See Change and Richard Feynman . let's hype the sydney market thread .

record breaking spring selling season regathered its energy.

Nice positive spin today

Record breaking spring selling season regathered its energy

The Sydney weekend home auction market bounced back at the weekend recording a clearance rate of 81.1 percent despite over 700 properties going under the hammer.

Last weekend the clearance rate dipped below 80 percent for the first time in two months as the highest number of auctions since May weighed down buyer activity. High auction numbers were however no impediment to the market on Saturday as the record breaking spring selling season regathered its energy.

Sydney?s south took over from the usual leader the inner west as the best suburban region performer at the weekend with an exceptional clearance rate of 90.6 percent reflecting 87 sales from 90 listings. Next best was the city and east with 85.1 percent closely followed by the north west with 85 percent, the upper north shore 83.3 percent, the central coast 81.8 percent, the northern beaches 81.5 percent and Canterbury Bankstown 80.6. The inner west however recorded its lowest clearance rate for the spring with a 76.5 percent result.

Cliff
 
WA loses crown as top State

WA has lost its mantle as the nation's strongest economy.

In a sign of WA's changing economic fortunes, it could be overtaken by a string of other States unless the housing sector remains strong.

CommSec's quarterly assessment of the state of the States shows WA was replaced by NSW as the country's strongest economy on the back of increasing population growth, business investment and unemployment.
Click to expand...
 
The inner west however recorded its lowest clearance rate for the spring with a 76.5 percent result
Click to expand...

Surprisingly low.

More on the NSW economy from Pete Wargent:

http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2014/10/nsw-is-now-1-economy-and-set-to-get.html said:
NSW is now the #1 economy (and set to get stronger)

I've been suggesting on this blog for the past couple of years that with an infrastructure and dwelling deficit New South Wales was set to become the strongest economy in Australia.

And now it is indeed confirmed as so, according to Commsec's latest quarterly report.

On the flip side, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) are laggards, bringing up the rear for the Australian economy.


Well worth a read from the Sydney Morning Herald:

"It has taken more than a decade but NSW has re-emerged as Australia's strongest state economy.

NSW leads the nation's economic pack having edged out the minerals-rich Western Australia, which has held the number one spot for the past three years, a quarterly review of the states by Australia's biggest bank has found.

The key factor in NSW's economic resurgence has been the strength of the housing sector. New dwelling commencements in NSW were more than 36 per cent above the decade average, said the "State of the States" report by the Commonwealth Bank's stockbroking arm, Commsec.

More than 52,000 dwellings were approved in NSW in the 12 months to July, the highest level since May 2000.

It is the first time NSW has been in the top spot since Commsec started its state rankings in 2008. The last time NSW was the nation's clear economic leader was in the early 2000s following the Sydney Olympics.

Premier Mike Baird said he was proud the state economy was leading the nation.

"NSW is shining again," he said. "And a strong NSW means a strong Australia."

Commsec economist Savanth Sebastian said the housing sector had been the state's economic "X-factor".

"That has propelled NSW to the top of the leader board," he said. "It's been a meteoric rise. If anything I think the momentum shift in NSW is going to get stronger over the next six to 12 months."

NSW was ranked in the top spot for dwelling commencements and population growth, and second for retail trade, business investment and unemployment. It ranked third on housing finance and fourth on overall construction work.

"It's well over a decade since NSW was as strong as it is now," Mr Savanth said.

The Commsec report assesses each state according to economic growth, retail spending, equipment investment, unemployment, construction work, population growth, housing finance and dwelling commencements. The latest level of each indicator is compared with the state's decade average.

The most recent official growth figures released by the Bureau of Statistics showed growth in NSW's State Final Demand ? a key indicator of state economic activity ? was the strongest in Australia at 3.6 per cent.

Factors beyond the state government's control ? especially record low interest rates and a weaker Australian dollar ? have been crucial to NSW's economic improvement.

Even so, the strength of the state economy is a boon for Mr Baird with economic management sure to be a centrepiece of the Coalition's bid for re-election in March.

"When we came in to government NSW was pretty much at the bottom of the pack," Mr Baird said.

"But we've methodically gone about restoring the economy, investing in the drivers of the economy ? it's clear that from an economic management perspective we are delivering for the people of this state."

In another vote of confidence in the NSW economy, international ratings agency Standard and Poor's last week upgraded the outlook for the state's triple-A credit rating.

Mr Baird said the groundwork had been done to allow a pipeline of infrastructure spending in NSW that would underpin future jobs growth and help boost productivity.

"Now is when the jobs start to fall from the sky," he said.

"We are literally going into an age of sunshine for NSW because of the benefits of that infrastructure spending."

Mr Baird said robust growth was essential if the state government was to deliver the services and infrastructure expected by voters.

"Not only is the economy in NSW moving but we are back to leading the nation," he said."
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Following on from last weekend , one agent mentioned that they had less people at open , but more serious buyers .

Just looking at sold properties in our area. There was a lull in sales over the school holidays , but just noticed seven have sold in the last week - ten days including two we saw on the weekend .

Looks like the market is about to move again , though whether it is just in volume or price will be the question .

Cliff
 
The median is creeping higher and higher

http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/sydneys-median-house-price-hits-844000-20141022-119ral.html

Sydney house prices grew by $10,000 a month over the September quarter while the nation's other capital cities floundered, new figures show.

According to Domain Group's House Price Report the city's median house price grew by a further 3.8 per cent over the quarter to an all-time high of $843,994.

House prices have now increased by 16.6 per cent over the past year - a $120,000 jump.

The senior economist for the Domain Group, Andrew Wilson, pointed the finger at investors who had been drawn into the market by the prospect of capital gains.

St George Banking Group senior economist Hans Kunnen said one of the key drivers of the Sydney market was "the belief - a potentially mistaken belief - that house prices will continue to rise and capital growth will be achieved".

But Dr Wilson said Sydney's solid price growth would not continue.

"The clock is now ticking for that market as further signs of moderation are emerging," he said.

With more supply coming on Sydney apartment prices were more subdued over the quarter, growing by 1.6 per cent to $580,861.

Mr Kunnen expects that as affordability constraints kick in the market will "strangle itself because people are unable to buy".

But the HSBC's chief economist, Paul Bloxham, is more bullish in his assessment and said the city will "continue to see very solid house price growth until the Reserve Bank lifts interest rates".

"And we don't expect that to happen until the middle of next year," he said.

McGrath Estate Agents chief executive John McGrath said a lack of supply and continuing demand from local and overseas investors would result in further price increases.

"There is probably 15 per cent or more growth before this cycle plateaus," he said.

Although Sydney's market continues to surge, the national median house price increased by just 1.2 per cent over the quarter with most capital cities recording a decline in prices.

Melbourne experienced less than a third of Sydney's growth over the quarter with house prices up by 1 per cent.

Darwin, a fairly volatile housing market, recorded a price increase of 2.8 per cent, bringing its yearly growth to -1.7 per cent.

Australia's worst performing city was Canberra with house prices down by 1.7 per cent followed by Perth (-1.5 per cent), Brisbane and Hobart with (-1.3 per cent) and Adelaide (-1 per cent).
 
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It's been interesting watching Andrew Wilson cherry picking selective bits of data over the last few weeks to add a note of caution to his commentary which has continued to document a strong market . For each bit hie has quoted , it would be equally easy to quote other data which would support ongoing strength .

Personally I think he "feels " the market might be about to change and then is finding data to support it , something I'd never do :rolleyes:.....

This thread has been an interesting learning experience for me in that I've never watched the market this closely for a period of time in terms of reading reports and then seeing what's actually happening .

Last two weeks saw a lot of new properties hit the market , but this week relatively little so .

I'm still wondering whether a lot of potential listings were brought forward into winter ( which did have high volumes ) , and if there's not much more coming on , with seemingly more serious buyers , we might see the market get stronger over the next weeks, then again ....we may not

Cliff
 
26 % growth in NSW home loans

26 % growth in NSW home loans


The numbers speak for themselves: $67 billion in housing finance has been approved over the first eight months of this year in NSW, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

That's an increase of about 26 per cent over the same period last year and represents 36 per cent of all housing finance approved in Australia.

Over the past year, Sydney has recorded its best house price growth since 2002, clearly outperforming all other capital city markets. House sales volumes remain at record levels as confidence and enthusiasm remain fully restored in the marketplace.


The Sydney ABS unemployment rate over September stands at 5.4 per cent, now the lowest of all state capitals. ABS retail sales in NSW have increased by 3.1 per cent over the first half of this year, again the best performance of all the states.

Economic activity has also been driven by population growth with almost 25,000 new overseas migrants coming into NSW over the March quarter, the highest quarterly result since 2008, and all seeking somewhere to live.
.

Low interest rates have been the key catalyst of energising the Sydney housing market, releasing pent up demand and improving affordability to the highest levels since 2010.

House price growth is set to moderate in Sydney as incomes growth remains subdued despite the solid local economy. Subdued incomes and profit growth constrains the capacity of buyers to bid up house prices.

The boomtime prices growth of the past year was clearly unsustainable with the market now likely to enter a period of more stable and orderly prices growth.

Despite the flattening of house price growth from the extraordinary levels of a year ago, Sydney's robust housing market will continue to generate downstream economic activity with sales volumes remaining high.

Interesting article , he starts off by saying let the numbers speak for themselves , which show a massive increase increase in finance ,mbut when he starts talking about affordability restraining the market , he doesn't provide us with data to back that us .

It wasn't that long ago we were being told that affordability was very good.

If the figures this year so far are much higher than last year I'm wondering why things are suddenly going to change . This time last year was just as the market was jumping leading into Christmas .

We had a flyer delivered to our house trying to drum up property to sell .
The comment I found interesting was they said they have never seen stocks of property for sale so low at this time of the year .

Cliff
 
Sydney housing market still strong as auctions rise

Sydney housing market still strong as auctions rise

The Sydney home auction market bounced back last weekend recording a clearance rate of 81.1 percent despite over 700 properties going under the hammer.

The previous weekend the clearance rate dipped below 80 percent for the first time in two months as the highest number of auctions since May weighed down buyer activity. High auction numbers were however no impediment to the market last Saturday as the record breaking spring selling season regathered its energy.

Latest house price data from APM Pricefinder reports that Sydney?s housing market clearly remains the best performer of all the capital cities.

Sydney?s median house price increased by 3.8 percent over the September quarter to a new record $843,994. Sydney?s median house price is up by 16.6 percent over the past year or a rise of $120,466.

I'm predicting another 80 % + clearance .

Cliff
 
How high can we go? I just couldn't imagine 2 br townhouses in Marsfield, $500,000 in 2011, now is $700,000 and in 8-10 years time will become $900K-$1M. How people are supposed to buy?
 
Jesus 900k or so for a 14 year old home in pendle hill us considered good value?? I'm glad I don't live in Sydney, worse value for money city in Australia when it comes to housing imo
 
ferdinandch said:
How high can we go? I just couldn't imagine 2 br townhouses in Marsfield, $500,000 in 2011, now is $700,000 and in 8-10 years time will become $900K-$1M. How people are supposed to buy?
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Who cares? Providing we have our ips set up, there'll be plenty of the disillusioned who will have to rent.
 
sanj said:
Jesus 900k or so for a 14 year old home in pendle hill us considered good value?? I'm glad I don't live in Sydney, worse value for money city in Australia when it comes to housing imo
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I believe you are talking about 1 Camillo Street Pendle Hill
If it is then how much would you allocate for the building alone?
Who did consider this as good value (apart from the buyer)?
 
devank said:
I believe you are talking about 1 Camillo Street Pendle Hill
If it is then how much would you allocate for the building alone?
Who did consider this as good value (apart from the buyer)?
Click to expand...

Ms ali below thought it was good value. Sydney is crazy, nearly $1m to live in a 14 year old dated house with average finishes and 1 car garage on 550sqm 30km from cbd

MsAli said:
Saw the coldest ever auction at 16 Callala Grove, Pendle Hill. One bid, vendor bid, same bidder bid again - 550k, 615k, 620k. The lot was crap, on the low side.

The other 1 Camillo St, Pendle Hill, sold for 935k. Rather surprised. 550+sqm lot, 14 year old double story home within 1 km of station. I think it went cheap given good levelled blocks with old clad homes are selling for 640k-695k or so. Cost of bulilding is high now, so a similar home if built from scratch would cost 1050k - 1150k.....
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As an example - similar sized house and spec levels, probably touch less dated than the sydney one. Bigger block by 20%, similar price.

Only 7 or 8km from CBD as opposed to 30km.

You can see why I'm shocked.
http://m.realestate.com.au/property-house-wa-bedford-118048087
 
sanj said:
Ms ali below thought it was good value. Sydney is crazy, nearly $1m to live in a 14 year old dated house with average finishes and 1 car garage on 550sqm 30km from cbd



As an example - similar sized house and spec levels, probably touch less dated than the sydney one. Bigger block by 20%, similar price.

Only 7 or 8km from CBD as opposed to 30km.

You can see why I'm shocked.
http://m.realestate.com.au/property-house-wa-bedford-118048087
Click to expand...

That is a gorgeous home Sanj.

It is unfortunate - but you can't get much in Sydney for $900K (big home + big block) - at least around Parramatta; unless you go further out west.

Each to their own, for us price is not a consideration in terms of where we want to live; especially working in the Financial Services industry - we wouldn't want to be anywhere else.
 
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