Is Syndey Overpriced

[twodogs]

I too have been watching the Upper North Shore housing market, I also believe prices have come down 10%. Also agents who I have contacted with have been much more helpful. Example was a property in Roseville I was interested in on a large but as I then found out very sloping block...I emailed asking for a price estimate and was told "early $1M"....ouch too much I thought...I followed up and found the auction result was $880K passed in (still too much)!

I know that house, and I found out it was last sold just over a year ago for over $900k. Very nice street in great area.... 6 months previous around the corner a slightly more run down house went at auction for $970k . I've been looking for PPOR in north shore last few months. Amazing how few are now for auction, it's great to know what the asking price is

I'm not sure prices have come down, but certainly vendors/agents are not pushing as hard now, so no sign of any price rises. Good houses move quickly near asking price, but anything else is not and these houses seem to have started showing reduced advertised prices.

 

[Cosmo]

Hi BV,

I watch Sydney’s north west (Cherrybrook and West Pennant Hills in particular) and prices are definitely down on this time last year (5% approx). A lot of stock is for sale and I believe we are in the middle of further price corrections (10%+). Definitely a wait and see time for me at least.

 

[BV]

Thomo
You are causing trouble again.
How about you keep quiet for once.

Cosmo
How did you come to that conclusion?
Are you comparing previously advertised prices in an
auction market with the currect FOR SALE prices?
The question is, are the vendors putting up
their price by 20-50K and then backing off
after few weeks or a month when they can't sell
or are they selling for less than last years prices?

Maniyak,
Good to hear about your experience.
As you see the general feeling is that North shore is soft atm
but we should know at what we are looking at.
In this market properties on busy roads and in bad spots
would stay longer on the market and would be very negotiable.
The NSW stamp duty is coming into affect soon in NSW
and that will make some investors hurry up to get a sale through.

 

[Baloo]

BV, I am fairly confident in what I see out there in the areas I am looking out. Major roads, near industrial areas etc etc have been taken into consideration.

I would think it's reasonable to say that we are seeing reductions in low rise properties. It may not be everywhere, but it's certainly happening.

 

[Cosmo]

BV,

The northwest suburbs of Sydney rarely go to auction boom or no boom, only the fairly unique properties do.

 

[House_Keeper]

Sydney South West

I have watched houses prices around my area (Hurstville, Kingsgrove, Beverly Hills) drop by about 10 % since the market frenzy last year.

Not many auctions result in a sale. And there are much fewer auctions as well.

Definitely a buyers market at the moment.

 

[Peter 14.7]

I have watched houses prices around my area (Hurstville, Kingsgrove, Beverly Hills) drop by about 10 % since the market frenzy last year.

Not many auctions result in a sale. And there are much fewer auctions as well.

Definitely a buyers market at the moment.

The question is:

Has it another 10 or 20% to go?

In units I say yes so maybee hold off some more.

Any comment from Ross?

regards, Peter 147

 

[perky29]

At the moment, the market has really softened - I think this is close to being the best time to buy in the Hills district - prices may never be this good again (but I guess time will tell).....


When you hear on the radio that Sydney needs 25000 dwellings per year to cope with the population rising to 5 million by 2022 (they say the population will rise on average by 1000 per week) and 6 million by 2040, and some of the prices now are surprising....

I just went to an open home a few doors up from where I live on a house that has been on sale since October 2003 - it listed for 719k (prob 30 or 40k overpriced at that time IMHO) with one agent, failed to sell and now has been on the market for 699k for 2 months with another agent - and now is on the market at 619k -a drop of another 80k -

 

[Sunfish]

I have watched houses prices around my area (Hurstville, Kingsgrove, Beverly Hills) drop by about 10 % since the market frenzy last year.

Not many auctions result in a sale. And there are much fewer auctions as well.

Definitely a buyers market at the moment.

HK, you did not say "You'll never buy at this price again" and I hope this was not your inference.

I watched the run up of the tech bubble to it's eventual bust. (I'm more active in shares than RE) In March '01 anyone who read widely "knew" the party was over. So why did so many (pick your own noun) buy falling stocks? Because they thought in a short timeframe!

When making a long term investment, please read long term charts. (100yrs min). If you're a good dancer, let the trend be your friend. The inference here is that when the trend goes agin ya SKIP!

As an aside: Did you know that 2000y ago 1oz of gold would buy a Roman a good suit? Any variation from that today is mere noise. The story is to buy your straw hats in winter, and I think it is mid-summer for houses.

Just Thommo being thoughtful. (God forbid)

 

[Gee Cee]

Bargains Later

IMHO i really believe we have seen all the major growth. Now markets are stabilsed . If not going backwards.

As more properties come on line from building projects and others are sent to market from investors. Trends that we have seen since 2000 will divert back to what was predominant in the 80's. A BUYERS MARKET.

Prices may have stabilised now. But i really will not be burning rubber to get out and buy at present.

I do not think the majority of property you could purchased now would be that much higher in price in 3 yrs.

No I am not a investment advisor. But i just feel this is in line with former markets back in 1980, 1990 & maybe now.

Pull this post out in 10 years time and see what occured

Happy Investing

Gee Cee

 

[L Bernham]

I think you have it right there gee cee.

All the new supply coming on the market can not stop. There are too many companies that are in the business of building houses and apartments. They cant just go away, they need to keep building more and more. If it slowed they would have to lay off employees and that would further exacerbate the problem.
I think we will see a vicious cycle develop.

 

[House_Keeper]

I think you have it right there gee cee.

All the new supply coming on the market can not stop. There are too many companies that are in the business of building houses and apartments. They cant just go away, they need to keep building more and more. If it slowed they would have to lay off employees and that would further exacerbate the problem.
I think we will see a vicious cycle develop.

Well said LB.

The government has tried to "manage" the property market with the first home owners grant. It has targeted construction to prop up economic activity. If you had the property investment boom, that can only create an oversupply in the long term.

Sydney population is growing at a slower rate than Brisbane or Melbourne.

 

[House_Keeper]

HK, you did not say "You'll never buy at this price again" and I hope this was not your inference.

No I didn't say or meant that.

I'm not the type to try to guess the bottom of the market.

I'll just sit and watch for now...

 

[Mr Turkey]

If the downturn in property leads to increasing unemployment I think the govt/rba will move to very loose economic policies to promote inflation. They can always blame the war. So it could be that after trying to talk the property market down the govt will act to prop it up. In that case the value of property investors debt will go down. Inflation, isnt that the other half of the property investment plan?

This is what the US is doing. So I expect gold and commodities to go up in A$.

 

[Aceyducey]

Except that the comment that builders cannot stop is fairly irrelevant. We already discussed in this forum that builders are structured so that they can shift as appropriate to meet required demand - in Australia or elsewhere.

At current building rates Australia still cannot meet the demand for housing looking 5 years ahead. In fact there is currently a deficit in housing - it's about where property is being built!

This has been discussed and the appropriate studies and research linked via this forum in previous discussions.

As to increasing unemployment - it simply doesn't follow.

Please be careful not to build foundations on sand.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[House_Keeper]

Supply & demand

At current building rates Australia still cannot meet the demand for housing looking 5 years ahead. In fact there is currently a deficit in housing - it's about where property is being built!

This has been discussed and the appropriate studies and research linked via this forum in previous discussions.

Aceyducey,

Thanks for pointing that out.

I am still relatively new to this forum, so I have no knowledge of the previous discussions you are referring to. I have looked for it using the search facility, but I haven't come across any discussions that mentions studies in relation to supply and demand.

Would you mind pointing me in the right direction?

Much appreciated.

House_Keeper.

 

[Aceyducey]

I am still relatively new to this forum, so I have no knowledge of the previous discussions you are referring to. I have looked for it using the search facility, but I haven't come across any discussions that mentions studies in relation to supply and demand.

Would you mind pointing me in the right direction?

House_Keeper,

Here's two threads you should look at regarding housing supply.

I suggest you read the ANZ presentation - it's very interesting reading.

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12893&highlight=Property+shortage+oversupply

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?p=89277&highlight=construction+report#post89277

Cheers,

Aceyduceyhttp://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?p=89277&highlight=construction+report#post89277

 

[XBenX]

This forum tends to annoy me at times.

For the record I choose growth in line with CPI for the next few years...

 

[House_Keeper]

Fantastic.

Thanks for the links Aceyducey