Greece is suffering far greater sacrifices than Germany ever did after integration, & given that Germany was one of the primary reckless lenders to Ireland & Spain they shouldn't be able to dictate austerity terms to those countries either.
Possibility of a Greek default in next week
- Thread starter Tehanu
- Start date
Looking at the title and the date of the opening post, it's been a long week! 
Looking at the title and the date of the opening post, it's been a long week!
thats what I think everytime I see this post in the "new posts" section... too much speculative doomsday predictions at the moment I think.
Must be the effect of the 2012 Mayan doomsday thing..... its making everyone nervous!
Could not agree me.....
The way the EU is behaving makes the Latin Americans good!
What is really funny is that more and more Europeans are moving to Asia for careers. I can foresee that in 10 years or less countries like Italy, Portugal, Spain, Greece...will have a standard living much less than countries like Malaysia and Thailand....and possibly Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and the Phillipines.
The way the EU is behaving makes the Latin Americans good!
What is really funny is that more and more Europeans are moving to Asia for careers. I can foresee that in 10 years or less countries like Italy, Portugal, Spain, Greece...will have a standard living much less than countries like Malaysia and Thailand....and possibly Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and the Phillipines.
*Cough* well it looks like I was wrong about the imminent Greek default. Up until then my belief was that Germany would be the first country to leave the Eurozone (it is the strong outer regions that can survive on their own that break away first, not the weak ones), but in the month or so leading up to the post, it looked like Germany was getting ready to abandon Greece and that the Greeks were playing a game of chicken. Also it looked like the timing of contracts etc. were reaching a critical point and it looked like the Europeans had prepared their banks for a breakup. So I changed my opinion to the Greek default. I did have a seed of doubt about that because I thought that that wouldn't happen until all the major parties had been thrown out in Germany and there were riots in the street in Berlin. However it looks like both the Germans and Greeks have stepped back from the brink for now. Especially now that Merkel has given in and has agreed to directly bail-out banks. Guess my first instinct was correct - wait for the riots in Berlin.
Actually I am disappointed about this. Not because I put any money on it (remember I was waiting for Germany to leave and I didn't expect that for several years yet) but because the longer this goes on, the more chance that a disorderly break-up will occur leading to immense economic damage, lingering hatred amongst the European nations as they blame each other and also immense damage to internal political institutions as a break-up will involve the people fighting against all their mainstream political parties (none of whom want the reputation of being the one to break-up the eurozone). The longer this goes on for the more chance our children and grandchildren will have to suffer the consequences and I'm not talking about just economic ones.
It would be better for even the Greeks to leave now then wait for a German led disorderly break-up. Conditions are likely to be worse in a couple of years and now at least the IMF and Northern Europe have enough resources and are willing to use them to cushion the break.
Still that doesn't take away from the fact that I was wrong about my prediction. So big fail on my part.
Actually I am disappointed about this. Not because I put any money on it (remember I was waiting for Germany to leave and I didn't expect that for several years yet) but because the longer this goes on, the more chance that a disorderly break-up will occur leading to immense economic damage, lingering hatred amongst the European nations as they blame each other and also immense damage to internal political institutions as a break-up will involve the people fighting against all their mainstream political parties (none of whom want the reputation of being the one to break-up the eurozone). The longer this goes on for the more chance our children and grandchildren will have to suffer the consequences and I'm not talking about just economic ones.
It would be better for even the Greeks to leave now then wait for a German led disorderly break-up. Conditions are likely to be worse in a couple of years and now at least the IMF and Northern Europe have enough resources and are willing to use them to cushion the break.
Still that doesn't take away from the fact that I was wrong about my prediction. So big fail on my part.
Germany benefits the most by being in the Euro, at the expense of others. They would be the LAST country to leave. Germany leaving the Eurozone would be good for the other countries though, short term pain but longer term more competitiveness & control over their economies without the dead weight of German intransigence on their backs.
Agree.
If germany leaves Euro now, their deutsche mark will skyrocket, making all their exports expensive and basically killing their export driven economy.
Germany wants to stay in Euro and keep euro currency down.
They are waging a currency war VS USA and China. At the expense of everyone in eurozone.
I am not sure if we will ever see euro bond. The Germans wants the benefit of the weak currency but not the debt burden of it.
At this point it seems like China will be affected heavily soon.
And if China is affected, Australia is
Not much of a choice here. China is our biggest customer.
nothing wrong with being wrong.
you had a measured reason for your predictions and for the most part, the problems you highlighted still exist, they are just being continually band-aided over.
except for the collateral damage that is casued. how many people panicked when Keen said there was a collapse coming and went and sold their primary asset?
I agree Joe. While they are bundled with the PIIGS Germany's currency is artificially low so their exports are strong. If they took the populist move and separated, their currency would surge and their industry would find life more difficult.
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