Possibility of a Greek default in next week

[hobo-jo]

except for the collateral damage that is casued. how many people panicked when Keen said there was a collapse coming and went and sold their primary asset?

Probably nobody. Do you know anyone who did?

How many people have been harmed by property spruikers, buying into off the plan with instant negative equity or from suggested "hot spots" where they've had to wait years for growth which exceeds their holding costs... or sold for a loss while waiting.

There's a lot more people doing harm in the property bull camp than there are in the bear camp.

 

[Aaron Sice]

There's a lot more people doing harm in the property bull camp than there are in the bear camp.

getting caught up in the hype is a very bullish trap.

 

[Aaron Sice]

how many people panicked when Keen said there was a collapse coming and went and sold their primary asset?

steven keen?

 

[turk]

how many people panicked when Keen said there was a collapse coming and went and sold their primary asset?

hobo-jo

 

[boomtown]

Could not agree me.....

The way the EU is behaving makes the Latin Americans good!

What is really funny is that more and more Europeans are moving to Asia for careers. I can foresee that in 10 years or less countries like Italy, Portugal, Spain, Greece...will have a standard living much less than countries like Malaysia and Thailand....and possibly Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and the Phillipines.

I think that's a long bow to stretch. Its very easy to make big gains starting from a low base but a hell of a lot harder as you get further up the ladder.

 

[BayView]

How many people have been harmed by property spruikers, buying into off the plan with instant negative equity or from suggested "hot spots" where they've had to wait years for growth which exceeds their holding costs... or sold for a loss while waiting.

I don't remember seeing anyone holding a gun to any of those peoples' heads and saying "Buy!".

While it is sad that some people have lost a lot of their life savings in these ventures, they all had the opportunity to do their own DD and find out for themselves what the correct values were, what the better areas were and so on.

 

[Ausprop]

anyway we need to have something to discuss besides charts of "the australian median house" priced in gold and USD overlaid with egg inflation and the BDI movement

 

[hobo-jo]

I don't remember seeing anyone holding a gun to any of those peoples' heads and saying "Buy!".

Did you see what my post was in response to?

No one is using a gun to force people to sell either.

However the property spruikers are doing a lot more damage than any who are bearish.

In fact it continues to surprise me how little attention is given to the scams and ponzi property businesses that are around. Usually they are only discussed after someone comes here asking about (probably in some cases AFTER they've been burned).

On a precious metals forum I frequent the community actively seeks to share information on the pitfalls and scammers... would be good to see the same happening here in relation to property scams.

 

[boomtown]

Tehanu

No need to bow out. Even if your timing was not quite right it has been one of my favorite threads on this board. People here (should) take what they read with a grain of salt and form their own views. Sometimes I change my mind twice a day and three times on Saturday.

I encourage you to keep contributing.

 

[VYBerlinaV8]

Did you see what my post was in response to?

No one is using a gun to force people to sell either.

However the property spruikers are doing a lot more damage than any who are bearish.

In fact it continues to surprise me how little attention is given to the scams and ponzi property businesses that are around. Usually they are only discussed after someone comes here asking about (probably in some cases AFTER they've been burned).

On a precious metals forum I frequent the community actively seeks to share information on the pitfalls and scammers... would be good to see the same happening here in relation to property scams.

I'd say the banks force people to sell occasionally.

 

[Shadow]

Probably nobody. Do you know anyone who did?

I don't know any personally, but I do know of quite a few people who were posting on GH.PC who sold around that time on the basis of Steve Keen and Foundation's promise of a major crash.

This chart shows exactly when Steve Keen sold his place in Sydney...

Note that Sydney median prices are right back up at all-time-peak levels, according to the Residex index (http://www.residex.com.au/indices).

The minor falls of 2011 have been completely reversed.

 

[hobo-jo]

My base case scenario has never been for an Australian wide crash (although think there is a good chance that Melbourne is part way into a crash).

I recall a couple of people on GH.PC having said they sold (though recall none stating it was Keen specifically that scared them into doing it), but a couple of faceless anonymous users on a dead and burried forum is hardly evidence of anything. For all I know that was just bull trolls stirring the pot with puppet accounts I'm sure you would know nothing of such underhanded tactics Shadow

The minor falls of 2011 have been completely reversed.

Looks like it's been bouncing around the peak for a couple of years, has a long way to travel higher if we're going to see 7 digits (47% higher than today) within 3 years, goodluck with that prediction of yours

I think the Sydney median could push a little higher short term making a new high, but the change to the FHOG October 1st (extended, but for new homes only) may very well have a negative effect on existing stock toward the end of the year and over 2013.

Might take another 6 months for the flow on from this change to impact the market but my expectation is that we see lower lows for the Sydney median in the next year or two (lower than the 2011 trough).

 

[Shadow]

I recall a couple of people on GH.PC having said they sold (though recall none stating it was Keen specifically that scared them into doing it), but a couple of faceless anonymous users on a dead and burried forum is hardly evidence of anything.

Keen was pretty prominent in the media in 2008, he was spruiking his 40% crash every week, and on the evening news etc. I'd say it's bound to have had some effect.

For all I know that was just bull trolls stirring the pot with puppet accounts

I wouldn't know anything of such underhanded tactics.

I'm sure you would know nothing of such underhanded tactics Shadow

You are correct.

Looks like it's been bouncing around the peak for a couple of years, has a long way to travel higher if we're going to see 7 digits (47% higher than today) within 3 years, goodluck with that prediction of yours

An average 9% per annum for this year and the next 3 would be sufficient for my prediction (which doesn't involve 7 digits).

 

[hobo-jo]

An average 9% per annum for this year and the next 3 would be sufficient for my prediction (which doesn't involve 7 digits).

/facepalm

How could I forget? You revised down your prediction from $1.25m to "approaching" $1m... whatever that means

Are you sure you don't want to revise it down to "approaching a level that could be greater than $800k"? At least that way you have a chance to build on the 10% of predictions you get right, rather than this one being added to the 80-90% you get wrong.

 

[MrCrumbpacker]

I don't know any personally, but I do know of quite a few people who were posting on GH.PC who sold around that time on the basis of Steve Keen and Foundation's promise of a major crash.

This chart shows exactly when Steve Keen sold his place in Sydney...

Note that Sydney median prices are right back up at all-time-peak levels, according to the Residex index (http://www.residex.com.au/indices).

The minor falls of 2011 have been completely reversed.

Doesn't look to bad when you transpose it onto the longer dated chart, if that was a stock, I would be happy to hop off just before the top.

Too early to judge on in my view, not an easy market to hop on and off, so best to go early, looks to me like he got out just before things broke below trend, factor in a bit of true inflation over that period, and if he did anything sensible with his money, like gold, then it could have been a wise move.

 

[Graemsay]

What strikes me about the chart is that it's projecting a trend of around 9% growth per annum over the long term, versus income growth that's somewhere around half that. That's optimistic over the long term.

My expectation would be that Sydney prices are somewhat lower than Shadow predicts over the next three or four years. It's probably going to take that sort of time to work through the fallout of the financial crisis, and that will continue to exert a drag on the global economy.

 

[Shadow]

/facepalm

How could I forget? You revised down your prediction from $1.25m to "approaching" $1m... whatever that means

Are you sure you don't want to revise it down to "approaching a level that could be greater than $800k"? At least that way you have a chance to build on the 10% of predictions you get right, rather than this one being added to the 80-90% you get wrong.

It was revised several years ago, and we've discussed that revision several times, so I doubt you forgot!

No, the prediction stands as it has stood for the past few years - Sydney median house price to approach $1M by (an unspecified day in) 2015, as measured by the Residex index.

And I don't mind getting 10-20% of my predictions wrong... nobody is perfect.

 

[hobo-jo]

No worries, well I'll be sure to buy you a beer if you're right!

How about we meet by 4pm on January 1st 2016. And when I say "by 4pm" I mean an unspecified minute inbetween 4.00pm and 4.59pm

10-20% wrong? lol think you have your statistics muddled Shadow.

How about you link to the 8-9 predictions you got right to offset the incorrect prediction of a "Sydney construction boom in 2010/2011"?

 

[Shadow]

No worries, well I'll be sure to buy you a beer if you're right!

How about we meet by 4pm on January 1st 2016. And when I say "by 4pm" I mean an unspecified minute inbetween 4.00pm and 4.59pm

Well, 4pm is a precise time, whereas 2015 lasts for a whole year.

But sure, I'll let you buy me that beer... make it a Guinness.

By the way, will you be forking out $480 for the wonderful Macro Associates Newsletter?

 

[hobo-jo]

Why would I pay $480 when at the moment they are only asking $385? What do you think I am? A property speculator?

I will consider it over the free 21 day trial period. It would be of limited benefit to me personally from an investment point of view, as I can't see myself taking such a balanced approach until much older. At this time I prefer Jim Roger's philosophy:

"The way to get rich is to put your eggs in one basket, but watch that basket very carefully. And make sure you have the right basket."