How will the electric car change property investing???

One to ponder 5 years down the line....

The ICE (internal combustion engine) has a few years left but the electric car is starting to snowball(gain momentum) quickly. I wonder how that will affect us as investors?

Could the opportunities be(including inadvertently)

- Add value: now includes solar panels?? especially with the new buy back scheme and increasing power bills. A one two punch combo there.
- Car parks: possibilities include recharge centres?

Im getting this... http://green.autoblog.com/gallery/detroit-2010-tesla-model-s/med/#2 ....very sexy machine in a few years so im wondering how it will affect my daily life
 
This is an interesting article from business spectator,....

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...stralia-pd20100312-3FRR3?OpenDocument&src=kgb


........"The cars that ate Australia.

But unless something changes on the east coast, electric cars will be a disaster for Australian manufacturing. At this stage it looks like no electric cars will be made here – Ford, GM, Toyota and Mitsubishi are all gearing up rapidly to make them somewhere else'.........




They seem to think the electric car will finish off Australia's manufacturing industry even quicker than otherwise. But, it looks like we don't need manufacturing until our commodity wealth runs out.


See ya's.
 
Tesla cars are expensive because energy storage is expensive. We have been waiting for better energy storage for over half a century and while progress has been made on the energy density front we ain't there yet. It could be 5 years or 50 years before we get to a truly compelling (against intellectual curiousity) electricity storage proposition, given the advances in small, high efficiency turbo-diesel engines for example.

Also, the days of electricity being insanely cheap are over. In an environment where electricity prices track oil prices a lot more closely (through the gas market), the benefits of electric vehicles are no longer as obvious as they were.

In addition, with a large amount of coal generation on the grid currently and no sign of that changing, don't be under any illusions that this is a "green" development in the Australian context at least.

Watch this space but don't hold your breath while doing so!
 
Tesla cars are expensive because energy storage is expensive. We have been waiting for better energy storage for over half a century and while progress has been made on the energy density front we ain't there yet. It could be 5 years or 50 years before we get to a truly compelling (against intellectual curiousity) electricity storage proposition, given the advances in small, high efficiency turbo-diesel engines for example.

Also, the days of electricity being insanely cheap are over. In an environment where electricity prices track oil prices a lot more closely (through the gas market), the benefits of electric vehicles are no longer as obvious as they were.

In addition, with a large amount of coal generation on the grid currently and no sign of that changing, don't be under any illusions that this is a "green" development in the Australian context at least.

Watch this space but don't hold your breath while doing so!

Dont need to hold your breath. Its literally around the corner. Theres also a ton of context that you dont have there. Or that you may not appreciate

First of electricity tracks oil prices closely...true in some regards but heres something to put the stomp on that idea....I can make electricity...very easily. I cant set up a rig and drill for oil. Every man woman and child has pure easy access to generate(if they want/can afford)

As for battery tech. I follow it religiously and i can tell ya. Its advancing quickly. Well compared to the ICE (100+ years) .

Also you can swap out one battery tech for another without changing anything but programing in these new cars. 5minute battery swaps. Imagine having the next generation in battery tech just by going down to the servo and swapping in the latest(500mile?) and greatest at the flick of a switch.

Cant do that in todays cars. But can do in tomorrows(almost literally)

In any case its the least obvious things that in hindsight im looking for. I learnt my lesson with the iphone. Its crazy how blind i was to the way it changed an entire industry. I was one of those "Its just a silly phone whats pecial about that? All i need todo is make calls" .Hindsight. Such an amazing thing

IMO now i know whats coming. Im just trying to make money of it some how
 
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This is an interesting article from business spectator,....

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...stralia-pd20100312-3FRR3?OpenDocument&src=kgb


........"The cars that ate Australia.

But unless something changes on the east coast, electric cars will be a disaster for Australian manufacturing. At this stage it looks like no electric cars will be made here – Ford, GM, Toyota and Mitsubishi are all gearing up rapidly to make them somewhere else'.........




They seem to think the electric car will finish off Australia's manufacturing industry even quicker than otherwise. But, it looks like we don't need manufacturing until our commodity wealth runs out.


See ya's.

Nice overall piece TC. Its a good run down of what i know at the mo. Contour Energy Systems is latest in news recently. Batt tech is moving faster then i can keep up.

As for manufacturing in oz for the auto industry...i think they are making steps...toyota started with camry hybrid last year. Hopefully more fruit will come of this. Toyota have recently taken the rug of corolla hatch that has all the trappings of the prius in its small frame. Might be an opportunity there for australian auto.

And GM are bringing out the Volt in australia, which will be manufactured here also. So some small but important steps being made it seems :)
 
Dont need to hold your breath. Its literally around the corner. Theres also a ton of context that you dont have there. Or that you may not appreciate

First of electricity tracks oil prices closely...true in some regards but heres something to put the stomp on that idea....I can make electricity...very easily. I cant set up a rig and drill for oil. Every man woman and child has pure easy access to generate(if they want/can afford)

As for battery tech. I follow it religiously and i can tell ya. Its advancing quickly. Well compared to the ICE (100+ years) .

Also you can swap out one battery tech for another without changing anything but programing in these new cars. 5minute battery swaps. Imagine having the next generation in battery tech just by going down to the servo and swapping in the latest(500mile?) and greatest at the flick of a switch.

Cant do that in todays cars. But can do in tomorrows(almost literally)

In any case its the least obvious things that in hindsight im looking for. I learnt my lesson with the iphone. Its crazy how blind i was to the way it changed an entire industry. I was one of those "Its just a silly phone whats pecial about that? All i need todo is make calls" .Hindsight. Such an amazing thing

IMO now i know whats coming. Im just trying to make money of it some how

Hi reeco

This industry has had stuff "just around the corner" for decades now - unfortunately I have heard this all around my industry for the last fifteen years. These aren't technical problems. Sure you can generate your own electricity. Sure there are batteries that are low weight, high energy density, with fast charge and discharge etc etc. You can get everything you want but at what cost?

Electricity from the grid is less than half the cost you can generate yourself (excluding temporary govt subsidies) so self generation has a long way to catch up commercially. PV panels have halved in cost over the last five years but they are still horrendously expensive compared to the grid. Getting down to grid parity will take decades. Don't underestimate what's required - it has taken decades to get to this point.

Likewise for the cost of electric vs conventional cars. Getting the cost down is the problem, not the technical stuff. There is nothing to suggest it will be any quicker than the PV industry.
 
Hi reeco

Sure there are batteries that are low weight, high energy density, with fast charge and discharge etc etc. You can get everything you want but at what cost?

Don't underestimate what's required - it has taken decades to get to this point.

There is nothing to suggest it will be any quicker than the PV industry.

The PV industry. You bring up a good point. But again - you need more context.

Yes the PV industry took forever to grow...but you need to focus on a particular time in its history(year 2000 onwards) rather then its entire history to see that graph line shoot almost vertical. The billions that have been poured into that sector recently would astound any normal outsider.

Point is the heavy flow of money and competition in the cleantech industry is intense. We all know what intense competition and free flowing money mean...Cheap and rapid development... *China heres lookin at you buddy*

So theres your cost arguement. I dont even know why its even brought up since its basic economics. Stuff gets cheaper for the usual reasons.

Unless your watching the industry one cant really comment on its projected growth.(well one could but i wouldnt place bets on the less informed)

as you say theres nothing to suggest it will be any quicker then the PV industry. If you look only at its entire history... Your a property investor yes? do you judge a properties potential by its entire history (my house 1932) or by its current state and projected value?
 
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apart from exercizing the validity of an electric car i want to keep the post on topic

Anyone with any ideas? Im doing development soon . Ill be adding solar as a component of the house. Ill then sell the fear factor of rising power prices(actually true in WA) to increase the value of my IPs

Ill be building 3 IPs with solar water and a PV system attached to each. Ill then be marketing them respectfully to said market. We all know greenies are more willing to pay more to "help save the planet" and "reduce our carbon footprint" :)
 
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I think that this kind of development may impact favourably on properties located on main roads. Electric cars will reduce noise and fumes.

Didnt think of that. Yet so obvious. Itll be 30 year thing before that would happen but something to take note of.

There actually thinking of adding outside speakers to cars so that people can hear them coming. Strange as it may seem.
 
Our private vehicle fleet in Oz would have a "turnover" of 10 years (I can't back up that stat :D).

So if electric cars took 5% of new car sales next year (they won't) and increased their penetration 10% each year thereafter, how long before 50% of families owned an electric car? Will you live that long? You will not see anything in 5 years. :)

I've thought about it and I can see no way that "Mum" will buy an electric shopping trolly until/unless petrol becomes outrageously expensive. OTHER problems will then overwhelm any possible gain/loss in a property. It is unlikely that storage batteries will become cheap enough to entice a "normal" family to pure electric.

There is only one scenario I can think of that may change this and that is widespread instillation of "smart meters" and household (local) generation. You mentioned solar panels, but I doubt that. Ceramic fuel cells which give both hot water and electricity look more likely to me, but that is just an opinion too. What I imagine is millions of "golf carts" charging via your own power generator or off peak, and selling power back to the grid at a premium during peak usage. That is the only way a reasonable citizen could be enticed to go down that path.

As a stand alone item, pure electric will remain a novelty.
 
What I imagine is millions of "golf carts" charging via your own power generator or off peak, and selling power back to the grid at a premium during peak usage. That is the only way a reasonable citizen could be enticed to go down that path.

As a stand alone item, pure electric will remain a novelty.

Yes. It is a novelty. For now. But that will change. Just like the iphone. People will be gagging for it once they experience it first hand. Just like every single oldtimer ive had iphone conversation with. So many baby boomers were convinced(Me the loudest) that the iphone was just another toy or phone. Boy was i wrong. I know i wont be wrong this time.

Im not sure if anyones noticed but if you track oil see the obvious. If it werent for the strong aussie dollar it would cost a bit more.

For some strange reason in china "the common car" is a general sign of success. The demand for said item by such a population can only spell disaster for the rest of the world in terms of oil prices. Feeding that kind of manufacturing machine is a scary proposition. We can only hope there low income earners stay at that level. And that "all" the Iraqi fields come online soon.

As for "golf carts" well im pretty sure what im buying http://green.autoblog.com/gallery/detroit-2010-tesla-model-s/med/#2 .....in 2012 isnt a "golf cart" .I could be wrong. Its been said to have the traits of masseratti and jaguar by those in the auto industry. Wouldnt say no to those kind of comments. I forget to mention that Tesla Motors are opening a store in Sydney this year.

As for the cost well that is certainly irrelevent. Its a luxury item and being marketed that way. Just like the iphone at the start. I mean for petes sake the damn phone cost 1000 big ones when it came out!!:eek:

Your typical pundits (from billion dollar companies in the same industry) came out with the usual "thats so silly, i can buy a laptop for that kind of money AND a cheap nokia at the same time" "Tell me why anyone would be silly enough to want one of those"

The thing with the iphone(for the doubters) was that you had to experience its ability to understand how revolutionary it was. I can assure you the same will be said about the Tesla.

I cant wait for the pundits to come out with the same talk. It will be a funny thing to see. Hands up who thinks oil prices will stay low? :)
 
The iphone isn't the only phone, and was not the first, which can take photos, surf the net, run apps, or include a touchscreen btw :rolleyes:

We may be all driving electric cars one day, or maybe we'll all be driving cars running on biofuel :confused:

I'd guess that biofuel is the more likely option.

Either development would have more of an effect on commercial rather than residential property i'm guessing.
 
We may be all driving electric cars one day, or maybe we'll all be driving cars running on biofuel :confused:

I'd guess that biofuel is the more likely option.

Either development would have more of an effect on commercial rather than residential property i'm guessing.


Biofuel is not likely at all, ever. The world is only just feeding itself now with very little excess, and scientists seem to believe the worlds farmers can double production again in the next 50 years to feed everyone.

I reckon another doubleing in food production is impossible, so I'd rather own farmland than houses. I don't see any shortage of land to build houses on, but all the best farmland is already farmed, or being turned into houses.



Or same with making biofuel from tree's or algae, or what ever. Biofuel from algae will still need a feed source, which would be some sort of fertilizer, made from oil. :confused:


See ya's.
 
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Biofuel is not likely at all, ever...

Never ever :eek:

There are so many types of biofuel, heaps of different natural oils that are easily grown, it seems like it's a clean possibility.

If not, then we may well be driving around in electric cars, getting charged by wind, solar panel, geothermal and nuclear power stations.

Or maybe just a bit of both?
 
Never ever :eek:

There are so many types of biofuel, heaps of different natural oils that are easily grown, it seems like it's a clean possibility.


It's simply a matter of numbers and facts and figures as far as crops and ethanol go. The US is currently turning a quarter of it's grain crop into ethanol to provide just a tiny fraction of it's fuel needs. That's over a 100 million tonnes of grain. Australia's total grain crop is 40 million tonnes, so the US is turning 2.5 times Australia's grain production into ethanol now.

Remember that an Australian drought and a relatively small 50 million tonne grain shortfall 2 years ago triggered the food crisis, where grain prices doubled. There is just 10 cents worth of wheat in a loaf of bread that sells for $4, so raw food has the ability to increase by factors of 10 before people will starve to death.

The US and Australia are two of the worlds bigger grain exporters. For the US to grow enough grain to power it's auto fleet, it would take more than it's entire arable land. Then firstly, what do americans eat? And next, what does everyone else in the world eat who depend on US grain exports?


Easily grown..?? How do you know that? Grow crops do you?


The big talk now is biofuels from algae? Algae is simply using photosynthesis to convert nutrients into some form of carbohydrate or vegetable oil, which can be used to produce biofuel. Much like what an oilseed crop does now like sunflowers or soybean or canola, but is say 20 times as productive per hectare as a crop. But if it's 20 times as productive per hectare it will still require 20 times as much nutrient and 20 times as much water. There is no magic involved.

Where does all this extra nutrient come from? There is already talk that peak phosphorus might limit human populations before peak anything else. Nitrogen fertilizer production needs natural gas. Global urea production is currently 100 million tonnes and growing rapidly with food production.


See ya's.
 
The big talk now is biofuels from algae? Algae is simply using photosynthesis to convert nutrients into some form of carbohydrate or vegetable oil, which can be used to produce biofuel. Much like what an oilseed crop does now like sunflowers or soybean or canola, but is say 20 times as productive per hectare as a crop. But if it's 20 times as productive per hectare it will still require 20 times as much nutrient and 20 times as much water. There is no magic involved.

Where does all this extra nutrient come from? There is already talk that peak phosphorus might limit human populations before peak anything else. Nitrogen fertilizer production needs natural gas.


See ya's.

If they don't "feed" algae with aquaculture run off or sewerage, it's dead in the water, methinks.
 
If they don't "feed" algae with aquaculture run off or sewerage, it's dead in the water, methinks.

So much going for it. And equally so much going againts it. I'd rather take the easy path of battery tech for transport. But then again. How do we cross continents in the 30 future years? So biofuel has to be included in some form methinks. Ya know Ferrari won the f1 recently on a mix :) and a few
maiden 747 flights has been seen with the stuff. Air NZ to name one
 
gel packs and lithium are one way to solve the elctrical crisis.

tantalum is a superconductor but is UBER rare - Wodjina mine 70% of the world's tantalum in one little mine - comparitively.
 
There are a couple of problems with batteries: They only "cycle" so often before they degrade and they have a "shelf life" anyway. They use rare earths and strange metals and are a far bigger environmental problem than the greenie promoters care to acknowledge.

I see no indication that the domestic fleet of lower usage cars can be economically converted to pure electric. Until/unless they develop a workable gas powered ceramic cell the cars in suburban garages will be much the same as they are now for a long time yet. High fuel costs will cause people to drive less, not different.
 
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