Quiz time

W

WebBoard

Guest
From: Sergey Golovin


Good day folks.

As you can see this is only half of the story. As soon as any one can come up with explanation what will happen with that picture in the opposite economic cycle, I’ll post name of the book, author and store where it can be purchased. I'll give you hint - they are talking about share market...

Good luck.

Serge.



Basic checks for inflationary pressure –

Generally, rising inflation means rising employment, rising commodity prices, overheated consumption, and rising asset prices. Rising wages and commodity prices – and in particular rising oil prices – increase company costs. These increases inevitably lead to lower profits or higher prices. Consumers bid up the price of assets (usually using borrowed money) in the belief that rising inflation will raise the price of these assets even further.
Egged on by over-enthusiastic lending institutions, this leads to financial over-commitment, both by consumers and corporations. As consequence, if our exports become too expensive to be competitive, or too many imports are consumed, a balance of payments problem occurs – and individuals and the nation spiral into debt. This scenario, or the prospect of it, inevitably means that the central banks will increase interest rates to dampen down the economy. Unfortunately, this can then turn into the recession.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Reply: 1
From: Michael Croft


Sounds a bit like Stuart Moore to me. He wrote quite well on the economic clock and it's implications for investors/investment cycles. He also had a half decent budgeting system from memory. Can't remember the name of the book as I lent it to some one a while back and they haven't returned it - you know who you are ;^)

Michael Croft
"The best parachute folders are those who jump themselves."
 
Last edited by a moderator:
W

WebBoard

Guest
Reply: 1.1
From: Sergey Golovin


No it is not that book.

Robyn Murtagh "Women and shares in Australia" How to start buying shares and secure your financial future, The Five Mile Press, Big W stores nation wide, $19.48.

What about the economic cycle Michael? Or the symptoms shell we say?

Serge.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
W

WebBoard

Guest
Reply: 1.1.1
From: Sergey Golovin


What’s wrong with you people, don’t you want to think?
Or are doing Xmas shopping or something?

OK, here we go –

Rising Inflation – down and steady
Rising Employment – down
Rising Commodity price – (?)
Overheated consumption – does not look like it does it.
Rising asset price – stabilised and start heading down.
Rising wages – must be kidding.
Rising oil prices – down and steady
Increase company cost – (?)
Lower profits and higher prices – profits steady and prices steady
Borrowed money – down
Over-enthusiastic lending institutions – well balanced
Financial over-commitment, both by consumers and corporations – yes up
Exports too expensive – cheap
Too many imports are consumed – slightly down
Ballance of payments – (?)
Individuals and the nation spiral into debt – yes
Central banks will increase interest rates to dampen down the economy – yes they did and it flipped to the other side already. Now they low the interest rate not dampen the economy (was dampened too much) but to “rejuvenate” it or at least try to.

Must be beginning of recession, too easy.

Serge.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Reply: 1.1.1.1
From: Michael Croft


Australia is not an island, so contrary to popular belief we are not immune from a global down turn. It's really too tough to call Sergey and whoever does so would only be guessing.

Has the US Fed done enough to stimulate their economy?

Will Japan pull out of recession within the next 5 years?

What about China, can you believe their figures?

What about a united Europe?

If the US recovers (and it's looking like they might by mid 2002) and if ..............

As the French say, 'with ifs you can put Paris in a bottle.'

Michael Croft
"The best parachute folders are those who jump themselves."
 
Last edited by a moderator:
W

WebBoard

Guest
Reply: 1.1.1.1.1
From: Sergey Golovin


Thanks Michael,

It is true we are part of global community, as well as we do have our own underlaying factors.

Serge.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
W

WebBoard

Guest
Reply: 1.1.1.1.2
From: Ctrader .


Given the track record of Economist's predictions, you might find yourself better off if you take a reactive approach rather than a predictive approach to the market. Nobody knows what's coming next but with some fore-thought and planning for different scenarios you can react accordingly and possibly even take advantage of an opportunity instead of getting caught in a poor situation because the predictions you relied upon didn't work out.

Ctrader


Personally, I think everybody who predicts the future with a straight face should be required (by federal law) to change out of the business suit, wrap him/herself in a gypsy shawl, wear one of those pointed wizard's hats with a picture of a crescent moon on it, and make conjuring sounds over a crystal ball. That way, everybody would know exactly what's going on and how much credibility to give the answer. -- Robert N. Veres
 
Last edited by a moderator:
W

WebBoard

Guest
Reply: 1.1.1.1.2.1
From: Sergey Golovin


That's what I need - hat!
I'll put it on the Xmas list.
Thanks Ctrader.
New hat new brain. Ooohh, I love that! I need one.
Ah damn - crystal ball...
Oh well, ad to the list. I do have that feeling I'm going to be like Harry Potter soon. Magic! ...Strike me lightning...Broom...Oh well, I'll get one for New Years Eve. Yes!!

But on the more serious note – I‘m still waiting for Mr. McFarlane to send me latest report from reserve bank forecast but they did not yet, damn. I’ll call’m. I’ll get back to you.

Serge.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Reply: 1.1.1.1.3
From: Michael G


Hehe,

If we're a global economy can as ask for Japanese interest rates for our home loans :p

Michael G
 
Last edited by a moderator:
W

WebBoard

Guest
Reply: 1.1.1.1.3.1
From: Sergey Golovin


Michael,

It will happen.
It wont happen overnight but it will happen.

Serge.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Top