Possibility of a Greek default in next week

I realise the significance the Greeks once great contributions to modern western countries, but that was thousands of years ago. The modern Greek simply lives off the back of that once great country. You hear it from 3rd generation Greek Australians as something to be proud of. I just don't get...it's a basket case mate. 150 years ago my pommy ancestors arrived here but I don't go round hanging my hat on the magna carta, the Westminster system, presumption of innocence, the rule of the British empire etcI just love to beat them at cricket

What you personally do is not the point. It's what your country does. And it does exactly that.
 
No, it was in the time of Pericles, around 2500 years ago actually. But the cultural significance of democracy is not something I would ever possibly expect you of all people to fathom: It's not something you can attach a dollar sign to.

Considering I read the Illiad in Ancient Greek and the Aeneid in Latin, you'd really have to wonder how much appreciation I have of anything with cultural significance.

Anyway, what's the relevance? Modern Greece is not half as transparent/fair as say United States if you were to talk about harbingers of democracy.

As another poster said, if all the Greeks can do is live in the past, then a lot of ancient civlisations should be doing that. Chinese for a start could be talking about their great dynasties that spanned thousands of years. But they move with time (after several lost decades) and again make a meaningful contribution to the world.

The day the Greeks stop trying to not pay the Germans and Americans back, the day I'll stop complaining.

PS: having great ancestors doesn't mean different rules apply to you - fundamental idea of democracy?
 
I recently read that the Greeks are withdrawing their money from the banks, with 700 million euros taken out in one day alone

Spain is also feeling the effect with 1 billion euros being withdrawn from Bankia, the troubled Spanish bank

There's a lot of cracks appearing, so more jitters for our market also

egon von gryez was saying on KWN that someone went to take delivery of their physical, allocated gold in switzerland and the bank had lonaed it out! this is ALLOCATED gold! they had to source gold and refund it!

ive heard through a few different sources that theres a few bank runs happening in greece. i expect another yugoslavia.
 
The day the Greeks stop trying to not pay the Germans and Americans back, the day I'll stop complaining.

Why should they repay a bunch of scammers who should be put in jail for ponzi schemes, fraudulent AAA ratings etc etc?
Why should anybody repay them?

The Americans have had their hands all over Greek, Italian and Spanish politics since WWII sabotaging many times local democracy and sovereignty for their own political purposes and at the detriment and increased criminality and corruption in those countries.
Poverty and corruption aided US objectives. A prosperous PIIGS was not good for the US.
 
Spain pumped 26 billion into Bankia today effectively nationalizing it. Plenty more to come.
Hopefully not, still a lot less than the near trillion spent to bail out UK banks.

Why should they repay a bunch of scammers who should be put in jail for ponzi schemes, fraudulent AAA ratings etc etc?
Why should anybody repay them?
True, also poorly regulated and irresponsible German banks shoulder a lot of the blame for the current crisis.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-23/merkel-should-know-her-country-has-been-bailed-out-too.html
 
The weekend AFR refers to a triple threat (my words) to the Australian economy from the possible implosion of the Eurozone, contraction in the US from expiry of the Bush era tax cuts and fiscal responsibility being imposed in the US and a slow down in China as they reduce expenditure on capital works.

That's without mentioning the fiscal consolidation at home under the Queensland Campbell government and the inevitable belt tightening at the federal level when Tony Abbott eventually gets in. As an example school teachers here in Queensland have been told they must not use colour photocopiers but must photocopy in black and white. A small change but a deeply symbolic one. We can expect more when Tony takes the hot seat and sets about creating a real surplus rather than Wayne Swans accounting surplus.

Even blind Freddy can see that if the State government, Commonwealth government, European Union, US government and Chinese government all contract spending at the same time, Freddy is going to get squeezed.

Just last week the new Campbell government killed a deal I was working on. The deal cannot survive without government funding. That's fiscal contraction live in action.
 
Just last week the new Campbell government killed a deal I was working on. The deal cannot survive without government funding. That's fiscal contraction live in action.

The high rise building that was going to cost QLD taxpayers approx 80 mil after completion due to overpriced sale estimates vs cancelling project now and only costing 11 mil?

I read that one over the weekend :)
 
The high rise building that was going to cost QLD taxpayers approx 80 mil after completion due to overpriced sale estimates vs cancelling project now and only costing 11 mil?

I read that one over the weekend :)

Good to see Campbell Newman cutting the spivs off at the knees.
 
He's planning a new govt office block. He has a ton of good will at the moment but needs to play this carefully if he is not going to look like he's building a palace while front line services get smashed.
Best be careful if he is. The electorate still remembers Joh's extravagance in George St. The average Joe thinks that palace should still be pretty good.
 
Yes and his references to Joh in his inauguration speech were disturbing. But I'm personally prepared to give him a run even if his wife scares the crap out of me.
 
The point is that the consensus is the Euro is the source of Greece's problems and that as soon as Greece gets out of the Euro it will be on its way to recovery. Single problem, single solution.

In fact - quite a few economists are trying to cart around the default or devaluation option for other countries too. Just default or devalue. Easy! The recent upgrade of Iceland seems to support that.

However Greece's history shows that it is no-where near as simple as that. Which is why I doubt that a default will actually solve Greece's problems and may even make it worse. There are fundamental problems with Greece that date back centuries. I agree a default is necessary (the banks were stupid enough to lend to Greece...), but default without fundamental reforms will lead to disaster, for Greece that is, and any other country who thinks that they can just take the easy way out.

I think the chief lesson that comes the Greek default (whenever it may come) is that default/devaluation is not necessarily the easy way out. It is only default with the willingness to make wholesale fundamental reforms that works.

Actually I think Greece's default might be better for Europe than it is for Greece. The same fundamental problems with Greece mean that throwing more money at it in "bail-outs" (I use the term loosely since a lot of that money goes straight to loan payments) would never have solved the Greek problem either.

In the end, it is not up to foreigners to either dictate to Greece or to save it (depending on your political persuasion). Without the internal will to reform, neither bail-out or default will not solve Greece's problems. But default may help the rest of Europe.

Agreed Greece has had a dysfunctional political system (to put it mildly) since WW II but at least since the '60's they've had a living standard at the lower end of the developed world standard. They are probably going to fall out of that category and end up with living standards closer to some of the more backward areas of Eastern Europe.
 
I saw a TV programme a couple of weeks ago that featured Michael Portillo, a former big beast in the Conservative party, speaking to Greeks about the Euro.

Like many on the right wing of the British political system, Portillo is highly critical of both the EU and the single currency. So his starting point was that Greece needed to get out of the Euro, and return to using the Drachma. The theory being that a devaluation would make the country competitive again.

However, most, if not all of the Greeks he spoke to wanted to retain the Euro. The reason that came up repeatedly was that it imposed a level of discipline on the government, and prevented the cycle of devaluations that had hitherto characterised the country's recent economic history. In fact, 70% to 80% support remaining in the single currency.

The trouble is that the Greeks don't like the terms and conditions of the bailout. The message that the political parties are peddling is that they can stay in the Euro but not continue with the austerity package by somehow renegotiating the terms of the deal. So having their cake and eating it.

What gives the Greeks some leverage is that a default could cost the Germans around €1 trillion, against a GDP of €2.6 trillion. In fact, Satyajit Das is very gloomy about the Eurozone's prospects because of this. (If you haven't, listen to this recording from the Sydney Book Festival. It's worth listening to, even though it sounds like we're all doomed, but Oz seems better positioned.)

I'm not sure what the solution is. I suspect that it probably needs politicians to admit to what state we're in, and come up with honest solutions. These probably involve austerity, paying more tax for fewer services, and cracking down on both tax evasion and avoidance. But I'm coming from a position where I believe a lot of the sense of prosperity over the last decade or so has been illusory, created by borrowing, and now we're into a cycle of deleveraging.

But do bear in mind that despite all the talk of Eurogeddon, the debt and deficit levels there are lower over the single currency area than in the UK, Japan or the US. None of those countries seem to be in imminent risk of a similar crisis, so the causes are probably down to sclerotic leadership as much as anything else.
 
I saw a TV programme a couple of weeks ago that featured Michael Portillo, a former big beast in the Conservative party, speaking to Greeks about the Euro.

Like many on the right wing of the British political system, Portillo is highly critical of both the EU and the single currency. So his starting point was that Greece needed to get out of the Euro, and return to using the Drachma. The theory being that a devaluation would make the country competitive again.

However, most, if not all of the Greeks he spoke to wanted to retain the Euro. The reason that came up repeatedly was that it imposed a level of discipline on the government, and prevented the cycle of devaluations that had hitherto characterised the country's recent economic history. In fact, 70% to 80% support remaining in the single currency...................

Thanks for the heads-up. Had a look at the program on YouTube, and the one thing that amazed me, that was mentioned by Professor Gunther Schnabl interviewed, but that for close to 15 years, Germany has had no material increases in real wages/living standards. Primarily as a result of the East German integration, and they have already sacrificed to get their house in order and expect the same from the likes of Greece et al.
 
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