See Change and Richard Feynman . let's hype the sydney market thread .

[Richard Feynman]

I meant to post these a couple of days ago:

Makes for interesting reading.

The key colours are wrong but I believe they're in order of the labels left to right.

 

[see_change]

Another strong auction result for Sydney despite holiday weekend

Another strong auction result for Sydney despite holiday weekend

8 weeks of above 80 % clearance rates ....

Sydney produced yet another exceptionally strong home auction clearance rate at the weekend despite relatively low listing numbers due to the distractions of the long weekend holiday break

The 83 percent clearance rate result now brings to eight the number of weekend results above 80 percent recorded by the Sydney market for what has been a remarkably consistent and unprecedented start to the spring selling season.

253 homes were listed to go under the hammer last Saturday which was well below the record September Saturday of 722 auctions conducted the previous weekend but similar to the 248 conducted over the same holiday weekend last year

Sydney?s four-weekend average clearance rate now stands at 83.0 percent compared to 82.5 percent over the previous four-weekend period.

The Reserve Bank meets this week for its regular monthly interest rate decision. With recent economic indicators remaining volatile and mixed with an improving jobs market, weakening sharemarket and sharply falling dollar, rates are likely to remain at the current level for the 14th consecutive month a result which will help keep the Sydney market bubbling along over spring.


Cliff

 

[redwing]

It's a hype thread BayView - who cares about negative stats

Exactly, this is the Planet Hype thread

 

[see_change]

Exactly, this is the Planet Hype thread

Redwing , we're only quoting reliable sources such as apm , RP data , ABS , and ... oh ... the Tele . and it Sydney , not the earth ...

Mmm , I wonder how those blocks of land they were selling on the moon a few years ago are going

Cliff

 

[see_change]

Strong Sydney auction market up and running after holiday pause

APM's preview of up coming weekends auctions .

Strong Sydney auction market up and running after holiday pause

The strong Sydney weekend home auction market resumes this Saturday after the pause in activity last weekend for the Labour Day holiday

731 auctions are listed for Sydney which is predictably well up on last weekend?s total of 250 and ahead of the 714 listed over the same weekend a year ago.


Despite a sharp drop in auctions last weekend, Sydney produced yet another exceptionally strong home auction clearance rate. The 83 percent result now brings to nine the number of weekend results above 80 percent recorded by the Sydney market for what has been a remarkably consistent and unprecedented start to the spring selling season.

Sydney?s four-weekend average clearance rate now stands at 83.0 percent compared to 82.5 percent over the previous four-weekend period.

High auction listing numbers will continue to test the Sydney market over coming weekends as vendors rush to take advantage of the still strong spring market conditions.

This week?s predictable decision by the Reserve Bank to leave official interest rates at the current low settings for the 14th consecutive month will help bolster confidence and keep the Sydney market bubbling along over the remainder of spring.

Rates are set to remain on hold over the foreseeable future with some downward bias if the economy - particularly the jobless number - deteriorates. Latest ABS data reports the New South Wales unemployment rate increased to 5.8 percent over September ? the highest monthly result for the year.

Cliff

 

[Redom]

Would be interesting to see how Sydney holds up if the RBA/APRA do begin restricting credit to investors. They tools have the ability to target individual locations, and Sydney will be the most concerning to the regulators. Very 1970s like, so i doubt they'll do it...

Haha dont mean to be a downer on a HYPE thread...perhaps you can put a positive spin on this!!

 

[Richard Feynman]

APM's preview of up coming weekends auctions .

Strong Sydney auction market up and running after holiday pause

The strong Sydney weekend home auction market resumes this Saturday after the pause in activity last weekend for the Labour Day holiday

731 auctions are listed for Sydney which is predictably well up on last weekend?s total of 250 and ahead of the 714 listed over the same weekend a year ago.


Despite a sharp drop in auctions last weekend, Sydney produced yet another exceptionally strong home auction clearance rate. The 83 percent result now brings to nine the number of weekend results above 80 percent recorded by the Sydney market for what has been a remarkably consistent and unprecedented start to the spring selling season.

Sydney?s four-weekend average clearance rate now stands at 83.0 percent compared to 82.5 percent over the previous four-weekend period.

High auction listing numbers will continue to test the Sydney market over coming weekends as vendors rush to take advantage of the still strong spring market conditions.

This week?s predictable decision by the Reserve Bank to leave official interest rates at the current low settings for the 14th consecutive month will help bolster confidence and keep the Sydney market bubbling along over the remainder of spring.

Rates are set to remain on hold over the foreseeable future with some downward bias if the economy - particularly the jobless number - deteriorates. Latest ABS data reports the New South Wales unemployment rate increased to 5.8 percent over September ? the highest monthly result for the year.

Cliff

I'll go with 82% this weekend

 

[z611143]

Can i sound stupid and ask what's a clearance rate?

Ive assumed before the correct answer, that a clearance rate is the percentage rate of houses sold above what they are valued at?

Sorry for the stupid question, oh and also another. Why are they so important, what do they tell you?

 

[The Fence]

Percentage of properties sold at auction.

Eg: 100 houses go to auction and 83 actually sell, 17 are passed in = 83% clearance rate.

Important as is assumed to be directly attributable to demand in real estate.

 

[The Fence]

Property Snapshot
Number Listed Auctions: 253
Number Reported Auctions: 174
Sold: 156
Withdrawn: 14
% Cleared: 83%
Total Sales: $147,977,800
Median: $927,500

Median's down a bit but still a smashing preliminary clearance rate.

Better explanation here ^^

 

[see_change]

Would be interesting to see how Sydney holds up if the RBA/APRA do begin restricting credit to investors. They tools have the ability to target individual locations, and Sydney will be the most concerning to the regulators. Very 1970s like, so i doubt they'll do it...

Haha dont mean to be a downer on a HYPE thread...perhaps you can put a positive spin on this!!

Did some reading on the impact in these changes in NZ recently .

My understanding is that it's slowing the market growth but certainly hasn't cause a stop or reversal .

My take is that it might take us away from the boom / bust mentality of a slower , more orderly growth which may be good for everyone .. ( Hows that )

The RBA have talked about specific locations and the locations that they have mentions are more the inner city units . If those crash , it's make it easier for my kids to buy in those areas in the next 2-4 years .

NZ reserves bank article talks about this

But in the short term ... If I heard talk that there might be changes coming in to limit what I could borrow to buy houses and I was thinking of buying more , what would I do ...

I'd seriously think about buying , NOW , WHILE I COULD , BEFORE THEY BROUGHT THOSE PROPOSED CHANGES IN ... ( very likely )

The other think I'd do , If I was thinking of selling properties to take a property and then buy more , I'd think about NOT selling .... ( I think this is less likely )

So short term , potentially less of the market , more people wanting to buy ... Prices go up more.

Another though, given Cashed up Asians buyers are buying everything in Sydney we may have no change

Cliff

 

[see_change]

I'll go with 82% this weekend

I think we'll be over 80 % again this week .

Record clearances for last 8 weeks .

What will be really interesting will be what happens in around 3- 4 weeks .

I've never watched the market as closely as I have over the last few months . Every one talks about increased number of listings in Spring and in the price bracket I've been following , this has happened this week . Normally there are somewhere between 1-4 new listings each week , but there are over ten this week . Total listings in my search Criteria up to 50 from 41

Given the hype in the market , I might have expected more . Most are listed to go to Auction end October / early Nov .

Cliff

 

[Redom]

Did some reading on the impact in these changes in NZ recently .

My understanding is that it's slowing the market growth but certainly hasn't cause a stop or reversal .

My take is that it might take us away from the boom / bust mentality of a slower , more orderly growth which may be good for everyone .. ( Hows that )

The RBA have talked about specific locations and the locations that they have mentions are more the inner city units . If those crash , it's make it easier for my kids to buy in those areas in the next 2-4 years .

NZ reserves bank article talks about this

But in the short term ... If I heard talk that there might be changes coming in to limit what I could borrow to buy houses and I was thinking of buying more , what would I do ...

I'd seriously think about buying , NOW , WHILE I COULD , BEFORE THEY BROUGHT THOSE PROPOSED CHANGES IN ... ( very likely )

The other think I'd do , If I was thinking of selling properties to take a property and then buy more , I'd think about NOT selling .... ( I think this is less likely )

So short term , potentially less of the market , more people wanting to buy ... Prices go up more.

Another though, given Cashed up Asians buyers are buying everything in Sydney we may have no change

Cliff

Interesting. So your saying that speculation of these tools being used may bring forward demand? Haha that'd be quite funny - it'd have the reverse effect in the short run to whats hoped!

Generally these tools take the 'tops of the booms'...although it may be too little too late in Sydney...depending on your view as to where the cycle is at.

 

[see_change]

Interesting. So your saying that speculation of these tools being used may bring forward demand? Haha that'd be quite funny - it'd have the reverse effect in the short run to whats hoped!

Yep Exactly .

If you were an aggressive investor who was going to buy in Sydney , what would you do ?

In the 80's when rates were going up , people were rushing to buy before they went any higher . I remember it clearly . Massive queues at the loans counters in the banks ( they used to have them )

cliff

 

[Redom]

Yep Exactly .

If you were an aggressive investor who was going to buy in Sydney , what would you do ?

In the 80's when rates were going up , people were rushing to buy before they went any higher . I remember it clearly . Massive queues at the loans counters in the banks ( they used to have them )

cliff

Yeah sounds very plausible. Expectations definitely drive behaviour, so it makes sense.

The tools are quite 'short term tools' - theyre not designed to be around for years and years (otherwise they'd misallocate capital permanently). Given that they're designed to take the tops of, the expectation of them coming in, may just mean we get to the top faster!!!

What was your expected clearance rate, 82%? Add another per cent or two. Haha knew this could have a positive spin.

 

[see_change]

What was your expected clearance rate, 82%? Add another per cent or two. Haha knew this could have a positive spin.

82 - 83 seems to be around the standard for a hot sydney market , so I'd expect around that . That seems take into account , unrealistic vendors or agents , crappy houses that no one wants and ones that fall through the cracks for what ever reason .

At the moment any house that is decent is selling unless the vendors want 2018 prices now .

It was interesting seeing all the buyers come out last spring and turn a hot market silly .

What happens now will come down to whether the new buyers coming in , out number the new houses coming on . That is crystal ball gazing , though based on past history I'll be surprised if we don't get another jump in the sydney market in the next two months . We took our PPOR off the market in expectation of that happening . I certainly see no obvious reason for the sydney market to slump.

Cliff

 

[see_change]

The bamboo bubble

Flood of China cash to so the seeds of a hundred towers

Interesting article on the impact of Chinese investors in Sydney .

Looks lik more to come .

Cliff

 

[charlieandkath]

Go Sydney. Give me another 45% by 2018/19.

 

[Deltaberry]

Flood of China cash to so the seeds of a hundred towers

Interesting article on the impact of Chinese investors in Sydney .

Looks lik more to come .

Cliff

They won't have an impact on house prices, because they can't buy established dwellings. Chinese buyers only drive up CBD land prices which don't affect average Australians. Only the big Australian families get richer. As an example, Lorenz Grollo bought a Collins St building for $10m in 2013. Just sold to Jeff Xu for $26m.

In fact, you'd argue the apartments they're building dampens house prices, and the Australian Government should welcome more Asian developers who are creating more supply and helping solve the housing crisis.

 

[Richard Feynman]

Saturday 11th October 2014
Property Snapshot
Number Listed Auctions: 747
Number Reported Auctions: 533
Sold: 449
Withdrawn: 33
% Cleared: 79 %
Total Sales: $455,690,105
Median: $950,500