Sorry about the typo see_change.
See Change and Richard Feynman . let's hype the sydney market thread .
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Sorry about the typo see_change.
No probs . You can go back and edit if you want too , but I agree with your point . The aim wasn't to debate why things have gone up so much , whether it's sustainable , or who can afford it and whether they're being it idiotic or not but just to observe that it has gone up.
Cliff
Probably right.
But; the article casts aspersions about how it did - which would be a tiny % of the property market - if at all.
Show me an ortho, or radiologist, etc - driving a 2001 Conformadore, living in Blacktown, kids at Blacktown Primary/Secondary, hasn't been to at least one O/S destination in the last 5 years.
I used to work in an ICU, Cliff. I know tons of those blokes and other similar income level folks.
They live large, and I bloodywell would too if I was on their coin.
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Probably right.
But; the article casts aspersions about how it did - which would be a tiny % of the property market - if at all.
Show me an ortho, or radiologist, etc - driving a 2001 Conformadore, living in Blacktown, kids at Blacktown Primary/Secondary, hasn't been to at least one O/S destination in the last 5 years.
I used to work in an ICU, Cliff. I know tons of those blokes and other similar income level folks.
They live large, and I bloodywell would too if I was on their coin.
They don't slum it , They live well , they have the house opposite Knox with the tennis court that doesn't get played on , but as a percentage of income that's lower than what my PPOR is worth compared with my income , but .... they also invest . The one I talk to about investing , doesn't buy houses though , he buys hotels ....bit like monopoly ...
Cliff
I reckon I'd be buying hotels (and apartment buildings etc) too if I was on $2mill a year.
A FRENZY of buying activity over the weekend .....
I don't need to hype sydney when The Tele produces opening paragraphs like this
A FRENZY of buying activity over the weekend saw property prices grow across Australian capital cities over the weekend, squashing rumors house prices will soon crash.
All five major capitals recorded growth in the median home price as buyers emerged from winter hibernation ready to move quickly on home sales.
Perth and Melbourne led the market with median home price growth of 0.8 per cent, but Sydney was close behind recording growth of 0.7 per cent.
This means that Sydney?s median home price has grown 9.4 per cent in the year to date and is 14.2 per cent higher than what it was in September 2013.
Brisbane and Adelaide both recorded growth of 0.2 per cent last week.
While price increases in Melbourne and Perth were largely a result of a fall in stock (real estate agents usually advise vendors against auctions over the AFL Grand Final weekend) in Sydney price growth came off the back of a spike in auction volumes.
Sydney hosted 620 auctions over the weekend, up on the 558 over the same weekend last year and almost double the 390 recorded over the corresponding time in 2012.
Despite the larger supply of homes going to auction, Sydney?s auction clearance rate was 78.5 per cent for the week, inching upward on the 78 per cent seen the week prior.
Cliff
I don't need to hype sydney when The Tele produces opening paragraphs like this
A FRENZY of buying activity over the weekend saw property prices grow across Australian capital cities over the weekend, squashing rumors house prices will soon crash.
All five major capitals recorded growth in the median home price as buyers emerged from winter hibernation ready to move quickly on home sales.
Perth and Melbourne led the market with median home price growth of 0.8 per cent, but Sydney was close behind recording growth of 0.7 per cent.
This means that Sydney?s median home price has grown 9.4 per cent in the year to date and is 14.2 per cent higher than what it was in September 2013.
Brisbane and Adelaide both recorded growth of 0.2 per cent last week.
While price increases in Melbourne and Perth were largely a result of a fall in stock (real estate agents usually advise vendors against auctions over the AFL Grand Final weekend) in Sydney price growth came off the back of a spike in auction volumes.
Sydney hosted 620 auctions over the weekend, up on the 558 over the same weekend last year and almost double the 390 recorded over the corresponding time in 2012.
Despite the larger supply of homes going to auction, Sydney?s auction clearance rate was 78.5 per cent for the week, inching upward on the 78 per cent seen the week prior.
Cliff
Lol yep sure, the tele, the bastion of journalistic integrity.
Bayview , John Edwards addressed the issue of who is buying in Sydney in a recent Residex Blog as well as touching the bubble issue
Sydney is now more unaffordable than ever in recorded history; despite this, it is still showing strong growth, albeit at a lower rate;
Fortunately, growth in Sydney is slowing ? but not as quickly as expected. Based on median household income, the affordability measure is now at historic highs. It takes about 54 per cent of after tax income to make loan repayments on the median value home of $852,500; it takes close to 8 times the annual median income to buy the median Sydney home. These ratios are extraordinarily high based on historical data.
Historically, at these levels our markets would fall in value. It is this high level of un-affordability that probably leads many to suggest that we are in a ?housing bubble?. However, something has changed: The buyers in our markets. Our measure is likely no longer as valid as it once was, because the current buyers are no longer median income families. Median income families living in the median value areas of Sydney are largely renting.
Buyers of house and land are now second and third time housing buyers, with income levels which are much higher than the median income wage. Median income families who are buying are now buying on the city fringes where housing prices are slightly more affordable.
In my view, a market bubble exists when there is very significant growth in asset values and that growth in asset values is driven by borrowings. In more general terms it is driven by greed and lack of careful thought by both lenders and borrowers. It is excessive bank lending which allows leverage and preparedness by borrowers to pay unreasonable prices for property.
Are we in this situation currently? Nothing suggests we are. Banks and financial intermediaries are becoming a little more aggressive in working to maintain market share, however their risk management policies are acceptable. The driving force behind the growth in values seems to be existing home owners who have reasonable levels of income and assets to support their property purchases which are likely investments. In this situation the lenders can be more aggressive due to the capacity of borrowers to meet their obligations. Will interest rate increases cause these people problems? Probably only to a limited extent, due to the tax deductibility of interest; An interest rate increase of say 1 per cent for the average investor will impact on their cash flow much less than a home buyer as a 1 per cent increase for those on the marginal tax rate is around 0.5 per cent.
Will there be people who are going to get into trouble as a consequence of the current high house price growth cycle and the low interest rates? Yes, there are always people who over leverage and have changes in personal circumstance which cause issues.
cliff
Sydney is now more unaffordable than ever in recorded history; despite this, it is still showing strong growth, albeit at a lower rate;
Fortunately, growth in Sydney is slowing ? but not as quickly as expected. Based on median household income, the affordability measure is now at historic highs. It takes about 54 per cent of after tax income to make loan repayments on the median value home of $852,500; it takes close to 8 times the annual median income to buy the median Sydney home. These ratios are extraordinarily high based on historical data.
Historically, at these levels our markets would fall in value. It is this high level of un-affordability that probably leads many to suggest that we are in a ?housing bubble?. However, something has changed: The buyers in our markets. Our measure is likely no longer as valid as it once was, because the current buyers are no longer median income families. Median income families living in the median value areas of Sydney are largely renting.
Buyers of house and land are now second and third time housing buyers, with income levels which are much higher than the median income wage. Median income families who are buying are now buying on the city fringes where housing prices are slightly more affordable.
In my view, a market bubble exists when there is very significant growth in asset values and that growth in asset values is driven by borrowings. In more general terms it is driven by greed and lack of careful thought by both lenders and borrowers. It is excessive bank lending which allows leverage and preparedness by borrowers to pay unreasonable prices for property.
Are we in this situation currently? Nothing suggests we are. Banks and financial intermediaries are becoming a little more aggressive in working to maintain market share, however their risk management policies are acceptable. The driving force behind the growth in values seems to be existing home owners who have reasonable levels of income and assets to support their property purchases which are likely investments. In this situation the lenders can be more aggressive due to the capacity of borrowers to meet their obligations. Will interest rate increases cause these people problems? Probably only to a limited extent, due to the tax deductibility of interest; An interest rate increase of say 1 per cent for the average investor will impact on their cash flow much less than a home buyer as a 1 per cent increase for those on the marginal tax rate is around 0.5 per cent.
Will there be people who are going to get into trouble as a consequence of the current high house price growth cycle and the low interest rates? Yes, there are always people who over leverage and have changes in personal circumstance which cause issues.
cliff
RP Data -exceptionally strong conditions across the Sydney and Melbourne markets
RP Data
The September quarter saw capital city dwelling values rise by 2.9 per cent. According to RP Data national research director Tim Lawless, this was once again driven by exceptionally strong conditions across the Sydney and Melbourne markets where the quarterly capital gain rate was 4.1 per cent and 3.7 per cent respectively
Cliff
RP Data
The September quarter saw capital city dwelling values rise by 2.9 per cent. According to RP Data national research director Tim Lawless, this was once again driven by exceptionally strong conditions across the Sydney and Melbourne markets where the quarterly capital gain rate was 4.1 per cent and 3.7 per cent respectively
Cliff
ABC radio news this morning said Melb and others had gone backwards..I think they said 1% odd, Sydney was the only standout around the Country.
They also said this puts more weight behind the RBA statement to be cautious.
ABC radio news this morning said Melb and others had gone backwards..I think they said 1% odd, Sydney was the only standout around the Country.
They also said this puts more weight behind the RBA statement to be cautious.
It's a hype thread BayView - who cares about negative stats
It's a hype thread BayView - who cares about negative stats
Melbourne ....
Spot on . Also it's sydney , so who cares about Melbourne , especially after the swannies lost ....
BTW Bayview , if you'd read the report , you could have found more negative things to say , however overall it points to a slowing of the market , so maybe less need for RBA to interveen and maybe a more controlled , less boom and bust mode . If the rise is more gentle , less likelihood of a sharp correction
Cliff
Sydney October 4th auction preview
Sydney October 4th auction preview
The hot Sydney auction market will pause this weekend with the distraction of the Labour Day holiday weekend predictably impacting auction numbers.
250 homes are scheduled to go under the hammer this Saturday which is well below the 732 auctions conducted last weekend and similar to the 248 conducted over the same holiday weekend last year
The Sydney auction market passed its biggest-ever September test last weekend recording another exceptional clearance rate. Despite hosting a record number of auctions for a September Saturday the market reported its eighth consecutive weekend clearance rate above 80 percent with an 81.9 percent result.
The inner west reported the highest clearance rate of all the suburban regions last weekend with a 92.5 percent result from 93 reported auctions. This was closely followed by the upper north shore with a clearance rate of 89.3 percent, the city and east with 85.1 percent, the northern beaches at 84.1 percent, the south 84.0 percent, the lower north 80.4 percent, the west 78.7 percent and the north west with a clearance rate of 76.2 percent.
Prestige auction sales bounced back at the weekend with 26 sales reported above $2 million ? up on the 21 reported the previous weekend.
The Sydney auction market now enters October following a record performance over both August and September. Although activity levels will wind back temporarily this holiday weekend the prospects remain for strong market conditions to continue all the way to Xmas.
Underlying demand for housing in Sydney continues to rise offsetting to some degree the strong activity from investors currently providing record levels of new rental supply into the local market. Latest ABS data reports that the NSW population increased by 1.6 percent or 114,500 persons over the 12 months ending March this year. Of this increase, 76,274 were overseas migrants ? 24,494 over the March quarter alone the highest quarterly total since September 2008 ? and all of them needing somewhere to live.
The Reserve Bank meets next week for its regular monthly interest rate decision. With recent economic indicators remaining volatile and mixed with an improving jobs market, weakening sharemarket and sharply falling dollar, rates are likely to remain at the current level for the 14th consecutive month ? a result which will help keep the Sydney market bubbling along over spring.
Cliff
Sydney October 4th auction preview
The hot Sydney auction market will pause this weekend with the distraction of the Labour Day holiday weekend predictably impacting auction numbers.
250 homes are scheduled to go under the hammer this Saturday which is well below the 732 auctions conducted last weekend and similar to the 248 conducted over the same holiday weekend last year
The Sydney auction market passed its biggest-ever September test last weekend recording another exceptional clearance rate. Despite hosting a record number of auctions for a September Saturday the market reported its eighth consecutive weekend clearance rate above 80 percent with an 81.9 percent result.
The inner west reported the highest clearance rate of all the suburban regions last weekend with a 92.5 percent result from 93 reported auctions. This was closely followed by the upper north shore with a clearance rate of 89.3 percent, the city and east with 85.1 percent, the northern beaches at 84.1 percent, the south 84.0 percent, the lower north 80.4 percent, the west 78.7 percent and the north west with a clearance rate of 76.2 percent.
Prestige auction sales bounced back at the weekend with 26 sales reported above $2 million ? up on the 21 reported the previous weekend.
The Sydney auction market now enters October following a record performance over both August and September. Although activity levels will wind back temporarily this holiday weekend the prospects remain for strong market conditions to continue all the way to Xmas.
Underlying demand for housing in Sydney continues to rise offsetting to some degree the strong activity from investors currently providing record levels of new rental supply into the local market. Latest ABS data reports that the NSW population increased by 1.6 percent or 114,500 persons over the 12 months ending March this year. Of this increase, 76,274 were overseas migrants ? 24,494 over the March quarter alone the highest quarterly total since September 2008 ? and all of them needing somewhere to live.
The Reserve Bank meets next week for its regular monthly interest rate decision. With recent economic indicators remaining volatile and mixed with an improving jobs market, weakening sharemarket and sharply falling dollar, rates are likely to remain at the current level for the 14th consecutive month ? a result which will help keep the Sydney market bubbling along over spring.
Cliff
Following up on these two sales . Both sold . Tallong sold for 2.36 which I think is a good price for the vendor . At times it's hard to judge what is actual value as the is varati n from street to street . This house is close to the prices st shops which would be one of the cheaper areas in East Turramurra and prior to the current movement I would not have expected it to sell over 1.9 , so at its current price that's an increase of around 25 % . Even 2-3 months ago I would have been surprise to see it sell for more than 2.2 .
The second house at 44 Lockville has sold ( after auction ) under a confidentiality clause to a local REA . Prior to exchange I was told it was due to exchange between 2 - 2.1 which is 5-10 % up from where it was passed in at auction 2-3 months ago .
Cliff
Abnormal drop in listings for early spring: SQM Research
Abnormal drop in listings for early spring: SQM Research
Over September, the number of residential property sales listings went against the seasonal trend and actually decreased, according to SQM Research.
Sydney was ahead of the pack, with the biggest decrease on a monthly and yearly basis.
Nationally, unsold properties totalled 339,344 in September, which represented a 2.4% month on month decrease, and a 1.1% year on year drop.
Monthly decreases in stock were recorded in every capital other than Darwin. The number of unsold properties on the market in Darwin was up 26.4% year on year.
Managing director of SQM Research Louis Christopher said spring usually sees an increase in stock.
?It implies the market remains strong, particularly on the East Coast of Australia with buyers swooping on stock, often before the properties are formally listed for sale,? he said.
He believes that Sydney has led the recovery, and that Darwin is undergoing a correction.
Cliff
Abnormal drop in listings for early spring: SQM Research
Over September, the number of residential property sales listings went against the seasonal trend and actually decreased, according to SQM Research.
Sydney was ahead of the pack, with the biggest decrease on a monthly and yearly basis.
Nationally, unsold properties totalled 339,344 in September, which represented a 2.4% month on month decrease, and a 1.1% year on year drop.
Monthly decreases in stock were recorded in every capital other than Darwin. The number of unsold properties on the market in Darwin was up 26.4% year on year.
Managing director of SQM Research Louis Christopher said spring usually sees an increase in stock.
?It implies the market remains strong, particularly on the East Coast of Australia with buyers swooping on stock, often before the properties are formally listed for sale,? he said.
He believes that Sydney has led the recovery, and that Darwin is undergoing a correction.
Cliff
I'm expecting another over 80 % clearance rate this weekend .
Numbers are decreased due to the league grand final , however that is on Sunday , so shouldn't impact the number of people attending auctions the way that the Saturday AFL GF does in Melbourne .
So far all of the indicators suggest , to me , that growth in Sydney will continue in the short term . The RP Data figures showed slowing in the Australian market in September , however sydneynstill grew by 0.8 % which is close to 10 % for the year . Recent sales I've seen in my local area seem to suggest ongoing further increases in price ,
Cliff
Numbers are decreased due to the league grand final , however that is on Sunday , so shouldn't impact the number of people attending auctions the way that the Saturday AFL GF does in Melbourne .
So far all of the indicators suggest , to me , that growth in Sydney will continue in the short term . The RP Data figures showed slowing in the Australian market in September , however sydneynstill grew by 0.8 % which is close to 10 % for the year . Recent sales I've seen in my local area seem to suggest ongoing further increases in price ,
Cliff
Same expectation here. Hard to know with such a dip in volumes what the clearance rate will be but I imagine 82 or 83% is on the cards again.
Property Snapshot
Number Listed Auctions: 253
Number Reported Auctions: 174
Sold: 156
Withdrawn: 14
% Cleared: 83%
Total Sales: $147,977,800
Median: $927,500
Median's down a bit but still a smashing preliminary clearance rate.
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