Perth - madness.

[stretchy]

Interesting point about listings yadreamin - I would love to find a state-wide statistic to track market inventory. Has anyone found such a stat? Only thing I ever found is the ABS stats, which are a little too broad to detect market states in a reasonable timeframe.

Some bloggers in the US are using some pretty good stats to analyse the market over there - since July inventory has risen to 9-year highs which is a pretty good indication of a peak. It doesnt seem like poor old Australia supplies that level of statistics.

 

[Ausprop]

is this what you mean?

http://www.reiwa.com.au/Art/Art-Public-View.cfm?PageUUID=a6307f2961b9$0F$28$1-13-Aug-2006-01:29:06:926&Id=5060

 

[stretchy]

Kind of... I would have a little more faith if they came from an institution who has a vested interest in hawking the good times but its certainly the best local source of statistics.

I really dont have an arguement againt such low numbers. It seems like nothing bad can really happen while supply is low.

 

[stretchy]

A follow-up to my previous post (after reading the REIWA news archives):

The great housing shortage:
http://www.reiwa.com.au/Art/Art-Public-View.cfm?PageUUID=a6303a0ef1afn$DE$BD$-13-Aug-2006-04:45:18:285&Id=7320

Periods of low stock levels are common, but normally these periods are quickly followed by steep rises in the number of available properties as sellers take advantage of the market. In the 1994 housing boom, stocks in Perth fell to 6,000 homes but by 1995 there were almost 20,000 homes for sale.

So large shifts in supply can occur quickly. Coupled with this:
Big drop in WA first home buyers:
http://www.reiwa.com.au/Art/Art-Public-View.cfm?PageUUID=a6303a0ef1afn$DE$BD$-13-Aug-2006-04:47:12:410&Id=7440

Figures released yesterday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, reveal a sharp drop during the June quarter in the numbers of West Australian first home buyers taking out a mortgage.

Perhaps I spoke too soon.

 

[redwing]

HOWS THIS..

132 Victoria Avenue Dalkeith (3018sqm)just sold for just under $14M..

Purchased in Feb 2004 for $6.5M; that a Cap Gain of $7.5M in 2 1/2 Years

 

[Ausprop]

my Dalkeith dreams are fading....

 

[Tizzy]

Perhaps the seller was happy to downsize to a modest $10 mill property so he could use $4 mill to fund some lifestyle choices. Its the new thing to do.

 

[Dazz]

HOWS THIS..

132 Victoria Avenue Dalkeith (3018sqm)just sold for just under $14M..

Purchased in Feb 2004 for $6.5M; that a Cap Gain of $7.5M in 2 1/2 Years

Hi Redwing,

We saw that in the paper also, but unfortunately the journo only told half the story. The full story is far more interesting.

It is true he bought it for 6.5 MM in Feb 04. What the article didn't say, was that for 6.5 MM he got two titles side by side, 4905 sqm of dirt all up. One title was 1887 sqm with a 4x2 house on it. The other was the larger 3018 sm with a 5 bed white Georgian box.

As soon as he bought both for 6.5 MM, he immediately put up for sale the smaller 4x2 house for 4.0 MM. People thought he was a bit cheeky but it sold within 6 months. That meant, he effectively got the larger block and mansion for 2.5 MM plus costs.

As a second move, he sold the bigger one for just under 14 MM. With an asking price of 15 to 16 (which again was pretty cheeky) he got away with a grand prize indeed.

As a side note, the combined two titles sat dormant for about 8 months, forlornly sittign there on the for sale shelf back in late 03 and early 04 with no takers. Admittedly you needed a few bickies to purchase it, but there were plenty in this suburb who were capable but passed up the opportunity.

 

[redwing]

You're right Dazzling,

Thats much more interesting and impressive

Money begets Money

People in Dalkeith must be happy with the prices of late and glad they're in one of the *primo* suburbs

RedWing

 

[Dazz]

People in Dalkeith must be happy

Dunno, living in Koondoola, we don't get to rub shoulders with those toffs.

 

[stockt12]

Hi Redwing,

We saw that in the paper also, but unfortunately the journo only told half the story. The full story is far more interesting.

It is true he bought it for 6.5 MM in Feb 04. What the article didn't say, was that for 6.5 MM he got two titles side by side, 4905 sqm of dirt all up. One title was 1887 sqm with a 4x2 house on it. The other was the larger 3018 sm with a 5 bed white Georgian box.

As soon as he bought both for 6.5 MM, he immediately put up for sale the smaller 4x2 house for 4.0 MM. People thought he was a bit cheeky but it sold within 6 months. That meant, he effectively got the larger block and mansion for 2.5 MM plus costs.

As a second move, he sold the bigger one for just under 14 MM. With an asking price of 15 to 16 (which again was pretty cheeky) he got away with a grand prize indeed.

As a side note, the combined two titles sat dormant for about 8 months, forlornly sittign there on the for sale shelf back in late 03 and early 04 with no takers. Admittedly you needed a few bickies to purchase it, but there were plenty in this suburb who were capable but passed up the opportunity.

My goodness! Now.. no matter what sort of strategy one might have in place, nothing beats having money to burn to allow for such a gain to happen.

 

[kero]

the rich gets richer...

 

[tonyd]

My wife spoke with a Vic Park agent today.

He got 5 listings last week.

They are all gone.

cheers, Tony

 

[paulie]

I have had an interesting response last weekend, being very sub dued buyer interest/inquiry and very small crowds at all Home Opens over the weekend. Also, all the reps in my office reported the same, It will be interesting to see how the interest pans out over the next couple of weekends.

Cheers


Paulie

 

[air_nitta]

I have had an interesting response last weekend, being very sub dued buyer interest/inquiry and very small crowds at all Home Opens over the weekend. Also, all the reps in my office reported the same, It will be interesting to see how the interest pans out over the next couple of weekends.

Cheers


Paulie

Interesting stuff Paulie. I had several opens on the weekend as well, and it is very quiet! All of the reps in our office had quiet home opens as well. The buyers are a bit hesitant at the moment to do anything. A lot of first home buyers are waiting to see what will become of the stamp duty debacle, if they govt does something about this then this boom should get a surge of life i would have thought.

Land however is still mental, we have a lot of land coming up at the moment in areas of high demand such as Wattle Grove and Baldavis, and they will sell within a week.

 

[Pete]

the rich gets richer...

As do all property owners. Seems like all Perth property has had the same sort of growth over the same period. Prices have doubled or tripled or more in the last few years. Everyone with property has had the same gains.

The rich were already rich and are now richer. Plenty of non-rich investors from a few years ago are now newly rich.

regards,

 

[kph]

Ain't that the truth !!

And it didn't take any concerted effort or special strategy.
Whoever was in the market during this current wave have caught a shore ride.

Interesting now will be to see who manages to build on this new wealth, and who will manage to lose it.

Time for a new set of news headlines about crying investors being forced to sell their IPs’ for one reason or another. ( eg... war in Iraq, war in Lebanon, rising petrol prices, etc, ..any excuse will do !)

I get the impression from the previous posts ( Paulie & air nitta ) that the market may have finally turned ?

Or maybe the Eagles were on, and everyone stayed at home.??

So maybe we can now put this ‘never ending’ thread to bed at last ?

Kevin

 

[sparky23]

My agent in Mandurah still hadn't seen any cooling down when I spoke to her last week, likewise 6 brand new villas lasted 2 days on the market. Specifically with the agents commenting on slowdown in activity which suburbs are they noticing this happening in right now?

Sparky

 

[stockt12]

Based on some discussions with a few agents and one in particular today... the properties are still fetching far above expectations.

 

[deanthomas]

According to my agent here in Midland the market's gone quiet too. Spoke to me about it 2 weeks ago and confirmed with me again just yesterday.

Regards Dean