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Last week News 24 reckons some of Melbourne's West went up 30% in this last 12 mths.
QUOTE]
how do you get any idea?
you THINK for yourself.
The news cycle is there to benefit some and hinder others.
As an allocator of ones own capital, you get to choose.
I caught up with someone in the investment community today for coffee. We were talking about 'retail schmucks'.
There was an interesting survey done some time ago on US equity returns. The story went like this:
the return from mutual funds over the period covered was around 9% (after paying for the mutual fund fees). Not great, but not really bad either. Satisfactory i how i would lable it.
Now the same return from those retail investors who invested in mutual funds over the same period: around 2%-3%.
Why the big difference?
because they chopped and changed according to which ever fund had the best near term performance, because they entered and exited in an attempt to 'market time'.
So the key for me is the old quote: 'do you feel lucky punk, well do yah'.
Falling volumes always precede falling prices.
t.
Not always. Economists say that prices of houses are "sticky" in that they don't always respond to supply and demand as is the case for other more liquid commodities. If a person with a job can't get the price he wants for his home, more often than not he wont sell. Hence the low volumes.
Of course, this situation would be different in a recession or if someone lost their job.
Like so many others, you are laboring under the false belief that prices MUST fall for the entire asset class of Aussie property. Why? Because it's happened in the USA. Well, Australia is not the USA. We don't have non-recourse loans here. Most Aussies wouldn't dream of walking away from a loan. And rightly so, paying up is the honest thing to do. And when folks don't pay up, Aussie banks chase them until they get paid.
I'll address your 2nd paragraph first. What you are describing is what causes a crash in prices, not an orderly decline in property prices over a few years. Ive seen a few cycles and of course there will be no crash, but there will be flat lining/falls for the next say 5 years.
Again, if people are forced to sell their homes, that will cause a crash. If people just lower their prices to get offers, it will precede an orderly download trend in prices. Not a crash. .
You imply that an orderly decline is set to occur. You also say, more directly, that falls and flat-lining will take place over 5 years. But wait a bit. Australia is a huge place, with many cities and towns. Surely some micro-markets will do better than others? The only way the entire market can flatline in unison is if there are price control laws put in place in relation to property sales. Julia isn't a Maoist. That is something which will never happen.
With the prospect for property looking so gloomy, are you planning on selling out in entirety? Perhaps you can buy back in after 5 years?
... Ive seen a few cycles and of course there will be no crash, but there will be flat lining/falls for the next say 5 years.
Yes a whole country can fall. Or flatline. Or go up. Together. Done belive the hype
e just the other day, look we really wanna pick up a new place right now , they're all screaming there's never been a better time to buy. Cheers
You don't need a PhD or even a high school knowledge of calculus to buy cheaply - its just common sense. If you look hard enough you will find something that is so discounted it hits you in the face, particularly in the cheapest decile of the Melbourne market.
You need to look at hundreds of properties before buying a cheapie that meets your needs. Few people are willing to do that.