Steve Keen's apartment +25% since he sold

OK. The general area has risen 25% in 3 years. (reportedly) That's < 8% pa. He would have barely broken even on any borrowings and any cash out would have doubled if invested in resource stocks. (after Mar '08)

Meantime he is not vulnerable to "shock" and prolly renting at a price which would have allowed increased investments elsewhere. I reckon he has done OK. :D Certainly not bad enough to be made a laughing stock by a big-mouth RE agent.
 
Either way, I think it's extremely bad form and unprofessional by John Mcgrath to raise and critise a transaction made by his company in a personal blog.

Intuitively plausible, but on reflection I'd have to absolutely disagree, Bluestorm.

Consider -

1. McGrath's personal blog is not private communication by a private figure about private matters, so there is no invasion of privacy involved here, and every propriety in McGrath using his blog to debate commentators' public sentiments on the RE market

2. McGrath has a legitimate business interest in contributing his own sentiments to the debate and responding critically to negative RE sentiments, and could even on the basis of his high public profile be said to have a responsibility to do so in the interests of his industry colleagues

3. His responsibility to act in Steve Keen's best financial interests ended with the completion of that sales transaction (and hence McGrath ceasing to be his agent, or at least certain of his staff members ceasing to act as such)

4. The 'impending market crash' rationale for the sale of Keen's property was widely publicised by Keen, not by McGrath

5. It was never incumbent upon McGrath to accept the legitimacy of that rationale in accepting Keen's commission to act as his agent

6. Keen himself has a self-made high public profile almost entirely due to his very public, very negative commentary on RE market prospects

McGrath did not act 'in bad faith' by accepting the agency commission in the first place despite not accepting Keen's rationale for selling. He has not subsequently betrayed any private information or confidence invested in him by Steve Keen. And he does most certainly have a legitimate interest as a major market player in publicising his reflections on market sentiment, even those expressed by a former client.

It would be entirely different if McGrath had publicly commented on a privately-expressed selling rationale by a non-public individual, i.e. "Joe Unknown told me he was selling because he feared a market correct. What a doofus!", suddenly launching poor unasked Joe into the public spotlight , but that didn't happen here.

So, as I see it, the complaint against McGrath here betrays the application of a double standard. It is acceptable for Keen to publicise his rationale for selling his private residence for his own interests, but it is unacceptable for McGrath to publically reflect on the prudence of that very public decision in hindsight because it relates among other things to Steve Keen's private interests.

It would be a kindness to let Steve Keen have his cake and eat it too, I know, but I don't know that it's John McGrath's responsibilty to serve it for him.
 
OK. The general area has risen 25% in 3 years. (reportedly) That's < 8% pa. He would have barely broken even on any borrowings and any cash out would have doubled if invested in resource stocks. (after Mar '08)

Meantime he is not vulnerable to "shock" and prolly renting at a price which would have allowed increased investments elsewhere. I reckon he has done OK. :D Certainly not bad enough to be made a laughing stock by a big-mouth RE agent.

Yes, but he could have done much better than resource stocks if he'd invested the lot on Number 3 on Race 5 at Randwick on the 9th, too. But getting back to the point . . . . oh! What was it again?
 
Mate, what are you on about? It's bad form to talk negatively about someone you've done business with privately, let alone publicly.

Is your verbosity designed to impress?

Intuitively plausible, but on reflection I'd have to absolutely disagree, Bluestorm.

Consider -

1. McGrath's personal blog is not private communication by a private figure about private matters, so there is no invasion of privacy involved here, and every propriety in McGrath using his blog to debate commentators' public sentiments on the RE market

2. McGrath has a legitimate business interest in contributing his own sentiments to the debate and responding critically to negative RE sentiments, and could even on the basis of his high public profile be said to have a responsibility to do so in the interests of his industry colleagues

3. His responsibility to act in Steve Keen's best financial interests ended with the completion of that sales transaction (and hence McGrath ceasing to be his agent, or at least certain of his staff members ceasing to act as such)

4. The 'impending market crash' rationale for the sale of Keen's property was widely publicised by Keen, not by McGrath

5. It was never incumbent upon McGrath to accept the legitimacy of that rationale in accepting Keen's commission to act as his agent

6. Keen himself has a self-made high public profile almost entirely due to his very public, very negative commentary on RE market prospects

McGrath did not act 'in bad faith' by accepting the agency commission in the first place despite not accepting Keen's rationale for selling. He has not subsequently betrayed any private information or confidence invested in him by Steve Keen. And he does most certainly have a legitimate interest as a major market player in publicising his reflections on market sentiment, even those expressed by a former client.

It would be entirely different if McGrath had publicly commented on a privately-expressed selling rationale by a non-public individual, i.e. "Joe Unknown told me he was selling because he feared a market correct. What a doofus!", suddenly launching poor unasked Joe into the public spotlight , but that didn't happen here.

So, as I see it, the complaint against McGrath here betrays the application of a double standard. It is acceptable for Keen to publicise his rationale for selling his private residence for his own interests, but it is unacceptable for McGrath to publically reflect on the prudence of that very public decision in hindsight because it relates among other things to Steve Keen's private interests.

It would be a kindness to let Steve Keen have his cake and eat it too, I know, but I don't know that it's John McGrath's responsibilty to serve it for him.
 
You're not replying to me are you Belbo? Having you on ignore means I don't have the pleasure of reading either your insights OR your abuse. LOL
 
In Oct '08 the AllOrds was around 2650. Today it is 4750. Selling a property then and investing the proceeds on the ASX would have been a good call. Has anyone had the courtesy of asking Mr Keen how his investments have gone?

Let's play "Spot the goose"!!!!!!
 
Intuitively plausible, but on reflection I'd have to absolutely disagree, Bluestorm.

Consider -

1. McGrath's personal blog is not private communication by a private figure about private matters, so there is no invasion of privacy involved here, and every propriety in McGrath using his blog to debate commentators' public sentiments on the RE market

McGraph for one would have no idea what Keen ended up doing with his money. Maybe it was a wise investment decision. Also the fact is that the correction has only been delayed due to government intervention. There will still be a correction (including inflation of 30-40%).

John McGrath - I personally believe there won’t be a major property correction. In effect, I think there is a 95% chance we will see double digit growth in prime residential markets around Australia over the next 12-18 months.

When a bridge collapses, the designers are held accountable, same with doctors, etc. I think it's time that all these property spruikers are held legally accountable for the information they put out there. If prices don't go up double digit in the next 12-18mth, I expect that Mcgrath will be stripped of his licence for gross misinformation.
On the ground prices are starting to correct and property markets are really starting to slow, and this trend will only continue into 2012 and to the end of 2012. I find Mcgraths approach completely unprofessional, and a sign of an even increasingly desperate property industry to keep up the facade of "good times" in property despite signs to the contrary.
 
The first home buyers grant and boost was only one part of the stimulus. It was a multi faceted stimulus that affected the whole property market, starting with FHB's. (as it was designed to do)

Yes, as we keep hearing, if it weren't for the entire plethora of profligate government incentives distributed throughout the GFC for cynical self-serving party-political advantage the real estate market would have already corrected substantially, as it will surely do most imminently.

And proponents of this hard news have no motive other than the altrusitic intent of informing others on this property forum to wait, like themselves, for the opportunity to benefit their own self interests enormously when the real carnage soon erupts. The bargain property-buying opportunities will be glorious!

In the meantime though, utilise other investment markets, like stocks, currency and metal futures, to quickly multiply your liquid capital assets in readiness to pounce when property market prices really collapse.

Above all, remain firm in your conviction that while you are disseminating this advice you are motivated strictly by legitimate self interest alone, and not by any consideration for an alleged public interest in a major housing price reduction across this country. That would be a socialistic objective, but you're a champion only of free markets, as your repeated incisive criticism of profligate government housing incentives shows.

If you find you have to constantly draw on the work of avowedly leftist economists like Steve, Leith and Saul to expose the truth that's fine, because they're economists, and so only deal in facts that have no inherent bias themselves. Reporting their conclusions doesn't make you a leftist either, because you're only motivated in doing this out of personal capitalistic self interest.

Whatever you do, keep repeating to yourself and others the mantra: You do not, and have never intended to, contribute to a thoroughly leftist political campaign to shift public opinion in favour of intentionally lowering the price of housing in this country. If the government doesn't intervene in markets during major economic upheavals, and that results in massive housing price falls, that's a politically irrelevant by-product of the free markets you champion exclusively for reason of your own self interest.

Remember, you do not envy successful property investors!
 
Everyone has gone insane. Keen sold his apartment to show he puts his money were his mouth given he was predicting a 40% fall in prices.

He was wrong, very very very very very very very wrong. Anyone trying to find a silver lining or excuse is just insane, evand put your hand up now for some therapy.

He put the property for auction and didnt sell... he HELD OUT!! for what??? oh umm a higher price maybe?. This was the first idiotic backflip he did given how can you hold out for a better price at the same time arguing we are in a crash to end all crashes.

Alas he waited and sold and since then the property market did what?

clap clap, enjoy your pension.
 
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Everyone has gone insane. Keen sold his apartment to show he puts his money were his mouth given he was predicting a 40% fall in prices.
He was wrong, very very very very very very very wrong. Anyone trying to find a silver lining or excuse is just insane, evand put your hand up now for some therapy.

Tcocaro

I think Keen got the timing wrong and its probably fair enough as governments and central banks keep moving the goal posts. I think if Europe goes belly up, Keen could get it right but it would be more out of luck than good judgement.

You'd have to agree though that our property prices are way too high so something has to give and its just a matter of time before this happens.
I say this because, I'm in the market to buy a few IP's and I don't like what I see.
So far I've looked at Sydney (all over), some regional areas, parts of Brisbane & Melbourne and my money isn't buying much. My latest theory is that we're all insane to be investing at this stage of the property cycle.

Last night I also looked at shares and they didn't look very attractive either.
I've got a bad feelling about the whole thing.
Perhaps I need some of that therapy too....:D
 
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Last night I also looked at shares and they didn't look very attractive either.

No argument from me. I've spent more time studying stock market form than most here and I'm still (nervously) invested but my BIL asked about shares recently and I said to forget it.

Serious investors should be looking towards return OF capital more than return ON capital. It is worthwhile avoiding draw-down too but I'm an outlier here so maybe I should crawl back under my rock.
 
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Wasn't his 40% fall over a long time period. Like 10 years. So, he isn't wrong yet.

His property was passed in at auction and sold by private treaty after.

So, your post is wrong on at least 2 counts.



Everyone has gone insane. Keen sold his apartment to show he puts his money were his mouth given he was predicting a 40% fall in prices.

He was wrong, very very very very very very very wrong. Anyone trying to find a silver lining or excuse is just insane, evand put your hand up now for some therapy.

He put the property for auction and didnt sell... he HELD OUT!! for what??? oh umm a higher price maybe?. This was the first idiotic backflip he did given how can you hold out for a better price at the same time arguing we are in a crash to end all crashes.

Alas he waited and sold and since then the property market did what?

clap clap, enjoy your pension.
 
What worries me a bit is Mcgrath is starting to sound a bit desperate in the media lately, and this sort of emotive claptrap does not help.

You could have had money sitting on term deposit earning more than this chap "apparently" lost.

Why is Mcgrath et al squeaking so loudly in the press and on the telly recently, thats what we should be asking ourselves, not seeking some kind of confirmation bias from a vested interest.

Without further intervention, which may be on the way, (especially through encouraging cashed up Chinese), Mr or Dr Keen or whatever may not have got off at the peak, (who does), but still could be proved right.

I gather Triguboff and other major contributors to party funds are putting not inconsiderable pressure on, re offloading units at prices they deem right, and I somehow doubt they will be ignored.
 
Wasn't his 40% fall over a long time period. Like 10 years. So, he isn't wrong yet.

His property was passed in at auction and sold by private treaty after.

So, your post is wrong on at least 2 counts.

Could even be 20 years right ? :rolleyes:

I guess even a broken clock is right twice a day
 
Could even be 20 years right ? :rolleyes:

I guess even a broken clock is right twice a day

"The nasty things that you think are coming always take longer to arrive than you think they will, but once they get here, they make up for their tardiness by being worse than you thought they'd be."
-Richard Maybury
 
Oh evand you are by far one of the more deluded posters here..

He decideds if the property is passed in so he "held out" for a better price. Thanks for rephrasing what I said. How can you not see how stupid this is, he thinks prices are crashing but he doesn't take the highest bid in an auction? He prefers to negotiate weeks later?

Lol what point is there of predicting anything if its with the proviso it will occur "sometime in the future" what a clown his stupidity matched only by his followers.

Plus for his 40 percent drop to eventuate prices will now have to drop by about 60 percent, what a clown.

Wasn't his 40% fall over a long time period. Like 10 years. So, he isn't wrong yet.

His property was passed in at auction and sold by private treaty after.

So, your post is wrong on at least 2 counts.
 
Kudos to you

Oh evand you are by far one of the more deluded posters here..

He decideds if the property is passed in so he "held out" for a better price. Thanks for rephrasing what I said. How can you not see how stupid this is, he thinks prices are crashing but he doesn't take the highest bid in an auction? He prefers to negotiate weeks later?

Lol what point is there of predicting anything if its with the proviso it will occur "sometime in the future" what a clown his stupidity matched only by his followers.

Plus for his 40 percent drop to eventuate prices will now have to drop by about 60 percent, what a clown.
 
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