

I'm trying to establish where each of our state's currently are in their respective property cycles.

Herron Todd White publish this data http://www.htw.com.au/
Go to their month in review link on their website.
It is usually the last few pages of a 70+ page report.

BUT it is not always accurate to work out where in the cycle each place is at by "logically work through by assessing all the data available to establish this". And if you are a long time observer, you will see some inaccuracies and wrong conclusions from any number of the data analysis outfits, from time to time.

 

[alwaysinvogue]

Herron Todd White publish this data http://www.htw.com.au/
Go to their month in review link on their website.
It is usually the last few pages of a 70+ page report.

BUT it is not always accurate to work out where in the cycle each place is at by "logically work through by assessing all the data available to establish this". And if you are a long time observer, you will see some inaccuracies and wrong conclusions from any number of the data analysis outfits, from time to time.

That's a great link, thank you!

 

[beachside]

Herron Todd White publish this data http://www.htw.com.au/
Go to their month in review link on their website.
It is usually the last few pages of a 70+ page report.

BUT it is not always accurate to work out where in the cycle each place is at by "logically work through by assessing all the data available to establish this". And if you are a long time observer, you will see some inaccuracies and wrong conclusions from any number of the data analysis outfits, from time to time.

The monthly report is a good read, some more than others. You are not wrong about the cycle calls Propertunity, I remember Cairns a few years back they kept changing their mind and it took about a year before they called it right.

 

[Catalyst]

Thanks for the link, Propertunity

 

[Scott No Mates]

The property observer had the API's clocks for commercial, retail and residential the other day.

It was interesting to see which cities were further behind in the cycles.

 

[landlubber]

Broad brush

Sydney goes first ...happening now.
Melbourne goes next...happening now near cbd.
Brisbane goes next. Just starting to move.

Adel & Perth ... Ask somebody else.
Good luck
LL

 

[Corey Batt]

Adelaide is just on the cusp of warming up IMHO.

 

[devank]

Adel & Perth ... Ask somebody else.

Tasmania doesn't even come into the picture?

Andrew Wilson puts up a nice diagram which shows where each state is.

 

[Jamie M]

Adelaide is just on the cusp of warming up IMHO.

Agreed.

I'm seeing quite a few of my clients starting to focus on Adelaide now.

Cheers

Jamie

 

[Corey Batt]

Agreed.

I'm seeing quite a few of my clients starting to focus on Adelaide now.

Cheers

Jamie

Exactly. I've been finding a huge amount of interstate interest, chasing development and CF+ properties.

 

[redwing]

For discussion

Tony Quattroville (One Agency) posted this on his site as to where he currently see's the markets

I thought Brisbane may be at 9 o'clock

Did Perth peak, I must've slept in

 

[PHP]

Here is Andrew Wilson's 'Market status' back in March 2014.

Broken link devank? or is the photo just not showing on my screen?

 

[landlubber]

For discussion

Tony Quattroville (One Agency) posted this on his site as to where he currently see's the markets

I thought Brisbane may be at 9 o'clock

Did Perth peak, I must've slept in

Ok ....cut all the BS ..... in terms of cycles he essentially agrees ... it's in the order of Syd/Mel/Bris. BUT LONG TERM EVERY BODY GETS A PLACE AT THE TABLE. Simple. Mind you, you can make a lot of money following the cycles between states and also the ripple effect in each city. Now go and do it. Buy Brisbane inside 5k radius ... buy Melbourne in 15 - 20K ...then outside 20K if you're slow and always along train lines ... Sydney sorry you missed the train. LL

 

[landlubber]

Adelaide is just on the cusp of warming up IMHO.

Adelaide has always been "on the cusp of warming" since I've been investing in property. but lovely town. SA needs a resource BOOM ... and I mean "get off your rectal " BOOM. First boom gotta rid of all them churches .... then dude's are bad mothers ... LL

 

[bigdealbaby]

Herron Todd White publish this data http://www.htw.com.au/
Go to their month in review link on their website.
It is usually the last few pages of a 70+ page report.

BUT it is not always accurate to work out where in the cycle each place is at by "logically work through by assessing all the data available to establish this". And if you are a long time observer, you will see some inaccuracies and wrong conclusions from any number of the data analysis outfits, from time to time.

I see what you guys mean about the reports being slightly inaccurate, Newcastle went from start of recovery to peak of market in 3 months?

 

[redwing]

When was Adelaide's last boom?

 

[jim1964]

When was Adelaide's last boom?

2000,14 years ago if you ask me.

 

[landlubber]

2000,14 years ago if you ask me.

Hmmmm ..... a local saying 14 years since the last boom. Maybe ready for the next one. LL