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3. As a small investor with limited funds, I simply cannot afford to take on these kind of unneccessary risks under the ALP Government, such as 18% high interest increase to be followed immediately by the "Recession that Australia need to have" in 1991 and ALP Government's trial-and-error attempt to tinker around with the CGT policy again.
Doesn't anyone else see the contradictions here?
Property doubles every seven years, I'm investing for the long term and short term (3yrs?) downturns don't worry me and many other mantras have been posted here ad nauseam. What has changed?
I genuinely hope the weak hands do panic tomorrow: I have some dry powder. But it won't happen. The professionals will have already made any adjustments they think necessary.
Move along! Nothing to see here. LOL
I'm sorry but it is somewhat naive to think that market falls will result as a move to the Rudd government.
I believe that the reason this Nation with such a great economy tossed aside the "great Party" is because the Liberal's have failed on several fronts - social policy, workers rights, the environment, poor foreign policy....the list goes on.
The biggest threat to this Country's prosperity isn't Labor assuming office on Monday, it is what is going on in the world economy right now - if the markets drop on Monday it certainly won't be because Rudd is PM, it will be because the markets have been dropping over the last several weeks as the US Credit crunch progressively unwinds and more and more losses are revealed as the US economy inches closer to possible recession.
I can't see Rudd modifying current CGT treatment in any significant way. His "me too" stance on the economy wouldn't allow this significant a shift. His position on being an economic conservative is something that I believe sincerely.
I respect people's right to different views on politics, but claiming stock markets and property markets will fall simply because of this change in government are somewhat misguided - it's like claiming that interest rates will go up more now that Labor is in power (they almost certainly will, but it won't be because Labor is in power).
My view that this election is almost the election you wouldn't wish on any party - the coming years are going to be extremely turbulant for the world and the increasingly corellated world markets, and this is going to effect Australia in a significant way.
******************just like they did in the 80's?
**************I very much doubt that we will see the 18% interest rates of that era because, as everyone seems to forget or ignore, they are now set by the RBA, not the government, and monetary policy has evolved since then.
We've discussed this to death so I am responding more for the benefit of others. I can't let these comments slip. Blind faith in the "property will always outperform" religion will get people into trouble.Property doubles every 7-10 years on average.
1. Out of personal curiosity, who does the RBA actually answer to, at this point in time?
2. ... To my own surprise, I have just read from Shane's research study article (Page 5) and learnt for the first time that the Australian PM "effectively controls the fiscal policy in Australia" (through the House of Representatives). ...and Not the Treasurer nor the Finance Minister nor the RBA. Do you agree?
3. When Australia last went into a recession in 1991, I believe that it went it alone, without the rest of the world being similarly caught in the same recession, isn't it?
I'm sorry but it is somewhat naive to think that market falls will result as a move to the Rudd government.
......
I respect people's right to different views on politics, but claiming stock markets and property markets will fall simply because of this change in government are somewhat misguided - it's like claiming that interest rates will go up more now that Labor is in power (they almost certainly will, but it won't be because Labor is in power).
My view that this election is almost the election you wouldn't wish on any party - the coming years are going to be extremely turbulant for the world and the increasingly corellated world markets, and this is going to effect Australia in a significant way.
Successful people will succeed regardless of which party is in power, the state of the economy etc.....not find excuses.
We've discussed this to death so I am responding more for the benefit of others. I can't let these comments slip. Blind faith in the "property will always outperform" religion will get people into trouble.
If you are talking "all property on average" doubling every 7-10 years then even if it was true in the past then moving forward it is a nonsense idea. Take today's prices and double them and ask how can this be funded? Wages to double? I don't think so. Debt to double? Again I don't think so. Specific areas might double though - I accep that.
Back to Labor - in theory it shouldn't make any difference but it might in that it may give people a reason to lose confidence in property. The next few months will give an indicator I suppose.
I walked outside this morning and the sky hadn't fallen in. Everyone is very ernest and serious dare I say, for a Sunday morning.
OK so far.I didnt say that just because Labor is in power that everything will fall.
Why contradict yourself in the next sentence?I said the shock of labors (unexperienced economic managers) new win will cause market to fall sharply on first day trade.
.
I just think the monday drop will show Australia how the educated shareholders feel about this new leadership.
Are we talking about the same naive ones who blamed Paul Keating, not Paul Volker, last time?Another thing is that we all know that rates are rising and that the reserve makes this decision independant of the government. But I also know that there are a lot of niave ppl in this country who will blame Labor anyway. Just like they blamed Howard when they went up under him.
Any other currency traders on here?
Will you be shorting the A$? You must be the only currency trader caught out by this result. You may be right, but there is no point in being both right and dead.