See Change and Richard Feynman . let's hype the sydney market thread .

[Shadow]

He's too busy running his own site and forum designed to hype the property market, a single thread is not thinking big enough...

If you're talking about Australian Property Forum, that's not my site. I'm just a member there. It's run by a guy called Alex Barton. You post there as well, as 'tech_support' don't you?

I just noticed this thread today, as I rarely look outside the Property Market Economics subforum of Somersoft. I posted a poll on that subforum a few days ago asking whether the Sydney median house price will hit $1 million next year.

My opinion is that it will certainly approach very close to $1 million by the end of 2015.

Here's the poll/thread... Poll: Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?

 

[hobo-jo]

Yeah sure Shadow I'm sure "Alex Barton" runs APF, good one

 

[see_change]

Latest article from domain

5000 enquiries for new city apartment block


While the headline was about a city block , the bit that caught my eye was this bit

Colliers International plans to launch more than 1200 apartments across four major developments before the end of the year, the first one in Waitara

There are about 100 apartments on offer as part of the VIP release of Park Rise. But the managing director for residential at Colliers, Peter Chittenden, said a sell-out was likely given that more than 100 people had already registered and paid a $5000 deposit.


100 people paying 5000'to register for apartments in Waitara ....

They were struggling to sell these not so long ago ..

WTF

Cliff

 

[redwing]

How heavily invested are you in Sydney Shadow?

Have you invested elsewhere?

 

[Deltaberry]

Not a big believer in selling. If, in what you consider a major fall, it'll only pull back 10-15%, you'll end up not much better.

Pay taxes (call it 15%) plus stamp duty to get back in (5%), properties need to fall by more than 20% for you to trade successfully.

Of course the situation changes if you never plan to invest in Sydney real estate ever again.

That's why, property only ever goes up and you win when you buy.

 

[LoneWolf]

That's why, property only ever goes up and you win when you buy.

DB, so you would never consider to sell, anything?

 

[Deltaberry]

Hmm, I'd sell for an over-the-market price, and an opportunity to redeploy the capital into a very good buy.

Otherwise, what's the point? Throwing some hypotheticals out there again, I bought a place for let's say $3.5m last year. It's probably $5m now.

If I sell, I incur the following costs:
- $300k tax (~22% tax rate after CGT discount)
- $100k agent fees
- So I'm down to $4.6m

If I got back into the market, I can only buy a $4.4m asset (since I have to pay $200k stamp duty). So I've gone from owning a $5m asset to a $4.4m asset. Another way to think about it is, the market would have to fall 12% between me selling and buying again, and I'd only come out square from not having sold anything in the first place.

But if I got an over the market price (let's say $6m) and I can use the cash to buy an asset worth $5m for $4m, then I'd do it. But now I'm a property trader, a true capitalist. And if I do that globally, they'll call me a globaisation capitalist.

 

[Aaron_C]

You still got a lot of time DB you are only 26

 

[Deltaberry]

You still got a lot of time DB you are only 26

I aspire to be a 26 year old globalisation capitalist.

 

[LoneWolf]

Ok, so, based on your model, it's always better to hold onto everything.

But, what if you need more funds to acquire more assets?
What would you do then? Given you have no other funds available to you

Hmm, I'd sell for an over-the-market price, and an opportunity to redeploy the capital into a very good buy.

Otherwise, what's the point? Throwing some hypotheticals out there again, I bought a place for let's say $3.5m last year. It's probably $5m now.

If I sell, I incur the following costs:
- $300k tax (~22% tax rate after CGT discount)
- $100k agent fees
- So I'm down to $4.6m

If I got back into the market, I can only buy a $4.4m asset (since I have to pay $200k stamp duty). So I've gone from owning a $5m asset to a $4.4m asset. Another way to think about it is, the market would have to fall 12% between me selling and buying again, and I'd only come out square from not having sold anything in the first place.

But if I got an over the market price (let's say $6m) and I can use the cash to buy an asset worth $5m for $4m, then I'd do it. But now I'm a property trader, a true capitalist. And if I do that globally, they'll call me a globaisation capitalist.

 

[Aaron_C]

But, what if you need more funds to acquire more assets?
What would you do then? Given you have no other funds available to you

Cash out on equity.

 

[Deltaberry]

Ok, so, based on your model, it's always better to hold onto everything.

But, what if you need more funds to acquire more assets?
What would you do then? Given you have no other funds available to you

We've sold properties to get into better ones. Why? Because we were able to sell for an above the market price, and bought something else for a below the market price.

Or you can refinance.

 

[Shadow]

How heavily invested are you in Sydney Shadow?

Have you invested elsewhere?

I have a PPOR and 3 IPs on the Northern Beaches, all purchased between 2005 and 2009. No other investments.

 

[redwing]

I have a PPOR and 3 IPs on the Northern Beaches, all purchased between 2005 and 2009. No other investments.

No wonder you're pleased with the recent run up in Sydneys prices

 

[see_change]

Auction preview for sept 13 th


Auction numbers in Sydney have increased steadily over recent weekends as the spring market energy rises. This weekend 564 auctions are scheduled which is well up on last weekend?s 522 but below the 633 auctions conducted over the same weekend last year.

The city and east will host the most number of auctions with 85 followed by the upper north shore with 83, the inner west with 82, the south with 77, the lower north shore with 61, the west with 45, the northern beaches with 37 and Canterbury Bankstown with 31 auctions scheduled.

The most popular suburbs for auctions this weekend in Sydney are Mosman on the lower north shore and Turramurra on the upper north shore each with 9 auctions scheduled. Surry Hills in the city and east, Blacktown in the west, Darlinghurst in the city and east, Ryde on the upper north shore and Paddington in the city and east each have 7 auctions listed this weekend.

Cliff

 

[Richard Feynman]

Auction numbers in Sydney have increased steadily over recent weekends as the spring market energy rises. This weekend 564 auctions are scheduled which is well up on last weekend?s 522 but below the 633 auctions conducted over the same weekend last year.

The city and east will host the most number of auctions with 85 followed by the upper north shore with 83, the inner west with 82, the south with 77, the lower north shore with 61, the west with 45, the northern beaches with 37 and Canterbury Bankstown with 31 auctions scheduled.

The most popular suburbs for auctions this weekend in Sydney are Mosman on the lower north shore and Turramurra on the upper north shore each with 9 auctions scheduled. Surry Hills in the city and east, Blacktown in the west, Darlinghurst in the city and east, Ryde on the upper north shore and Paddington in the city and east each have 7 auctions listed this weekend.

Cliff

I'm calling 83% again this week.

 

[see_change]

Median price 997,500

Spot on RF .

83 %

Check out the median ....

$997,500.00

Looking good

Cliff

 

[Ace in the Hole]

Since when did suburbs like Blue Haven, Bateau Bay and Blackheath become part of Sydney?
These brought the average down...
Could have exceeded the mil without these added in.

 

[Newbieatlife]

Spot on RF .

83 %

Check out the median ....

$997,500.00

Looking good

Cliff

Insane....

I have a $300k deposit for a PPOR in Sydney....initially looking for something within 20km of Sydney CBD with decent land component...am now looking at 30km radius....was comfortable going up to $900k~....but even the thought of a $600k+ mortgage with no cashflow scares the hell out of me! Even at 6.5% average rates that would = more than half my above average net PAYG income!

I have 9 properties in Sydney and Bris and have a job around $100k pa...

How is everyone else affording these homes???!

...definitely not the average Australian....

 

[see_change]

Insane....

I have a $300k deposit for a PPOR in Sydney....initially looking for something within 20km of Sydney CBD with decent land component...am now looking at 30km radius....was comfortable going up to $900k~....but even the thought of a $600k+ mortgage with no cashflow scares the hell out of me! Even at 6.5% average rates that would = more than half my above average net PAYG income!

I have 9 properties in Sydney and Bris and have a job around $100k pa...

How is everyone else affording these homes???!

...definitely not the average Australian....

Depending on how long you've had your IP's you might have a fair bit of equity .....

Last cycle one member sold several investment properties and apparently paid cash for a PPOR on the northern .

beaches .

BTW , I've heard the " sydney prices are unaffordable " every time there's a boom .

Some people will pay too much and get into strife when the next down turn occures , but given we're only just getting out of the last one , I think that will be a while.

Cliff