Well, its that time again. Between the boozy xmas parties, id like to know any predictions nationwide for property prices in 2012.
Ill start:
Q1 2012: Slow uptick in prices [avg in capital cities 1-2%]. The recent cut in rates will start to take effect. The lower dollar will also encourage overseas migration and thus increase demand. Low dollar also increases overseas investment.
Uncertainty around europe will subside as I reckon they will come to a patchwork deal of sorts.
Q2: Slow uptick [1-2%]. Local and international economies will stabilise. Some commentators will start to talk of higher rates towards the end of the year.
Q3: Flat. The talk of RBA increasing rates will soften any increases. Dollar will go to 105+ levels, thus deterring migration and general foreign investment.
Inflation will increase as proceeds from mining boom filter thru the economy.
Q4: Flat-1-2% decline.
With no big threats to the global nor domestic economy and rising inflation driven by boom in commodity exports to china and india, the RBA will increase rates by 25 basis points, which will be passed by the banks in less than 2 sec flat!
Unknowns:
1. Europe- Whilst possible they may really screw up and drag us all down [ eurozone is the largest economy in the world] - of course it will affect us, it is probably unlikely. The challenge they have is the politics and the competing interests amongst countries but i reckon they will come to a half-a$$ed agreement that will get us through and prevent things from getting much worse.
2. Blimin ANZ has set a dangerous precedent with its monthly review of rates irrespective of RBA. The other banks will likely follow suit with monthly reviews. When was the last time any bank voluntarilly reduced rates? Yep, this is a sly ploy by ANZ to raise rates whichever month they please. I dont think they will do it often, but one or twice by small amounts next year, i reckon. A good way for ANZ to raise rates by say 5 basis points any given month without too much political backlash. If other banks copy the move, it will not have much customer backlash either.
Ill start:
Q1 2012: Slow uptick in prices [avg in capital cities 1-2%]. The recent cut in rates will start to take effect. The lower dollar will also encourage overseas migration and thus increase demand. Low dollar also increases overseas investment.
Uncertainty around europe will subside as I reckon they will come to a patchwork deal of sorts.
Q2: Slow uptick [1-2%]. Local and international economies will stabilise. Some commentators will start to talk of higher rates towards the end of the year.
Q3: Flat. The talk of RBA increasing rates will soften any increases. Dollar will go to 105+ levels, thus deterring migration and general foreign investment.
Inflation will increase as proceeds from mining boom filter thru the economy.
Q4: Flat-1-2% decline.
With no big threats to the global nor domestic economy and rising inflation driven by boom in commodity exports to china and india, the RBA will increase rates by 25 basis points, which will be passed by the banks in less than 2 sec flat!
Unknowns:
1. Europe- Whilst possible they may really screw up and drag us all down [ eurozone is the largest economy in the world] - of course it will affect us, it is probably unlikely. The challenge they have is the politics and the competing interests amongst countries but i reckon they will come to a half-a$$ed agreement that will get us through and prevent things from getting much worse.
2. Blimin ANZ has set a dangerous precedent with its monthly review of rates irrespective of RBA. The other banks will likely follow suit with monthly reviews. When was the last time any bank voluntarilly reduced rates? Yep, this is a sly ploy by ANZ to raise rates whichever month they please. I dont think they will do it often, but one or twice by small amounts next year, i reckon. A good way for ANZ to raise rates by say 5 basis points any given month without too much political backlash. If other banks copy the move, it will not have much customer backlash either.
