Is the Sub-Prime Crisis in US going to affect IPs in Australia ?

[grossreal]

hi L.A aussie
sorry to say in some respects your wrong.
here we do have a credit score and its on every application for credit. there is a box that asks do you have a credit card and whats its limit.
and this does go towards or against your credit worthyness.
and a side line on that which most lender say does not happen and I had a very interesting conversation with a bank manager ( and this person was a manager not a card holder that thought that they were a manager)
and the conversation went like this that most lenders have a card attached and that card auto increases your limit if you pay the card off three time on consectative months so if you limit your card
pay it off within the months time limit then
max out again
pay off again with in the month
and max out again
and pay out again you will get a letter saying do you want to increase you limit.keep doing this and within a 6 month term you have 25k card unsecured.
and there is no real limit
as its not monitored its computer generated.
nor does the limit go backwards.
but this is a bit of a side line and a quirk in the system.
but yes there is a card score not the same as the us true.
in regard will the prime problem effect the aust market
yes it will just not yet
as the arms have not blown up yet they will come in 2008.
and then the full effect will happen.
by then we will have our own problems with rental cruch and the commercial markets own problems with supply or lack of it.
but that a very different post and not something that I would like to crystal ball at this stage.

 

[tubs]

Don't forget the USA had a shortage too in the middle of their boom - or so the realestate industry was saying at the time.

It was sub-prime that triggered the fallout but the core of the reason was absolutely no fundamentals holding up house prices. Even house prices in areas where 0.1% of people are subprime are now dropping in value.

The problem was a massive oversupply when everyone who had a subprime mortgage found their interest rate doubled overnight, and they had to sell.

Too much supply, not enough demand = dropping prices.

Since we dont have sub-prime type loans, the number of defaults are insignificant in comparison to the US.

 

[yieldmatters]

The problem was a massive oversupply when everyone who had a subprime mortgage found their interest rate doubled overnight, and they had to sell.

Too much supply, not enough demand = dropping prices.

Since we dont have sub-prime type loans, the number of defaults are insignificant in comparison to the US.

But those that had to sell - they are still living in a house somewhere right? They aren't now living in tents. So they still occupy a house - they just rent it. So my conlusion is the realestate institutes and the media were full of it - possibly ours are too.

But possibly those that had sub-prime have now moved to apartments or have bunked in together in fewer houses (i.e. more people per dwelling). That would increase supply. So maybe you have a point there.

 

[BayView]

So Gross,

is the credit score a separate actual score, or is it linked to the amount of limit on the card and the pattern of the payments on it?

I have never heard of an actual "score" in Aus, while over here there are ads on tv that ask things like: "are you credit impaired; is your credit score less than 400? We can help you" etc.

This is an actual figure that you can look up online and see how your travelling.

Good point about the credit card limit being a factor too; I'm sure a lot of people won't realise the LIMIT counts towards the servicability, not just the balance.

 

[BoatBoy]

I have never heard of an actual "score" in Aus, while over here there are ads on tv that ask things like: "are you credit impaired; is your credit score less than 400? We can help you" etc.

.

See Kal, he'll help.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oouQbcXdyH0

(for some reason it asks to confirm your age, there is nothing rude in it )

Dave

 

[Kennethkohsg]

But, that is all predicated on a steady re-pricing of debt, and hopefully the avoidance of a US recession which most commentators still suggest is unlikely. Its a big deal, but the global market should pull through OK, which means the little Aussie battler property market should pull through OK too.

Cheers,
Michael.

************************
Hi Michael,

1. I was watching CNBC News in Singapore yesterday when one of the panel analysts from ING Bank who was interviewed by CNBC, likens the magnitude of present US Credit Crunch Crisis to only about 10% what was last experienced by the world during last Asian Financial Crisis in 1997.

2. If this is indeed so, then I think that the market will have already "over-sold" itself on this crisis alone, to a large extent, and with the US Federal Reserve being tipped to cut its interest rates further this month.

3. The US Federal Secretary, Mr Paulson was also seen giving a press conference last night, announcing some new legislations, to combat the expected increasing ARM housing loan defaults in US during the 2008-2009 period.

4. The same lady analyst from the ING Bank reportedly sees the real threat as falling out from the unfolding of the Japanese yen carry-trades, instead, once the Central Bank of Japan start to increase its long term interest rate.

5. Another member of the panel experts interviewed by CNBC further suggest that the present immediate short term weakening of the US$ Currency is reportedly now over and the US$ Currency is expected to start recover its value vis-a-vis other major world currencies in 2008. Consequently, he believes that the oil price should be stablisiing or/and start to decline downwards in 2008, from its present historical record high prices.

6. The current market oil price was reported to be hovering aroung US$87-US$88 per barrel last night from its previous historical high when it was last seen flirting towards the US$100 per barrel mark.

7. While these are likely positive developments for the world (and for Australia) moving towards 2008, it is too early to effectively rule out the possibility of a post 2008 Beijing Olympic Games global financial crisis, from occuring in the near future.

8. The real global financial crisis is expected to set in some time in 2009 and it is expected to have a far more serious impact on the world economy than what we have presently witnessed in 2007 as arising from the US Credit Crunch and its housing slump related crises or/and from the other new crises that may unfold themsevles in 2008.


Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[MichaelW]

Kenneth,

I was with you on every single point from point 1 to point 6, but then you got to point 7 and 8 and I don't know where you came up with that stuff?

What makes you think post 2008 Beijing Olympics is the end of the world?

What makes you think the real global financial crisis is set to start in 2009?

Your first 6 points were well reasoned and argued points of view based on observable behaviours and market conditions. Points 7 and 8 just jump out of nowhere and completely contradict your first 6 points.

I too think the sub-prime thing has been over-played and markets the world over have been over-sold. I'm buying up big in resources and China as we speak and waiting for March 2008 to come and go so that all those ARMS can kick in and the world can see that its all over-sold. I compare the current sub-prime crisis with the Y2K crisis. All fluff and no substance.

I think the markets have already written down their assets sufficiently and therefore are now immune to future sub-prime write-downs. I also think China is a lot more resilient than it is given credit for, and that its expansion is only just beginning. Check back with me in 2009 and we can see who was right.

Cheers,
Michael.

 

[trendsta]

Kenneth,

I was with you on every single point from point 1 to point 6, but then you got to point 7 and 8 and I don't know where you came up with that stuff?

What makes you think post 2008 Beijing Olympics is the end of the world?

What makes you think the real global financial crisis is set to start in 2009?

Your first 6 points were well reasoned and argued points of view based on observable behaviours and market conditions. Points 7 and 8 just jump out of nowhere and completely contradict your first 6 points.

I too think the sub-prime thing has been over-played and markets the world over have been over-sold. I'm buying up big in resources and China as we speak and waiting for March 2008 to come and go so that all those ARMS can kick in and the world can see that its all over-sold. I compare the current sub-prime crisis with the Y2K crisis. All fluff and no substance.

I think the markets have already written down their assets sufficiently and therefore are now immune to future sub-prime write-downs. I also think China is a lot more resilient than it is given credit for, and that its expansion is only just beginning. Check back with me in 2009 and we can see who was right.

Cheers,
Michael.

Hi Michael and Kenneth,
I’m actually of the opposite view to you both regarding the credit crisis.

Firstly, Singapore CNBC statement that this is only 10% of asian financial crisis. The question is to who?? Maybe for Singapore and many other Asian countries, but definitely for US and to lesser extent Europe.

I too am interested in knowing why 2009-2010 is often touted as beginning of a long bear market. I have heard it a number of times and am interested in the reasoning.

In terms of sub-prime being over played and markets being over-sold. I think that’s a gross understatement. Massive one infact. Again this is my opinion only.

Some of things I highlighted weeks ago, like corporate profits shrinking due to corporations absorbing costs are starting to appear, in Australia and US. Next qtr 2008, first qtr, should be the key …

The US govt is fudging numbers to the max, to retain market confidence.. if they can sustain it till end of Q1 next year it will be smoother sailing. If not then … Lets see if the market is smart enough to see thru fudging (oh my oil up over 40% a year and inflation is below 2.5% yoy in US .. hmm .. maybe no-one in uses oi in the good ol US of A, or eats).

Inflation in US pegged countries… China – 6.5% and rising even with govt controls, Dubai – 10%, Saudi Arabia – 4.5% .. nope nothing to worry bout.. Just keep that printing that paper, she’ll be right mate...

 

[grossreal]

hi trendsta
I will tell you
why my crystal ball is saying 2009 to 2010 in sydney will be a turning point and other states are very different.
2003 was the last height in resi sales and at the height of 2003 heaps of development was going ( and I told a few lenders that a dog could get a loan to construct and it could)and then it corrected ( and alot of those dogs are dead now )and 7 year later 2010 will be the same( if you chart an area you will see).
the market has tightened to a very large degree
and rents are moving up on my calcs and again this is my view
they have hit the heights that the market should have already started to move
they haven't because of china and the material boom of wa and the cost of construction
as the cost has risen so has the margin been cut
when these two meet then the cranes will start again and the prices will rise this can't be stopped for ever
so end 2008 start 2009 will see the sites start to come out of the ground.( remembering that everything is a cycle).
and as sharks follow schools of minnows so do investors follow returns and when resi is down they turn to comm and when that drys up, they turn to resi.

the commercial market in wa and bris is red hot at the moment and the same is happening in syd when this happens investors move in when the comm has been used up they look to good old resi and its a case of supply and demand.
if the demand is there the price goes to a level that allows development.
simple reason why I am buying comm at the moment
the us market has not bottomed as yet and will hit around 2008 as the arm loans open and I don't think that they have been over estimated
I think that the us is in for a very big correction that has not happened as yet.
the china market has squewed our market a bit and has pushed it off its axis a bit
hence the time differences and the reason that you have the market turned 180 degrees.
usually you have sydney then bris then melb then perth moves.
you have perth, bris, sydney and then melb now.
but that will change as the market rights its self and the commodity boom is taken into account.
at some stage some thing has to happen to increase supply or reduce demand
well for the us they will reduce demand by reducing the cash flow to reduce demand( ie wipe lots off there bottom lines).
not sure what your crystal ball is tell you kenneth and I hope that its giving you an idea of how this crash is going to happen
because the numbers I see from wa, bris and sydney in commercial a lone is a very big growth and this is blue collar business so business growth.

and michael
I would very carefull in investing in china or its commodities
remembering that it is one of the only communist success countries
and they have never said that they will be anything but communist
yes they have opened there door to the west and just as quick as it has been opened it can be closed and I believe that it will.
so I would not be of the view that the commodity market is a endless gravy train
I think that they have a very long road to construct
but one thing that I have learnt from the chinese is that they are some of the best business people on this little rock we live on and are building a massive bank account.
they are one of the only traders with the likes of nigeria and have free trade with them. they are putting there feelers out in lots of different fields in the world and australia has not got the strangle hold on the commodity market.
thats not to say that there not alot of money to be made out of china it just you have to be very carefull how you tread and alot of the funds I have seen have not been that carefull for me.
just my view and my crystal ball remember that crystal balls do get fogged up every so often

 

[trendsta]

hi trendsta
I will tell you
why my crystal ball is saying 2009 to 2010 in sydney will be a turning point and other states are very different.
2003 was the last height in resi sales and at the height of 2003 heaps of development was going ( and I told a few lenders that a dog could get a loan to construct and it could)and then it corrected ( and alot of those dogs are dead now )and 7 year later 2010 will be the same( if you chart an area you will see).
the market has tightened to a very large degree
and rents are moving up on my calcs and again this is my view
they have hit the heights that the market should have already started to move
they haven't because of china and the material boom of wa and the cost of construction
as the cost has risen so has the margin been cut
when these two meet then the cranes will start again and the prices will rise this can't be stopped for ever
so end 2008 start 2009 will see the sites start to come out of the ground.( remembering that everything is a cycle).
and as sharks follow schools of minnows so do investors follow returns and when resi is down they turn to comm and when that drys up, they turn to resi.

the commercial market in wa and bris is red hot at the moment and the same is happening in syd when this happens investors move in when the comm has been used up they look to good old resi and its a case of supply and demand.
if the demand is there the price goes to a level that allows development.
simple reason why I am buying comm at the moment
the us market has not bottomed as yet and will hit around 2008 as the arm loans open and I don't think that they have been over estimated
I think that the us is in for a very big correction that has not happened as yet.
the china market has squewed our market a bit and has pushed it off its axis a bit
hence the time differences and the reason that you have the market turned 180 degrees.
usually you have sydney then bris then melb then perth moves.
you have perth, bris, sydney and then melb now.
but that will change as the market rights its self and the commodity boom is taken into account.
at some stage some thing has to happen to increase supply or reduce demand
well for the us they will reduce demand by reducing the cash flow to reduce demand( ie wipe lots off there bottom lines).
not sure what your crystal ball is tell you kenneth and I hope that its giving you an idea of how this crash is going to happen
because the numbers I see from wa, bris and sydney in commercial a lone is a very big growth and this is blue collar business so business growth.

and michael
I would very carefull in investing in china or its commodities
remembering that it is one of the only communist success countries
and they have never said that they will be anything but communist
yes they have opened there door to the west and just as quick as it has been opened it can be closed and I believe that it will.
so I would not be of the view that the commodity market is a endless gravy train
I think that they have a very long road to construct
but one thing that I have learnt from the chinese is that they are some of the best business people on this little rock we live on and are building a massive bank account.
they are one of the only traders with the likes of nigeria and have free trade with them. they are putting there feelers out in lots of different fields in the world and australia has not got the strangle hold on the commodity market.
thats not to say that there not alot of money to be made out of china it just you have to be very carefull how you tread and alot of the funds I have seen have not been that carefull for me.
just my view and my crystal ball remember that crystal balls do get fogged up every so often

Hi grossreal,
Thanks very much for the info .. Im not as tuned with the supply (development) side as I should be, and your thoughts are much appreciated. You are right even in Syd west suburbs where resi has been struggling, commercial and industrial has been powering for few years.. Same for CBD areas, and from what I have read Perth and Brisbane have been leading it, and Melb and Adel have also caught up in the comm action.

So in summary, is your cystal ball saying that 08/09 will see large no. of resi developments in Syd, which should have occurred now due to increase in rents etc but havent due to WA/QLD mineral boom, and in 2010 we will see a slump again?

I have seen 2010 been written as a general turning point for westen nations.. I thought the theory is based on demographics - over 500 mill rich westerners retiring from 2010-2020, causing a huge outflow of funds, thus inducing a prolonged bear market .. again, this is my assumption ..

 

[willair]

I have seen 2010 been written as a general turning point for westen nations.. I thought the theory is based on demographics - over 500 mill rich westerners retiring from 2010-2020, causing a huge outflow of funds, thus inducing a prolonged bear market .. again, this is my assumption ..

Trendsta
You could always do it in 90 days..willair..

http://youtube.com/watch?v=tgKgoxErl_Q

 

[grossreal]

hi trendsta
no my crystal ball says that we will have a huge grey power
looking for units near the sea and near to airports
and its pointing to the us florida market
saying that in that state more real estate is being sold to grey power long term stays then any other
and this is what your crystal ball is tell you
for the outflowing of cash I think you will see it as inpoaring into rv, boats, units, cars and high end stuff
and thats the reason that the florida boaty groups are buying high end units.
I see that we will have a very large up swing in both resi and comm in sydney
there are no cranes to any great deal on the skyline at the moment
so its a bit off before the demand is going down so it to hard to call that one.
my ball is being polished by a report by colliers that the sydney market is looking at 8% growth in end value and 6 % growth in rents and that was 2006 well its been corrected to 20% in growth and 25% in rentals and there were no cranes when they did that report either.
when funds buy 135 mil complete buildings (ge) (and hunter street just sold) and in the case of 15 bent street 5 x 15 storey building ammalgemate pull down and rebuild
some one else is polishing there crystal ball as well.
I am in a buying mode at the moment and have two across the line with another two to come off and then I'm out of the commercial market until 2013 and will ride the wave.
I think that you will see some very serious money into the sydney market before 2009/2010 both resi and comm.
I am still into the develp of resi and see that it will be heading up
the question is when.
my crystal ball can only tell me how a market will go
not when a lender will start to lend.
resi is very different to comm and margins control both markets
one you look at making a margin and the other the tennant tells you the margin.
and at the moment lenders are lending on comm and the margins are there so its very good buying.
I have posted the floor plates for sydney and if people would add to them it makes my job a bit easier as I can then work out returns when looking at buying.
I do believe that the market will correct in 2011 to what degree depends on mr rudd and what or how he gets the cranes on the sky line but he best hurry says my crystal ball.
the american market does effect me in that its get lender worried and thats not good for borrowers but apart from that has very little effect.
so in answer to your question will there be large developments in sydney 2008 2009 no there can't be.
of that I am pritty certain
and thats with or without my crystal ball
as they have to go in get approved first
and I can't see them on the horizon
thats why mr rudd needs to get his skates on.
there is millions of dollars in pipeline projects for sydney and they haven't even started.
why
simple
as I said before its margin driven and the margins arn't there at the moment.
they are there for comm.
if you can look at you crystal ball and tell me when the blacktown market will move it would be good as they have a huge number of da sites sat there gathering rain drops but will not be out of the ground until I would say 2011.
but again my crystal ball can only tell me the future
its no good on the past.
and is only as good as the information I polish it with.
and does get it wrong.
but I like it anyway

 

[MichaelW]

That extends the question to the degree to which the global economy is still US-centric. China used to export a lot more to the US than they do currently. China's economy is now predominately based on domestic demand. They're US exports are only 19% pf total exports so arguably we are less US-centric than previously. For a detailed account of China's economic outlook here's a recent article by Dr Shane Oliver of AMP Capital.

http://www.amp.com.au/display/file/...e=China+-+growth+and+shares+-+OI+#39+2007.pdf

So, if the US goes into recession, then arguably the world no longer need follow them down that route.

Hi guys,

Back to the original question, and it seems I'm not alone with my opinion that the world is no longer US-centric and that a US recession will not necessarily have any flow on effect on China's expansion or the Australian economy.

Here's an article today stating that Rio Tinto's internal analyst reached this conclusion after months of detailed modelling.

http://business.smh.com.au/only-china-can-derail-boom/20071205-1f6r.html

As I've stated before, onwards and upwards for the little aussie battler, and in particular for China and Commodity plays where my money is. But this is still just my opinion. I share it here in the hope that it balances some of the negativity that you read in the broader media that invariably sells newspapers. Take it or leave it as you see fit. I just hope it helps extend your thinking...

Cheers,
Michael

PS Market up strongly this morning...

 

[willair]

This is one of those major on-going issues..

What do the experts of Somersoft have to say about this ?

Foreclosures almost doubled in October from a year earlier as subprime borrowers failed to make higher payments, Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc. said Nov. 29. Credit Suisse Group analysts project 775,000 homes with $143 billion of mortgage debt will go into foreclosure in the next two years. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a0OMdMWX8ipw&refer=news


As i don't have a crystal ball , but you only have to read what is happening in the world,the Australian Banks are warning that rates will rise early next year, stock markets up and down like a yo-yo,property prices in some area's are still on the upward trend so i don't see any problems till the middle of next year,with the general costs of living,plus bigger mortgages, things may be different, just depends on how you spread out your investment...willair..

 

[Kennethkohsg]

Hi guys,

Back to the original question, and it seems I'm not alone with my opinion that the world is no longer US-centric and that a US recession will not necessarily have any flow on effect on China's expansion or the Australian economy.

Here's an article today stating that Rio Tinto's internal analyst reached this conclusion after months of detailed modelling.

http://business.smh.com.au/only-china-can-derail-boom/20071205-1f6r.html

As I've stated before, onwards and upwards for the little aussie battler, and in particular for China and Commodity plays where my money is. But this is still just my opinion. I share it here in the hope that it balances some of the negativity that you read in the broader media that invariably sells newspapers. Take it or leave it as you see fit. I just hope it helps extend your thinking...

Cheers,
Michael

PS Market up strongly this morning...

*******************************************
Dear Michael,

1. According to John Waples, The Times Business Editor, it was reported in the local Australian Newspapers today that

"...this financial crisis would spill well into 2008, that the write-offs from the big banks would continue - particularly if rating agencies downgraded debt - and that the only way out was for a number of banks to raise fresh funds in the market."

".... (that) last week’s $US100 billion ($A1.16 billion) bailout from the world’s central banks would not be enough."

" The bigger concern, he said, was if the credit crisis spilt over into the wider economy, dragged the US into recession and then seeped into the rest of the world."

"...If this happened, then not even China would escape."

"Unlike Black Monday in October 1987, this time there has not been a stock market crash - instead, it looks like a deep and more prolonged slide."

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22936111-20142,00.html


2. The SMH also reported today that

"The Australian stock market shredded $54 billion worth of market value today as the global credit crunch claimed its largest Australian victim yet.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 fell more than 3.5 per cent, or 228.2 points to 6263.5 points - exceeding the market rout which followed the September 11 attacks.

This equates to the shares in the index losing more than $54 billion of market value today.

The big drop followed an earnings downgrade by Centro Property Group, which caused carnage among local property trusts.

Centro warned that it was recently unable to refinance some maturing debt. The news saw its shares - which traded above $10 this year - down 74 per cent to $1.47, shedding around $3.5 billion of market value. '

http://business.smh.com.au/greenspan-sees-stagflation-signs/20071217-1hgm.html

3. If you think 2007 is indeed an exceptional bad year for ASX or/and that the worst of the credit crunch or/and the global financial markets turmoil is over, folllowing this ASX stock market crash today, I think that you will soon be in for a big surprise eventually.

4. Personally, I expect more bleeding to continue throughout 2008 and well into post Beijing Olympics Games period of 2009.

5. For your further comments/discussion, please.

6. Thank you.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[Kennethkohsg]

Dear GrossReal,

1. In terms of existing property cycle and timing for the Sydney property market from 2008-2011, I believe that we are quite close in our respective assessment.

2. However, despite the recent change in the Australian Federal Govt and the RBA under Glenn Steven, you seem to remain very confident that the Australian Economy and its various housing markets will continue to grow and operate unscathed as per its last 16 years of continued economic prosperity, and as per its present ongoing property/business cycle trends.

3. This is despite your crystal ball projecting the same major global financial crises occuring outside Australia, from 2008-2010 period.

4. What are the basis for your continued positive optimism in the Australian Economy and its various housing markets?

5. Care to further share with your own thoughts with us, in this forum, please?

6. Thank you.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[Kennethkohsg]

Dear Michael,

According to Stephen Roach, who is chairman of the Morgan Stanley investment bank and trading firm's Asian arm,

" The US is heading for a recession and the rest of the world would be 'dead wrong' to think this will not impact growing Asian economies"

"...... that it was wrong to think that the rapidly developing economies of China and India could fully compensate for a US recession."

"...Growth in Asia was export-led, with the American consumer often the 'end game' of the Asian growth machine...The US is a US$9.5 trillion consumer. China is a US$1 trillion consumer. India's a US$650 billion consumer"

"... that the US Federal Reserve Bank would 'most assuredly' cut interest rates again soon to boost the economy, following last week's 25 basis point reduction. 'The US is going into recession ...the Federal Reserve have a lot more work to do. They could cut their policy short-term interest rate by one to one-and-a- half percentage points over the next nine to 12 months."

"....What is interesting, and potentially disturbing, is that the rest of the world just doesn't think this is a big deal any more,' he said of the potential of a US recession. 'There is a view that the world is somehow decoupled from the American growth engine."

" I think that view will turn out to be dead wrong, and this is a global event with consequences for Asia and Australia."

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/news/story/0,4574,260604,00.html?

For your further comments/discussion, please.

Thank you.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[alexlee]

Admittedly Roach has been a bear for years. Eventually he'll call it right.
Alex

 

[tubs]

2. However, despite the recent change in the Australian Federal Govt and the RBA under Glenn Steven, you seem to remain very confident that the Australian Economy and its various housing markets will continue to grow and operate unscathed as per its last 16 years of continued economic prosperity, and as per its present ongoing property/business cycle trends.

Kenneth

I think you are overstating the impact the Govt has on the housing market. In fact, the only impact they have had on it over the last few years is fuelling demand with FHOGs, and limiting supply by ensuring we fall about 10% short of our needs for new property each year.

Fact is, there are more people than there are houses. This aint changing, regardless of who's in power. I think you may be overstating the importance of the government in the property market.

 

[BayView]

Every time the govt gets involved in the property market, it's a disaster.

1980's - removed neg gearing benefits. Wholesale off-loading of properties, causing a housing slump and rent spikes due to lack of rental properties.

FHOG - fuelled another price increase frenzy, affecting affordability (so we keep being told by the FHB's).

NSW - extra tax on sale of properties. Caused a big drop in investor interest in that state, contributing to the price stalling.

Look out; Lapdance Kev is in the house! Now there's a wild card.