Media, how are we suppose to get any idea?
- Thread starter random
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OK the 30% was over the last 18 months and I think it was taken from 3 months ago or so.
The lowest sales in the last 10 years is the lowest volume of sales not the lowest sale prices.
They write pieces to be both sensationalist on booms and busts. Saying it will be a slow grind up or down does not sell anything even though both bullish and bearish commentators seem to agree either way it will be a slow moving market unless the Australian economy changes gears.
The lowest sales in the last 10 years is the lowest volume of sales not the lowest sale prices.
They write pieces to be both sensationalist on booms and busts. Saying it will be a slow grind up or down does not sell anything even though both bullish and bearish commentators seem to agree either way it will be a slow moving market unless the Australian economy changes gears.
cited from what source?
REIV?
REIV?
The cheaper end of Melb has gone up - no doubt about it. More to come. Its the middling and upper ends that have seen little or no gain.
You can't trust any organisation with a vested interest. The media love to sell stories. Turn on your b#11&hit filter.
The only way to really know is to look at lists of property for sale, check the ABS, check other reputable sources, network online, and generally make your own mind up. This stuff is only indicative anyway, you'll still need to put your own deals together that fit your strategy.
The only way to really know is to look at lists of property for sale, check the ABS, check other reputable sources, network online, and generally make your own mind up. This stuff is only indicative anyway, you'll still need to put your own deals together that fit your strategy.
Not always. Economists say that prices of houses are "sticky" in that they don't always respond to supply and demand as is the case for other more liquid commodities. If a person with a job can't get the price he wants for his home, more often than not he wont sell. Hence the low volumes.
Of course, this situation would be different in a recession or if someone lost their job.
Like so many others, you are laboring under the false belief that prices MUST fall for the entire asset class of Aussie property. Why? Because it's happened in the USA. Well, Australia is not the USA. We don't have non-recourse loans here. Most Aussies wouldn't dream of walking away from a loan. And rightly so, paying up is the honest thing to do. And when folks don't pay up, Aussie banks chase them until they get paid.
I'll address your 2nd paragraph first. What you are describing is what causes a crash in prices, not an orderly decline in property prices over a few years. Ive seen a few cycles and of course there will be no crash, but there will be flat lining/falls for the next say 5 years.
Again, if people are forced to sell their homes, that will cause a crash. If people just lower their prices to get offers, it will precede an orderly download trend in prices. Not a crash.
I'll say it again, falling volumes always precede falling prices.
Again, if people are forced to sell their homes, that will cause a crash. If people just lower their prices to get offers, it will precede an orderly download trend in prices. Not a crash.
I'll say it again, falling volumes always precede falling prices.
You imply that an orderly decline is set to occur. You also say, more directly, that falls and flat-lining will take place over 5 years. But wait a bit. Australia is a huge place, with many cities and towns. Surely some micro-markets will do better than others? The only way the entire market can flatline in unison is if there are price control laws put in place in relation to property sales. Julia isn't a Maoist. That is something which will never happen.
With the prospect for property looking so gloomy, are you planning on selling out in entirety? Perhaps you can buy back in after 5 years?
As with most posters that are proven wrong, you continually move the goal posts from point to point.
Yes a whole country can fall. Or flatline. Or go up. Together. Done belive the hype about micro markets miraculously going in opposite directions. If it is happening, we wont be able to find them. LOL
Can i ask how many property cycles you have seen? Your posts seem to lack a bit of experience. Or i should say, theory rather than practical knowledge.
Yes a whole country can fall. Or flatline. Or go up. Together. Done belive the hype about micro markets miraculously going in opposite directions. If it is happening, we wont be able to find them. LOL
Can i ask how many property cycles you have seen? Your posts seem to lack a bit of experience. Or i should say, theory rather than practical knowledge.
This bit I definitely agree with. There'll always be exceptions to the rule, but this to me is by far the most likely outcome.
It is unwise to paint all Australian property with the same negative brush, as many people seek to do.
I spend a fair amount of time in Japan and, respectfully, I disagree with what you say. Barely two decades ago, Japan was a huge property bubble. The market has since deflated, as happens to all bubbles - be they property, stocks, tulips or commodities.
Contrary to what you say, micro-markets do not always move in unison. Certain parts of major cities in Japan have seen significant price rises over the last two years. And other parts have fallen even further into the abyss. Still other parts have been levitated up by property spruikers who are into the ski-holiday business. Nothing seems to be moving in unison.
I spend a fair amount of time in Japan and, respectfully, I disagree with what you say. Barely two decades ago, Japan was a huge property bubble. The market has since deflated, as happens to all bubbles - be they property, stocks, tulips or commodities.
Contrary to what you say, micro-markets do not always move in unison. Certain parts of major cities in Japan have seen significant price rises over the last two years. And other parts have fallen even further into the abyss. Still other parts have been levitated up by property spruikers who are into the ski-holiday business. Nothing seems to be moving in unison.
It's not that you wait with baited breath on what dribble they'll contradictorily come out with next , common media are the last people I take much notice of.
But , your ears still can't help but atleast scan through the bits and pieces and their overall picture is none the less a small part of your perspective in the end.
Me , I more feel for the general public because they depend on these people. Even my sister inlaw for example said to me just the other day, look we really wanna pick up a new place right now , they're all screaming there's never been a better time to buy.
I'm ahhh - what , that was scary, you listen to that !!!
But hey they do it seems, so I guess what I'm getting at is that those people hold a lot of responsibility in their hands and should get their crap straight now and then.
Cheers
But , your ears still can't help but atleast scan through the bits and pieces and their overall picture is none the less a small part of your perspective in the end.
Me , I more feel for the general public because they depend on these people. Even my sister inlaw for example said to me just the other day, look we really wanna pick up a new place right now , they're all screaming there's never been a better time to buy.
I'm ahhh - what , that was scary, you listen to that !!!
But hey they do it seems, so I guess what I'm getting at is that those people hold a lot of responsibility in their hands and should get their crap straight now and then.
Cheers
Too many doomsayers out there. Provided YOU do your homework and never pay too much for a house, it is hard to go wrong. If you are in Melbourne and are buying a house (not a unit) for, say, $300,000 - $350,000, its hard to see you losing money on a deal like that over the next few years. There are good deals out there, if you are prepared to spend time looking for them. Listen to nobody - do the homework and follow your own inner voice.
I agree with Meconium on this if you look at volumes alone it could mean either up or down but all it does say is that a turning point is likely occuring now.
Falling volume only points to a turning point it does not give an indication of price direction.
Stock levels give an indication of likely price movement and while they are high there is some indication they are falling.
There is certainly some hope after reading Aarons post on another thread that Perth stock volumes are falling in spite of falling sales volumes indicating an unwillingness on the part of sellers to meet the market.
I personally would not buy now but keep an eye on stock levels. If they keep falling with sellers taking stock off market it could as easily mean it gets to the point prices start rising again albeit with a steady flow of stock coming back on to temper any price gains.
That said stock levels may start rising again this year and if they do I would be continuing to wait to see what happens. I know it makes many of you sick I think like this even for a PPOR but I cannot see the sense in not spending as much time to get it right as an investor spending 500k on a place?
Anyway I might be able to afford a place and as July nears I will get pre approval and then be ready for any event. Again though will not buy while stock is this high though even if the press assures me 2half of 2011 will improve... Wait for stock to fall to a level that confirms prices may be turning north again. No point moving before if you are not alredy in. This is by the way very different to saying sell sell sell into a weak market if you already own due to purchase costs etc.
I know you cannot trade houses very easily unless you are a developer and can add significant value but you might as well time the entry into the market if you have that opportunity not just jump in when weakness is apparent (not confirmed as you suggest meconium) and you don't know which way next?
Falling volume only points to a turning point it does not give an indication of price direction.
Stock levels give an indication of likely price movement and while they are high there is some indication they are falling.
There is certainly some hope after reading Aarons post on another thread that Perth stock volumes are falling in spite of falling sales volumes indicating an unwillingness on the part of sellers to meet the market.
I personally would not buy now but keep an eye on stock levels. If they keep falling with sellers taking stock off market it could as easily mean it gets to the point prices start rising again albeit with a steady flow of stock coming back on to temper any price gains.
That said stock levels may start rising again this year and if they do I would be continuing to wait to see what happens. I know it makes many of you sick I think like this even for a PPOR but I cannot see the sense in not spending as much time to get it right as an investor spending 500k on a place?
Anyway I might be able to afford a place and as July nears I will get pre approval and then be ready for any event. Again though will not buy while stock is this high though even if the press assures me 2half of 2011 will improve... Wait for stock to fall to a level that confirms prices may be turning north again. No point moving before if you are not alredy in. This is by the way very different to saying sell sell sell into a weak market if you already own due to purchase costs etc.
I know you cannot trade houses very easily unless you are a developer and can add significant value but you might as well time the entry into the market if you have that opportunity not just jump in when weakness is apparent (not confirmed as you suggest meconium) and you don't know which way next?
Let's not overcomplicate things with talk of volume etc.
You don't need a PhD or even a high school knowledge of calculus to buy cheaply - its just common sense. If you look hard enough you will find something that is so discounted it hits you in the face, particularly in the cheapest decile of the Melbourne market.
You need to look at hundreds of properties online before buying a cheapie that meets your needs. Few people are willing to do that. Even fewer people are willing to buy into low-status suburbs that could give them great capital gains in the future. No bragging rights in buying in Frankston or some other dumpy suburb where the bogans live.
You don't need a PhD or even a high school knowledge of calculus to buy cheaply - its just common sense. If you look hard enough you will find something that is so discounted it hits you in the face, particularly in the cheapest decile of the Melbourne market.
You need to look at hundreds of properties online before buying a cheapie that meets your needs. Few people are willing to do that. Even fewer people are willing to buy into low-status suburbs that could give them great capital gains in the future. No bragging rights in buying in Frankston or some other dumpy suburb where the bogans live.
Yeh sorry I do overcomplicate things.
Basically for me in my area stock levels are high and while this gives me lots of choice it also indicates weakness.
I would rather wait till I know what way the market will go next but clearly it is about to go somewhere with falling volumes as well.
I do agree though it is possible that a house is priced at such a discount for quick sale that you just sod it and buy even if lots of stock is around. Indeed it is only while lots of stock is around this is likely to happen.
Problem is those houses the agents usually buy first... "Yeh my house seller you are really going to struggle to get this sold in a few weeks I have to declare an interest here but I think I can help you out..."
Edit: Thats gold. see your top line. I knew the rationale behind your post before you posted the summary at the top and even used your exact wording before you did! You clearly have an eloquent way of writing such that I recieve the message without you having to state the obvious when you want to.
