Steve Keen's apartment +25% since he sold

[Belbo]

Belbo, I believe if a client trusts your business with a transaction and pays the agreed fee you have a duty of loyalty and respect not to discuss that transaction in public especially if mocking that person. He didn't name him but he might as well have. I wouldn't do it and would hate it done to me.

There's a flaw in your logic, lads (yep sorry, you too Player).

Not only did McGrath not need to name the person, he did not even need to name the transaction.

Had he simply criticised Keen's argument, wouldn't he have implicitly betrayed Keen's 'client-trust' just as transparently as 'the actual person' was implied? (i.e. would any interested reader have missed that, seriously?)

So, by your logic, McGrath should have forevermore remained silent on Keen's publicity-stunting undermining of confidence in McGrath's own homeground property market?

If so, then please tell me, when does the McGrath duty to Keen stop and his duty to the rest of his clientele recommence, exactly?

According to your line of reasoning, never.

No, you'll have to do a lot better than that, and your appeal to heartstrings in the end -

I wouldn't do it and would hate it done to me

- shows me that you actually know you do.

That is, unless you genuinely believe that McGrath should be permanently reduced by having once acted for Keen to the level of 'an anonomous source' commentator on Keen's crypto-Marxist announcements. Then, of course, I'll accept your point of view with the same tolerance I share for any religious defence against the hardships of reality.

 

[Belbo]

That's WRONG and you know it. The ASX has done well since Oct '08, when Keen sold his unit, which is the time period being discussed on this thread.

3,500 to 4,750 isn't too shabby.

Just wonder how much of the your stock portfolio was left after the carnage of Aug-Sep 08? And care to tell us how tell just how well it did today?

 

[Ed Barton]

You keep going out of your way to prove my point that anecdotal evidence is useless... because its my word against yours... frustrating isnt it maybe next time you will refer to publicly available information, stats etc rather than your own experiences to justify your reasonings but I doubt you will your pretty fixed in your ways.

Keen did OK? lets see, lets recap, Keen argued a collapse in the property market (40% falls) sold his house on these claims but what transpired prices in his area rose by 25%, no collapse occured and you feel this is "OK". You say I am one eyed but you my friend have had both your eyes gouged out and ears plugged if you think this is an "OK" outcome.

anecdotal evidence is not useless, merely a weak form of evidence. the term is often misunderstood. one persons experiences (unless they are transacting a large number of properties) is not anecdotal evidence. anecdotal evidence is gathering the experiences of a number of people.

if 10 people on the ground in Mandurah say (honestly) prices have dropped in the last few years, that's reasonable evidence they have. me jumping on here and saying i sold one property in Mandurah for double what i paid for it a couple of years ago is not anecdotal evidence.

 

[tcocaro]

Here are some dictionary definitions of anecdotal which pretty much say its "useless";

Based on casual observations or indications rather than rigorous or scientific analysis

containing or consisting exclusively of anecdotes rather than connected discourse or research conducted under controlled conditions

(of an account) Not necessarily true or reliable, because based on personal accounts rather than facts or research.

---

If the dictionary definitions isnt enough for you to agree anecdotal evidence is useless then simply refer to your own post. You say and I quote "if 10 people on the ground in Mandurah say (honestly) prices have dropped in the last few years, that's reasonable evidence they have" - this line really made me laugh for two reasons.

#1, you mention the word "honestly", how exactly do you determine this? You look deep in their eyes when they tell you? The sound of their voice?

#2 you mention 10 people. You are now applying a more scientific approach and turning anecdotal data into statistical data. When a research company calls 1 person its anecdotal rubbish but if they call 1000 they can start using the data more seriously and compiling stats... basically in your own response and example you agree a sample size of 1 is useless and hence use 10.

Your post highlights the 2 key points that make anecdotal evidence "useless" i.e. its non-verified (un-trustworthy) data and a sample size of just 1 person is close to pointless.

Ill give you a good example of "usless" anecdotal data to make my point clear...

"My grandfather smoked 2 packets a day since he was 12 and lived till 95 years old"

is no different to

"I just sold my house yesterday for $50,000 more than I bought it just 3 months ago"

thanks to stats and "reliable" data we know smoking causes cancer, and most people today in the property market wouldnt have seen a jump in prices over the last 3 months however this doesnt mean a heavy smoker wont live till 95 nor does it mean someone in Australia didnt make a good profit in property over the last 3 months...

so i repeat anecdotal evidence is useless....

anecdotal evidence is not useless, merely a weak form of evidence. the term is often misunderstood. one persons experiences (unless they are transacting a large number of properties) is not anecdotal evidence. anecdotal evidence is gathering the experiences of a number of people.

if 10 people on the ground in Mandurah say (honestly) prices have dropped in the last few years, that's reasonable evidence they have. me jumping on here and saying i sold one property in Mandurah for double what i paid for it a couple of years ago is not anecdotal evidence.

 

[Belbo]

That's right. Anecdotal refers to anecdotes. Little stories, not data. Can't imagine why anyone would even type a post on it. Doh!