Prediction on where next boom is?
- Thread starter DAAJ
- Start date
I think that Pitt St's point is that over the past 20 years or more, property booms in Australia have progressed from:
1. Sydney
2. Melbourne
3. Brisbane
4. Other capitals
So, unless you perceive a fundamental change in the Australian economy, you'd expect that property booms will follow the some pattern over the next few years.
Cheers, Medine
1. Sydney
2. Melbourne
3. Brisbane
4. Other capitals
So, unless you perceive a fundamental change in the Australian economy, you'd expect that property booms will follow the some pattern over the next few years.
Cheers, Medine
Medine said:
It doesnt really look like that to me. I cant see any clear pattern - Melbourne started the first boom in 87 and it looks like Brisbane started the last boom we got (this is going by the first graph). Doesnt make sense compared to what I have heard, but its not the first time common knowledge is wrong.
Does anyone think that Sydney has really pulled away from the other cities during this last boom? I can see from historical data that Sydney has always been 40-50% more expensive than Melbourne, but $120k v $70k is very different from $500k v $300k. Melbourne salaries aren't much lower than Sydney, which would imply Sydney is still very expensive.
Do people believe that there will be another boom on the east coast without a bust first?
Alex
Do people believe that there will be another boom on the east coast without a bust first?
Alex
Smile said:
It also cost you nothing.
But aren't we fussy.
The ABS still produces House Price Index Data and it is now free to the public, but they changed their methodology last year which means that the time series is broken.
So unless you either purchase or beg/borrow/steal quarterly median price data for the 8 capitals going back 20 years, then that "out of date" data is about as about good as you will get.
Mark
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Do you have to let everyone in on it Rix? Shhhh.Rixter said:
guessing
Syndey seems too high a price to start the market
Brissy's wages aren't as high as Melb. or Syd.
so I'm guessing Melbourne will be first again, not because I live here,
but it's possibly had the smaller rise of the various capitals, and an earlier easing.
as to when,
definetly not inside two years,
probably closer to mid 2009-2010
but I'm just guessin,
like everyone else.......
cheers
Timm
Syndey seems too high a price to start the market
Brissy's wages aren't as high as Melb. or Syd.
so I'm guessing Melbourne will be first again, not because I live here,
but it's possibly had the smaller rise of the various capitals, and an earlier easing.
as to when,
definetly not inside two years,
probably closer to mid 2009-2010
but I'm just guessin,
like everyone else.......
cheers
Timm
Boom times for resource projects.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/Busin...-projects-ABARE/2006/05/18/1147545433600.html
May 7, 2006 by David Koch in The Sydney Morning Herald : It may be time to jump into the property market, but look before you leap WHENEVER interest rates rise, much of the media coverage focuses on the rise in home loan repayments and the potential hit on property values. And that's fair enough. But a rise can also present opportunities to find property bargains. Particularly for first home buyers with strong, steady incomes, this could be a time to look seriously at the property market...
http://www.theage.com.au/news/Busin...-projects-ABARE/2006/05/18/1147545433600.html
May 7, 2006 by David Koch in The Sydney Morning Herald : It may be time to jump into the property market, but look before you leap WHENEVER interest rates rise, much of the media coverage focuses on the rise in home loan repayments and the potential hit on property values. And that's fair enough. But a rise can also present opportunities to find property bargains. Particularly for first home buyers with strong, steady incomes, this could be a time to look seriously at the property market...
Let's forget where the next "boom" is because the boom is the last stage of the property cycle and in fact the shortest stage.
It's really hard to make money during a boom - its a seller's market
Maybe a question we could ask is - where is the next proeprty cycle starting? And the answer is this time the Melbourne cycle has already commenced. Prices have moved up more than 10% in some middle and upper end suburbs driven by owner occupiers.
Ihave been in Brisbane the last 5 days and there is evidnce of the cycle commencing to move on here - (not in inner city apartments.) Sydney has not moved yet.
Further details at Property Update
It's really hard to make money during a boom - its a seller's market
Maybe a question we could ask is - where is the next proeprty cycle starting? And the answer is this time the Melbourne cycle has already commenced. Prices have moved up more than 10% in some middle and upper end suburbs driven by owner occupiers.
Ihave been in Brisbane the last 5 days and there is evidnce of the cycle commencing to move on here - (not in inner city apartments.) Sydney has not moved yet.
Further details at Property Update
Hi Gang,
Here is a link to a research report (April 2006) by Herron Todd White where they give their view on where the cycle is at in each Capital. Not so sure I agree with their assessment but then they are looking at each capital as a whole. For example they suggest that Canberra is at its peak and Melbourne is declining?????
http://www.htw.com.au/pages/info_centre/review/Cairns - National Market Report Apr 06.pdf
Cheers - Gordon
Here is a link to a research report (April 2006) by Herron Todd White where they give their view on where the cycle is at in each Capital. Not so sure I agree with their assessment but then they are looking at each capital as a whole. For example they suggest that Canberra is at its peak and Melbourne is declining?????
http://www.htw.com.au/pages/info_centre/review/Cairns - National Market Report Apr 06.pdf
Cheers - Gordon
I think you look at the market when you can afford to buy....that should be your over-ridding factor....also, interest rate moves on such a small scale (ie 0.25%) probably don't have as much influence on property prices as some people believe.DAAJ said:
So he thinks prices will go down because interest rates cause less demand? Maybe at the higher end of the market, but not so much at the entry level...and anyway, it's false economy - you might pick that house up for a better price than two weeks ago, but now you're paying a higher rate on the loan.DAAJ said:
Overall, there's merit in what Koshy's saying but he's not telling people the whole story.....
George
If I were to have a stab at where the next housing boom is going to be I would look at the major cities that have benfited from the recent boom. Then I would look at the average prices between these major cities and say 1 or 2 hours in each direction.
Look at the areas aprox 100 km in each direction of these cities that have large cities but not huge to the exstent of capital cities. If there is a large variance between average prices in these 2 areas as a result of the property boom, my bet is that these will have to play catch up. Examples of such places include Newcastle in NSW. . .
Look at the areas aprox 100 km in each direction of these cities that have large cities but not huge to the exstent of capital cities. If there is a large variance between average prices in these 2 areas as a result of the property boom, my bet is that these will have to play catch up. Examples of such places include Newcastle in NSW. . .
@Austini - being a Perthite I gotta say that the only thing that report got right were the points that were obvious to everyone in Oz. The rest I think was way off the mark.
For example:
Properties being sold in Perth for above asking price = occasionally. Um - try about 60%+ of sales.....especially if they are under 350k
<KS>
For example:
Properties being sold in Perth for above asking price = occasionally. Um - try about 60%+ of sales.....especially if they are under 350k
<KS>
