According to the new IPCC report about that long - I am sure property prices will suffer when catostrophic climate change kicks in!
Steve Keen-where are you now?
- Thread starter Ajax
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According to the new IPCC report about that long - I am sure property prices will suffer when catostrophic climate change kicks in!
I'll make some predictions too.
China will crash.
ALP will win government.
There will be WWIII.
Remember you heard it here first.
And Datto will be the first king of Australia!
Steve Keen, eat your friggin heart (and text books) out. Property prices are going up, up up.
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I'm told the world temp hasn't risen in the last 15 years, so we can turn down the volume on all those blokes and blokes like old Steve.
One thing that always concerned me about the world model they use is they don't have enough information about sea temperatures to plug into the model.
Many unusual weather events are driven by sea surface temperatures and ocean currents.
They say the deep sea oceans have absorbed the warming of our planet.
Told by who? Alan Jones?
What do you think would drive sea surface temperatures?
One eyed optimism is a dangerous perspective to have - just sayin. Anyone who thinks property prices couldn't crash in a place like Australia is off their chops. Keen may have been wrong in respect of timing but it's still a plausible proposition.
As I recall there were two bets, one was that prices would be lower in 12 months from the date of bet in 2008, he lost and did the walk. The other was over a period of 10-15 years. What were the particulars of the 5 year bet if any?
He's a bit too silly for me to bother with.
Try Andrew Bolt.
He rolls out that stat almost every week...loves to give it to Tim Flannery in particular. Remember him? He said the dams would never be full again.
And AB is more than happy for anyone to go on his program and debate it (the temp not rising and other gems)...no one will.
Why is that?
Prices did crash in Melb in the early '90's when the interest rates hit 18%.
That's about the only time they ever have to my knowledge, and it was mostly yer higher end speculative purchases if I remember correctly....folk having to offload the overpriced panic purchase of the previous boom because they couldn't afford the IR.
I think the average house in Averageville was largely unaffected to any degree.
Yes, they could crash again....but my feeling is a slow deflation and/or stagnation until wages catch up again.
That hurt.
He got it absolutely wrong, he predicted Oz prop to fall as much as 40%, guess what Melb was rising during GFC while he was ranting, he never saw this coming, economists never get it right.
I am of the persuasion we are heading for a period as described ^^^^^ once things settle down.
But hey what would I know
Incorrect, I was investing in Melb during the GFC purchased 5 properties and put together DA for 8 unit site, the market was booming, it lasted for 18 months, started in the inner city and then the ripple effect. I will certainly not forget this time.
As far as Gold coast, falling. Well Keen predicted Australia to fall back 40-50%, he got it wrong, it did not happen. You either get it right or you get it wrong, really, Gold Coast is not all of Australia.
For the record, Keen actually stated that he "got it wrong", as I said he is an economist.
MTR
hope they have it right because big decisions are being made on the back of their forecasts:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/19130439/rising-sea-levels-put-400m-project-in-doubt/
When were you buying in melb? My friends was trying to sell a house about 1.5-2 years ago and had no success. I think clearance rates were about 50-60% then. There's lots of markets within markets etc so I'm not sure where keen was predicting when he said that, maybe in toorak or karlgoolie.
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