Steve Keen finally admits he was wrong!

[evand]

I inform myself. I take on board what all these self interest parties say but ultimately i go my own way. And have just done fine doing so if i say so myself.

But i look at it like, you know the saying about 'opinions are like %$&! holes, everyone has one.' And that's all they are, opinions.

Mentioning people start a class action against Keen is one of the silliest things i have read on a public forum. Its a joke, right?

People have to take responsibility for their own actions and not blame others they might have seen or heard on the media.

People are quick to claim their success as their own but blame others for their own failure.

I don't understand this... surely economic forecasts etc form part of your decision making process?

 

[keithj]

I'm still waiting to see evidence of your predictions pre stimulus. I mean evidence from this forum.

Here's some of my predictions from Jan......

It's in no-ones interest for long term negative or zero capital return. The govt & RBA & banks & existing property owners will do all they can to avoid it. It will lead to the loss of retirement savings, the loss of the wealth effect, the possible failure of the banking system and a deflationary spiral (a la Japan). It's only in the interest of a v. few investors (like you) and FHB - both of which are in a minority.

....

I can see some Commercial IP falling >50% as the economy stalls & businesses go broke - unlisted property has in the past followed listed property which has already fallen by 40-95%.
I can envisage falls of 50% in some specific circumstances - eg mining towns, top end property.
I can see the bottom end staying flattish - being supported by FHB with FHOG & low IRs.
I'd expect the huge majority of the rest to have lower turnover, and increased distressed sales as unemployment rises. A few sales will bring down the medians.
So I feel the market is likely to compress from the top - a good time to try to upgrade because the next suburb up will be relatively less expensive.

...and from September last year.....

......

The premise for most D&G threads (including this one) is that we're all doomed if we continue like this and nothing changes.

We humans got to the top of the food chain because we're really good at adapting to the prevailing circumstances. We change stuff all the time -

• last quarters D&G was that the impending IR increases will send us all broke.... then the RBA changed them.....
• last months D&G was the local banks being overly reliant on O/S funding... then the banks changed things by making deposits more attractive.....
• last weeks D&G was the US credit crisis would send the US into a depression.... then the Fed changed things by banning short selling & setting up TARP.

Stuff changes all the time, my brain is too full of the important stuff to worry about D&G that I have no control over & is v. likely to change anyway .

 

[evand]

None? What a laugh. You lose credibility real quick with that stuff.

I have read many posts just on here about people making bad buying decisions and having to sell the farm to survive. If it wasn't for their high wages (or their partners high wages) to survive they would be IP'less and possibly, worse case PPOR'less.

Quite a few prominent posters were struggling during the last rising interest rate cycle. And that's just on this forum. It happens everywhere.

There are plenty in non forum lend where they are (hopefully) less educated.)

Or i should re phrase that as i hope the forum posters are better educated in this stuff than the unwashed public. But it still happens here. With alarming regularity!

Also, A lot of people suffered and sold their properties in the 90s when property went no where and backwards in CPI terms. Were you buying then?

Many people go backwards from buying IP's than do well. And that's mostly because they have bought a dream that was sold to them by someone in the industry.

So far none, because the spruikers have largely been correct. Aside from some minor blips in some submarkets, Australian property prices have maintained their upwards trajectory for a long time. Perhaps we will have a crash in the future, but until that happens, the dodgy spruikers have been spot on.

 

[evand]

I'd hate to see you with a sole opinion on the forum Rock. Couldn't have that mate.

I don't value peoples opinion too much because they usually less successful than i am, know less than i do and/or have the life experience of my 9yo daughter.

If you had failed, would you have blamed the 'peoples opinion' that kick started your investing journey.

When or how should one alter ones philosophy then Evan? Experience only?
Peoples opinion kick started my investing journey and has made me plenty of money. I still value those peoples opinion and they continue to affect my investing philosophy. I am sure I am not alone here.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

last months D&G was the local banks being overly reliant on O/S funding... then the banks changed things by making deposits more attractive.......

which changed our reliance on wholesale foreign funding by how much?

 

[keithj]

which changed our reliance on wholesale foreign funding by how much?

Perhaps you'd like to start a new thread on wholesale foreign funding, rather than hijacking another one.

 

[steveadl]

All these characters are all the anonymous posters who find it so easy to endlessly criticise someone for having ago.

Oh you mean like the people that shares Keen's views on SS who come on anonymously to bag people having a go at property investing?

So what if he was wrong. Why so much outrage and ridicule?

It all comes across as a bunch of insecure little investors taking much pleasure poking fun at someone because they had the kahunas to have a go.

At least he had the balls to state what he believed publicly. It is easy to bag someone from behind a monitor, safe at home with no risk whatsoever.

Again you must also classify that as doomsday posters that came here to bag us? I think you'll find it's the views of the person - such as Keen in this case - that are being questioned on SS. They questioned posters here the same way they questioned Keen's diatribes and the same way someone else that got their attention would have been eg. if Robert Gotleibsen came out predicting 40% resi crash.

People might not realise it but that is the path (and mindset) to stay small and the road to Loserville.

Why would participating in an online community like SS lead you to staying small and on the road to loserville? The ideas and thoughts that are shared here have helped countless people on their own individual road to wealth. How would they have gone listening to courageous people like Keen in the media? I'd say many here have done better financially in the last year than Keen has who you're applauding for stating his views (unless of course he got paid for all those media interviews). Just because the media gave him a pulpit because his theories got good ratings, doesn't make his opinion anymore valid or courageous - just means he managed to grab their attention.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

Perhaps you'd like to start a new thread on wholesale foreign funding, rather than hijacking another one.

Does anyone else think I am trying to hijack this thread?

 

[kum yin lau]

Hi, evand, are the PIs struggling last year better or worse off today than those who doomed and gloomed and sat on the sidelines?

KY

 

[evand]

Oh you mean like the people that shares Keen's views on SS who come on anonymously to bag people having a go at property investing?

I think what we do on SS is debate. Thats a long way from openly criticise and ridicule one single person for making public their views on the economy/property market. Its not the same thing mate.

So what if he was wrong? He might still be right, who knows.


Again you must also classify that as doomsday posters that came here to bag us? I think you'll find it's the views of the person - such as Keen in this case - that are being questioned on SS. They questioned posters here the same way they questioned Keen's diatribes and the same way someone else that got their attention would have been eg. if Robert Gotleibsen came out predicting 40% resi crash.

What? No one criticised and ridiculed posters on here for having the views they do. Again,they entered into debate - and still do - but the open criticism of Keen is (and was) getting out of hand. I see it as based on small mindedness and insecurity. Hence my last point.


Why would participating in an online community like SS lead you to staying small and on the road to loserville? The ideas and thoughts that are shared here have helped countless people on their own individual road to wealth. How would they have gone listening to courageous people like Keen in the media? I'd say many here have done better financially in the last year than Keen has who you're applauding for stating his views (unless of course he got paid for all those media interviews). Just because the media gave him a pulpit because his theories got good ratings, doesn't make his opinion anymore valid or courageous - just means he managed to grab their attention.

I dont think participating on SS will lead you to Loserville (or Palookerville ) , i never said that. But the small minded insecure criticism of him will. It reveals a small minded, narrow and insecure mindset with a possible obvious outcome for those that have it.

I'm not that insecure that i get all antsy and defensive if someone has a different view of the economy/property prices than me. Why do people get like that?

And i'm not applauding him for stating his views, i'm just upholding his right to have them without being attacked relentlessly. Again, i ask why? Where's the benefit? Or do people find it easier to pull other poeple down to their level with criticism?

 

[evand]

I meant struggling in general. Not this year or last year.

I was referring to small time investors getting on their high horse and ridiculing someone going public with a completely different view to them.

Its easy to do when you're small time and sitting anonymously behind a monitor. So easy.

nb: Obviously not everyone on this forum is small time. But i'd say the majority of the posters ridiculing Keen are.

Having said that, the majority of investors here rely on their high income to support their 'investing'. To me, that's not true investing. Another eg: To me, capitalising interest is not investing.

Hi, evand, are the PIs struggling last year better or worse off today than those who doomed and gloomed and sat on the sidelines?

KY

 

[cu@thetop]

Hi, evand, are the PIs struggling last year better or worse off today than those who doomed and gloomed and sat on the sidelines?

KY

I don't know- I sat on the side lines and I'm doing OK. Mind you I don't consider myself a D & G er- although many on the forum apparently will because I don't chant "property always doubles every seven years" or some such tripe.

A fourum should be open to a plurality of views- but we shouldn't sledge or shout down someone because we disagree with them.

I read somewhere Freud published his theory that most women who were sexually abused were assaulted by people known to them (and not strangers). So unpopular was this theory (now accepted to be true) the wailing of the establishment led him to recant it- setting back studies in the field by many years. Gotta love the mob.

 

[steveadl]

I dont think participating on SS will lead you to Loserville (or Palookerville ) , i never said that. But the small minded insecure criticism of him will. It reveals a small minded, narrow and insecure mindset with a possible obvious outcome for those that have it.

I'm not that insecure that i get all antsy and defensive if someone has a different view of the economy/property prices than me. Why do people get like that?

And i'm not applauding him for stating his views, i'm just upholding his right to have them without being attacked relentlessly. Again, i ask why?

I see where you're coming from. You're right negative attitude isn't a good thing to nurture for a successful life (in whatever respect).

I guess whilst it comes out as hostility towards Keen, I think most of it is directed at his view though some of it tends to sway more towards the former. I reckon it also has a lot to do with the level of the claims and the perceived extremeness of the view. There have been plenty of negative commentators over the last year, but it seems to be the extreme predictions (eg. 40% drop) that get special attention. Perhaps the extremeness of the claim is directly proportionate to the extremeness of the response?

I don't mind negative views, heck you and I disagree with each other a lot too but I still enjoy reading your views as it makes me think (not to mention you have actual runs on the board). On the other hand wild theories (or in recent cases outright lies) that are just not going to happen in reality, I don't have time for and say so.

 

[JIT]

nb: Obviously not everyone on this forum is small time. But i'd say the majority of the posters ridiculing Keen are.

Wow, you're a big time investor?

What does it take to be big time?

 

[evand]

And i like reading your views, among others. We all learn off each other.

If there was no spirited debate on here, we wouldn't learn a thing. We would all be nodding our heads and agreeing with each other.

I have said from the beginning that Keens 40% claims were extreme and i don't think they will happen. (that's just too apocalyptic) But i do agree with lots of his other stuff.

Spirited debate is great. Straight out put downs, ridicule and negativity of someone in the public eye (even with extreme views) are not the making of a successful person in my view.

I see where you're coming from. You're right negative attitude isn't a good thing to nurture for a successful life (in whatever respect).

I guess whilst it comes out as hostility towards Keen, I think most of it is directed at his view though some of it tends to sway more towards the former. I reckon it also has a lot to do with the level of the claims and the perceived extremeness of the view. There have been plenty of negative commentators over the last year, but it seems to be the extreme predictions (eg. 40% drop) that get special attention. Perhaps the extremeness of the claim is directly proportionate to the extremeness of the response?

I don't mind negative views, heck you and I disagree with each other a lot too but I still enjoy reading your views as it makes me think (not to mention you have actual runs on the board). On the other hand wild theories (or in recent cases outright lies) that are just not going to happen in reality, I don't have time for and say so.

 

[evand]

I never said that! And why are you getting personal?

One thing i've realised over the years is that there will always be someone below us and above us in life.

But if you really want to know the secret, send me a PM.


I was just saying so many of the criticisers are obviously small time and therefore should get off their high horse for a while and get a bit of perspective.

Wow, you're a big time investor?

What does it take to be big time?

 

[boz]

Hi, evand, are the PIs struggling last year better or worse off today than those who doomed and gloomed and sat on the sidelines?

KY

what data tell us is that property owner are more in debt now then last year, this is in real term (after you take out inflation). They might struggle less today but for sure they are not better off

 

[WinstonWolfe]

It is interesting that Keen bashers haven't slammed the RBA for not having a pig's clue that there was a GFC coming, or how it would impact Australia.

In fact, the esteemed RBA heads didn't begin lowering rates until September 08. In the mean time, they were arrogantly reassuring that all was well.

Let's face it, if anyone should have understood what was unfolding then, it was the RBA.

Is anyone hammering the RBA for coercing them into fixing rates, when the RBA was focused on raising them further because of their myopic fixation on CPI?

I would argue that the RBA did more damage then Keen ever did, by stealing money from property owners via higher rates and forcing people to fix in the face of impending crisis.

 

[steveadl]

Question for you WW - do you think what the RBA did with rates in the end was correct? ie. was dropping it as far as they did correct or did they overshoot? Did they panic because as you said they probably should have started sooner, so dropped more than necessary?

I just ask as that seem to happen a lot when facing the unknown. ie. ASX crashed way too far and has now corrected from the extreme low. RBA are already looking to increase rates so soon after smashing them down.

Or is it not fair to judge as markets were predicting doomsday and you can't tell it's been averted till after the fact, so markets and regulators are bound to overreact?

 

[devo76]

I am not up to speed as many on hear when it comes to the workings of our little planet.
But one thing that stuck out to me was when Steve keen appeared with his 40% predictions. Many of the so called gloomers jumped on it and preceeded to bombard this and many other property investing forums with his teachings. Some played fair but many didnt and all forums decended into childish arguments. I myself got caught up in it at times but now i dont really get involved as i guess i myself have grown up. And this went on month after month after month. I believe this is the reason many a jumping on him for getting it wrong. He was forced down everyones throat for a long time. This response is to be expected really.

Cheers