Hi Kevin
When we put our own true stories on the forum, it allows us to discuss and compare real stories and figures and that is good for the forum. We also run the risk of inadvertently saying something out of place about someone else's situation and that can be difficult. I made that error with Jamie.
I am not very familiar with the geography of Victoria, however, let me make some comments.
Your parents decided to move to Cranbourne out of Melbourne for a number of reasons which in part may have included job opportunities for your father (and Mother), proximity to schools, shops, family lifestyle and all those other things which your parents would have considered.
We discuss these requirements for home purchase here on the forum but mostly we discuss investment property and all that goes with it. The thought processes used to buy a "family home to live in" as opposed to an investment property, differ.
With investment, one of the factors we consider is potential growth, Capital Gain, and we may look for investments in an area where land is in short supply to help increase the value of our investment, whereas your parents may have rated land availability as a lesser factor of importance.
Therefore for this, and other reasons, the increase in value in your parents home has not been as great as perhaps elsewhere.
We often talk about the "mean average" price of real estate. That means that there are as many properties of a similar type valued above the mean average price as below it.
So is that "typical" of your parents home? Respectfully, perhaps yes.
As you have stated, you pick the right places for investment and go on from there, and you then discuss negative / positive gearing.
I don't think that anyone should "rely on a promise of future capital gain" to make their investment sink or swim. However, if we choose the area carefully, consider ALL the other factors which go into investing then we can consider some gain in value of the property. The risk is that if we attempt to hang everything on the maximum gain, we may find ourselves in trouble.
In general, if we look at capital gain on a moving decade basis over the last 100 years, ( and there have been 100 decades in this time) we find that there has NEVER been a decade in Australia when capital gain did not occur. Some better than others but always there, and that includes the big depression of the thirties, five major stock bear markets of several years duration, two world wars and a couple of lesser ones and what else?
Now some people can immediately point to areas of land where this may not have occurred and that may be true for specific areas, BUT we are talking about investment and we are looking more at this type of land than at specific land where an unusual event has developed.
I agree, Negative Gearing is not always a winner, nor is Positive Gearing nor the Stock Market nor Lotto nor many other things but you have to have a go or look forward to the pension at retirement. What pension?
Regards
Ross