See Change and Richard Feynman . let's hype the sydney market thread .
- Thread starter see_change
- Start date
Who knows , maybe this thread might still be going in 30 years time
Cliff
I'll still be posting
Hyping for 30 years ?
Yep
I can also see the title of the Poll that Richard just posted , " when will Sydney median hit 10 mill... " Cliff
Sydney and Melbourne lead Australian home values higher
RP Data's latest October growth sums things up nicely
Sydney and Melbourne lead Australian home values higher
Sydney continues as a standout with home values increasing at a rate of more than 1 per cent a month, up 3.9 per cent over the past three months.
Cliff
RP Data's latest October growth sums things up nicely
Sydney and Melbourne lead Australian home values higher
Sydney continues as a standout with home values increasing at a rate of more than 1 per cent a month, up 3.9 per cent over the past three months.
Cliff
Why Sydney is continuing to rise
If we're looking for a reason why Sydney is ( and IMHO will ) continuing to rise , you only have to look at the Sydney Graph in this article to find the answer
Here is a direct link to the graph which makes it easier to see the axis.
The key facts are that for this time of the year , the level of total listing is lower than it has been for the last six years , most relevant compared with last year . The level of new listing is comparable to last year but notice how the number of new listings drop at this time each year and I think this week is about the time that happens .
So with high clearances , historically low levels of stock and the level of stock about to drop , the next month will be interesting.
Cliff
If we're looking for a reason why Sydney is ( and IMHO will ) continuing to rise , you only have to look at the Sydney Graph in this article to find the answer
Here is a direct link to the graph which makes it easier to see the axis.
The key facts are that for this time of the year , the level of total listing is lower than it has been for the last six years , most relevant compared with last year . The level of new listing is comparable to last year but notice how the number of new listings drop at this time each year and I think this week is about the time that happens .
So with high clearances , historically low levels of stock and the level of stock about to drop , the next month will be interesting.
Cliff
Sydney a true international city attracting all sorts of people, business, sports, arts, etc.
Melbourne the same. Perth...well not so, but may just get there one day. If only it didnt have to rely solely on resources.
Syd will always lead the property market in Australia, the rest will follow according to their own parameters.
Melbourne the same. Perth...well not so, but may just get there one day. If only it didnt have to rely solely on resources.
Syd will always lead the property market in Australia, the rest will follow according to their own parameters.
Why house prices will keep surging
Why house prices will keep surging
I haven't been checking the Business Spectator web site before but this article was linked from another web Site m putting the case that price rises are accelerating rather than slowing which seems to be the general party line amongst commentators
t?s been confirmed! Far from slowing, the property market is accelerating, and that?s despite the considerable jawboning efforts of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The actual result is a little lower than what RP Data?s daily index implied, but it?s still impressive. Taking that result, it looks as though house prices surged an annualised 11.4% in the second-half of 2014, a marked pick-up from the 6.6% rate we saw in the first half of 2014.
Now, while it?s probably true to say that there is a sizeable difference in performance between the major capital cities, it?s not all that helpful to obsess about that. As chart 1 shows, total returns, outside of Canberra perhaps, are very attractive relative to the cost of debt. I mean you can borrow at less than 5%, and while property prices in, say Perth, may not be going gangbusters ? down 0.1% in the month and only 3.4% higher annually ? your total return (which includes rent) is still nearly 3% above what you pay to borrow. That?s the benefit of a 4.2% rental yield. You can?t even get that on a bank deposit!
Looking elsewhere, the spread of your total return to borrowing costs (i.e. the difference between what it costs to borrow and the return you get on that from property) is much more favourable and rises to 12.6% in Sydney. This is important, because left unchecked house price inflation creates its own momentum. That?s especially the case when:
For would-be owner-occupiers there is only one thing to consider. In Sydney and Melbourne, you?re going backwards waiting for the housing market to crash in the hope of buying in at cheaper levels.
You need to save $88,000 per year in Sydney just to keep up. In Melbourne, that?s about $50,000. Yet, in both cases, that?s well above the capacity of most. The average annual wage is roughly $75,000. While the other capital cities appear to be lagging somewhat at this point, it?s only a matter of time before they catch up (in terms of price growth).
Why house prices will keep surging
I haven't been checking the Business Spectator web site before but this article was linked from another web Site m putting the case that price rises are accelerating rather than slowing which seems to be the general party line amongst commentators
t?s been confirmed! Far from slowing, the property market is accelerating, and that?s despite the considerable jawboning efforts of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The actual result is a little lower than what RP Data?s daily index implied, but it?s still impressive. Taking that result, it looks as though house prices surged an annualised 11.4% in the second-half of 2014, a marked pick-up from the 6.6% rate we saw in the first half of 2014.
Now, while it?s probably true to say that there is a sizeable difference in performance between the major capital cities, it?s not all that helpful to obsess about that. As chart 1 shows, total returns, outside of Canberra perhaps, are very attractive relative to the cost of debt. I mean you can borrow at less than 5%, and while property prices in, say Perth, may not be going gangbusters ? down 0.1% in the month and only 3.4% higher annually ? your total return (which includes rent) is still nearly 3% above what you pay to borrow. That?s the benefit of a 4.2% rental yield. You can?t even get that on a bank deposit!
Looking elsewhere, the spread of your total return to borrowing costs (i.e. the difference between what it costs to borrow and the return you get on that from property) is much more favourable and rises to 12.6% in Sydney. This is important, because left unchecked house price inflation creates its own momentum. That?s especially the case when:
For would-be owner-occupiers there is only one thing to consider. In Sydney and Melbourne, you?re going backwards waiting for the housing market to crash in the hope of buying in at cheaper levels.
You need to save $88,000 per year in Sydney just to keep up. In Melbourne, that?s about $50,000. Yet, in both cases, that?s well above the capacity of most. The average annual wage is roughly $75,000. While the other capital cities appear to be lagging somewhat at this point, it?s only a matter of time before they catch up (in terms of price growth).
Sydney housing remains strong as auctions rise
Andrew Wilsons getting back on board the hype train after appearing to have his doubts over the last month . In reality what showed up in the last month was a slight decrease in clearance coinciding with the school holidays .
Sydney housing remains strong as auctions rise
The latest house-price data from Domain Group's APM Pricefinder shows that Sydney's housing market remains the best performer of all the capital cities.
The city's median house price increased by 3.8 per cent over the September quarter to a new record of $843,994. Sydney's median house price is up by 16.6 per cent over the past year, or a rise of $120,466 to the median price.
Sydney's unit prices also increased over the September quarter, up by 1.6 per cent to $580,861, for an increase of 11.5 per cent over the year. The median unit price in Sydney now exceeds the median house price in Adelaide, Brisbane, Hobart and Canberra and is closing in fast on Melbourne and Perth house prices.
The Sydney home auction market bounced back above 80 per cent last weekend, recording a clearance rate of 81.1 per cent despite more than 700 properties going under the hammer.
On the previous weekend the clearance rate dipped below 80 per cent for the first time in two months, as the highest number of auctions since May weighed down buyer activity. But high auction numbers were no impediment to the market last Saturday.
Cliff
Andrew Wilsons getting back on board the hype train after appearing to have his doubts over the last month . In reality what showed up in the last month was a slight decrease in clearance coinciding with the school holidays .
Sydney housing remains strong as auctions rise
The latest house-price data from Domain Group's APM Pricefinder shows that Sydney's housing market remains the best performer of all the capital cities.
The city's median house price increased by 3.8 per cent over the September quarter to a new record of $843,994. Sydney's median house price is up by 16.6 per cent over the past year, or a rise of $120,466 to the median price.
Sydney's unit prices also increased over the September quarter, up by 1.6 per cent to $580,861, for an increase of 11.5 per cent over the year. The median unit price in Sydney now exceeds the median house price in Adelaide, Brisbane, Hobart and Canberra and is closing in fast on Melbourne and Perth house prices.
The Sydney home auction market bounced back above 80 per cent last weekend, recording a clearance rate of 81.1 per cent despite more than 700 properties going under the hammer.
On the previous weekend the clearance rate dipped below 80 per cent for the first time in two months, as the highest number of auctions since May weighed down buyer activity. But high auction numbers were no impediment to the market last Saturday.
Cliff
Yep
Cliff
I'll still be around when $100mil is on the cards -- only half a century away.
every so often I rediscover a web site or find a feature on a site that I hadn't seen before.
Just rediscovered sqm Research , inparticular their stock on market graph which enables you to track the number of properties on the market .
I've been doing my own back of tthe envelope tracking on our own suburb , but the sqm graph of wahroonga ( 2076 ) has reinforced my own observations about the lack of stock compared with previous years
It's interesting comparing the 2076 chart with 2770 ( Mt Druitt ) . In Wahroonga you can clearly see the peak in listings each year in October and the subsequent drop over the following 3-4 months . This represents people listing their properties in Spring and the people buying over the next 3-4 months leading up to christmas and the new year . This is the typical cycle that the market likes to talk about , suggesting a planned recurring pattern to the motives behind sales in wahroonga . In terms of conclusions about what might happen in Wahroonga, the levels of listing in this october are at the lowest they have been for last six years . If the drop in the next months reproduces what has happened in previous years , we will be taken to the lowest stock levels over that period and significantly below what happened last year , when we had a big jump in the market .
There is a secondary peak in march / April and most years this peak is lower than the october peak , but last year and this year , the stock levels in October were lower than the preceding April.
Given that the underlying driver that moves the market is supply and demand this further reinforces a conclusion that ( at least in wahronga ) I'd expect further movement in price.
The interesting thing about 2770 is there is no such consistent recurring pattern . Some years there is a tick up in October , but sometimes the peak is occurring at different times , seemingly random . The main conclusion I can draw is that there is no such degree of planning associated with the timing of people buying and selling property within Mt Druitt.
Cliff
Just rediscovered sqm Research , inparticular their stock on market graph which enables you to track the number of properties on the market .
I've been doing my own back of tthe envelope tracking on our own suburb , but the sqm graph of wahroonga ( 2076 ) has reinforced my own observations about the lack of stock compared with previous years
It's interesting comparing the 2076 chart with 2770 ( Mt Druitt ) . In Wahroonga you can clearly see the peak in listings each year in October and the subsequent drop over the following 3-4 months . This represents people listing their properties in Spring and the people buying over the next 3-4 months leading up to christmas and the new year . This is the typical cycle that the market likes to talk about , suggesting a planned recurring pattern to the motives behind sales in wahroonga . In terms of conclusions about what might happen in Wahroonga, the levels of listing in this october are at the lowest they have been for last six years . If the drop in the next months reproduces what has happened in previous years , we will be taken to the lowest stock levels over that period and significantly below what happened last year , when we had a big jump in the market .
There is a secondary peak in march / April and most years this peak is lower than the october peak , but last year and this year , the stock levels in October were lower than the preceding April.
Given that the underlying driver that moves the market is supply and demand this further reinforces a conclusion that ( at least in wahronga ) I'd expect further movement in price.
The interesting thing about 2770 is there is no such consistent recurring pattern . Some years there is a tick up in October , but sometimes the peak is occurring at different times , seemingly random . The main conclusion I can draw is that there is no such degree of planning associated with the timing of people buying and selling property within Mt Druitt.
Cliff
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Following on from the recent post re sqm data and my personal focus on 2076 the asking price graph shows a dramatic change in the asking price in the last month
It shows a jump from under one mill to around 1.5 in around a month . I'd love to say that prices in my suburb have jumped 50 % in one month , but that's not the case .
This has occured as a result of two factors . One, a dramatic increase in listings over 2.5 mil and two , a continued strength in the lower end of the market with most lower priced properties selling quickly . While there are sales over 2.5 , properties in this segment of the market typically take longer to sell so we have a relatively larger percentage of properties coming from the more expensive segment of the market.
Cliff
It shows a jump from under one mill to around 1.5 in around a month . I'd love to say that prices in my suburb have jumped 50 % in one month , but that's not the case .
This has occured as a result of two factors . One, a dramatic increase in listings over 2.5 mil and two , a continued strength in the lower end of the market with most lower priced properties selling quickly . While there are sales over 2.5 , properties in this segment of the market typically take longer to sell so we have a relatively larger percentage of properties coming from the more expensive segment of the market.
Cliff
The thing that I found interesting when looking at different suburbs which have a large discrepancy between the high end and entry level properties, it the number of spikes between months leaving the monthly averages quite variable - that is if there are a few high priced houses sold >$2m followed by entry level at $1.1m there is a massive swing in the averages on these graphs. This doesn't seem to happen where there is more uniformity in the housing stock eg: value end of the market.
I poked around there a while ago and noticed a declining trend in stock where my IPs are. Just had another look to confirm it's still the case.
Really valuable tool!
I've added lines over the last 2.5 years to highlight the trend.
Hi Richard*
Your suburb looks interesting at the moment . Each year there is a drop in listings after October . Normal there is a rise in October , but this year the rise has been earlier in August / September . In all likelihood this is from people taking advantage and bringing their sales forward . As a result the number of Listings this October is significantly lower than it has been in previous Octobers .
I'd expect to have the normal drop off in November / December . This is highly supportive of a further increase in prices .
Cliff*
Your suburb looks interesting at the moment . Each year there is a drop in listings after October . Normal there is a rise in October , but this year the rise has been earlier in August / September . In all likelihood this is from people taking advantage and bringing their sales forward . As a result the number of Listings this October is significantly lower than it has been in previous Octobers .
I'd expect to have the normal drop off in November / December . This is highly supportive of a further increase in prices .
Cliff*
Another big weekend for Sydney with low rates
Another big weekend for Sydney with low rates
The local weekend auction market remains irrepressible and keeps rising toward record levels. This weekend Sydney has 928 auctions listed which are again up on last weekend?s 883 listings and well ahead of the 802 auctions conducted over the same weekend last year.
The Sydney home auction market steamed into November last weekend at record pace despite an unprecedented surge in auction numbers for this time of the year.
Sydney recorded a boom-time 82.4 percent clearance rate which was well ahead of the previous weekend?s 78.9 percent result and also above the 81.2 percent recorded over the same weekend last year.
Cliff
Another big weekend for Sydney with low rates
The local weekend auction market remains irrepressible and keeps rising toward record levels. This weekend Sydney has 928 auctions listed which are again up on last weekend?s 883 listings and well ahead of the 802 auctions conducted over the same weekend last year.
The Sydney home auction market steamed into November last weekend at record pace despite an unprecedented surge in auction numbers for this time of the year.
Sydney recorded a boom-time 82.4 percent clearance rate which was well ahead of the previous weekend?s 78.9 percent result and also above the 81.2 percent recorded over the same weekend last year.
Cliff
Now this is insane: single story house on 708sqm in Greystanes sold for 1.58 mill!
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-greystanes-117702299
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-greystanes-117702299
Omg... Well it can accommodate 12 cars...
I wonder what the former owners were thinking? May be they had a collection!!
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