Steve Keen's apartment +25% since he sold

[MrCrumbpacker]

Oh evand you are by far one of the more deluded posters here..

In Evand's defence I would have to say that in my opinion he is one of the least deluded posters here, never feeling the need to continuously 'talk his own book'.

However, anyone in denial that there are serious problems afoot re property recently, be it in Sydney or elsewhere is seriously deluded.

Things appear to be getting worse, and although they are by no means terrible yet, we could be at the start of a nasty downturn, and the worst thing to do would be ignore it / deny it, in fact the more it is brought up, the more likely steps can be taken to deal with things.

 

[Propertunity]

Again, we are comparing your endless graphs

I know it must be frustrating to keep holding a view that is direct conflict with the facts ....but I make no apologies for that.

...and dodgy statistics

I think the land titles office holds reasonable evidence of sales price - which is where the stats & graphs came from.

...to whats happening on the ground....

I am currently on the ground looking in Paddo & Surry Hills - so I feel somewhat qualified to comment.

You of course are entitled to hold to whatever views you want. I prefer to deal with the facts, and the facts are that there are some properties being passed in, the top end of the prestige market softening a bit, but the bottom to middle priced areas of the market are still showing high demand and price growth. But you won't see that from sitting on the sidelines, reading the press, or chatting with your friends of the same mind as your good self

 

[Belbo]

Anything really interesting come up in your travels through Paddo and Surry Hills, Pro? (Just curious. Really!)

 

[Propertunity]

Anything really interesting come up in your travels through Paddo and Surry Hills, Pro? (Just curious. Really!)

Please define "interesting"

There's this one I was bidding for yesterday but went past what I thought was good value: http://www.domain.com.au/Property/For-Sale/House/NSW/Paddington/?adid=2008975009
It sold for $1.156M

 

[Belbo]

Paddo (just, admittedly) for under $1.2M? You tightwad!

 

[BV]

Please define "interesting"

There's this one I was bidding for yesterday but went past what I thought was good value: http://www.domain.com.au/Property/For-Sale/House/NSW/Paddington/?adid=2008975009
It sold for $1.156M

Allan

I know that they don't make any more of those
but 1.2Million $????

 

[china]

john mcgrath

john mcgrath is a real estate legend. No one can get to be a leader in their field without marketing their own self interests. So we need to take what he says on real estate with a strong grain of salt.

 

[Bigtone]

I Think you're wrong here. No one could have predicted the jump in growth caused by the GFC stimulus, low rates, FHGB, stamp duty discounts etc. Its easy to see it now, but not before the fact.

we will have to agree to disagree, i'm no professor and i have a below average iq, however i bought 15 properties in that period and told everyone i knew it is 'a once in a generation opportunity'. I know many people others who predictated and changed their lives completely by acting on that opportunity.

 

[tcocaro]

talk his own book? Are you making the implication that I do?

Do you honestly think that I beleive the readership of my posts on this forum is that great as to alter the real estate enough to benefit anyone of my developments none of which I ever ever ever ever mention on here? If so please stick your implied insult up were the sun dont shine buddy this is a property forum heaven forbid if some of the members on here actually invest in property rather than armchair experts.

comments like "serious problems afoot" etc with absolutely no specific reference to data\stats etc fall on deaf ears. The "vibe" that something wrong doesnt cut it for me, it didnt during the GFC and it doesnt now.

Unfortunately whenever any of these posts are challenged the response is usually "we will see" which is tiresome.

The issue is that falls of 3-5% are normal\expected nothing to fear but the gloomers perpetually think any fall is the tip of the iceberg the equivalent is a 3-5% rise being evidence of the start of a new boom. Both comments are as dumb as one another.

In Evand's defence I would have to say that in my opinion he is one of the least deluded posters here, never feeling the need to continuously 'talk his own book'.

However, anyone in denial that there are serious problems afoot re property recently, be it in Sydney or elsewhere is seriously deluded.

Things appear to be getting worse, and although they are by no means terrible yet, we could be at the start of a nasty downturn, and the worst thing to do would be ignore it / deny it, in fact the more it is brought up, the more likely steps can be taken to deal with things.

 

[evand]

Sorry mate, you're wrong and your personal bias is showing big time. You are losing sight of the facts. And the facts are that anyone whose property is passed in doesn't have to accept a price lower than what they (or the agent) deem ok. Why does he have to be any different?

His property passed in, didn't reach reserve and he negotiated a higher offer. If you want to put some personal emotional bias on that, thats your right.

Oh evand you are by far one of the more deluded posters here..

He decideds if the property is passed in so he "held out" for a better price. Thanks for rephrasing what I said. How can you not see how stupid this is, he thinks prices are crashing but he doesn't take the highest bid in an auction? He prefers to negotiate weeks later?

Lol what point is there of predicting anything if its with the proviso it will occur "sometime in the future" what a clown his stupidity matched only by his followers.

Plus for his 40 percent drop to eventuate prices will now have to drop by about 60 percent, what a clown.

 

[evand]

Spending a couple of hours in a suburb is not what i call 'being on the ground' I meant living in the suburb.

How can you be 'on the ground' in 100 suburbs that you research. You must be good.

And the data is dodgy, Ii saw a few graphs of yours recently that were up to May or April 2011. How can that be the case when Land Titles dont get sales results until 6 weeks - 3 months after the sale?

Also with steeply rising price curves and steeply falling volume curves. At the same time!

Not to mention the voluntarily supplied results provided by the RE's and Real Estate Institutes. What a crock that is.

The data is dodgy so your graphs are dodgy.

I know it must be frustrating to keep holding a view that is direct conflict with the facts ....but I make no apologies for that.

I think the land titles office holds reasonable evidence of sales price - which is where the stats & graphs came from.

I am currently on the ground looking in Paddo & Surry Hills - so I feel somewhat qualified to comment.

You of course are entitled to hold to whatever views you want. I prefer to deal with the facts, and the facts are that there are some properties being passed in, the top end of the prestige market softening a bit, but the bottom to middle priced areas of the market are still showing high demand and price growth. But you won't see that from sitting on the sidelines, reading the press, or chatting with your friends of the same mind as your good self

 

[bluestorm]

Not to mention the voluntarily supplied results provided by the RE's and Real Estate Institutes. What a crock that is.

The data is dodgy so your graphs are dodgy.

Have to agree. It's widely know that falling clearance rates, a lot of agents leave out passed in properties in their figures to make them look slightly better.
Garbage In, Garbage Out.
Does anyone believe crime figures, or hospital waiting lists. Property stats are also massaged, yet somehow the property spruikers take the property stats as gospel.

 

[devank]

This thread has been very interesting. It is a great way for a beginner like me to learn without asking any questions

Naturally, I would like to believe the +ve comments. Unfortunately, most +ve comments come from property based business personals and big time property investors! Having said that they are the ones really 'being on the ground'! well... back to square one

 

[evand]

Not only that, but a lot of auctions are passed in on a vendor/agent bid. Meaning they appear in the press as passed in higher $ than the public's highest bid. The whole thing is a joke.

And its in the interests of property spruikers/property related business owners etc to not really take these stats as gospel (im sure they dont believe the stats themselves). But its in their interest to promote them when they re positive and not when they're negative.

eg: When was the last time you saw a negative looking graph from propertunity or any other property related service provider, whether on the forum or off?

That in itself limits their credibility.

Have to agree. It's widely know that falling clearance rates, a lot of agents leave out passed in properties in their figures to make them look slightly better.
Garbage In, Garbage Out.
Does anyone believe crime figures, or hospital waiting lists. Property stats are also massaged, yet somehow the property spruikers take the property stats as gospel.

 

[Propertunity]

How can you be 'on the ground' in 100 suburbs that you research. You must be good.

I don't know where you are getting "100 suburbs" from?

And the data is dodgy, Ii saw a few graphs of yours recently that were up to May or April 2011. How can that be the case when Land Titles dont get sales results until 6 weeks - 3 months after the sale?

Look evand, if I supply sales data that only has land titles info in it, which I did in this instance, then the data cannot be dodgy. However, you will then say that even though the data shows a rising market, in a particular suburb, that the data is 3 months out of date, and you and your friends are sure the market is falling.

Then if I supply more up to date sales data (and let's be reasonable here, it is only the sales value reported by the selling agent on an unconditional exchange of contracts, not auction clearance rates), and it still confirms a rising market in the suburb, then you claim the data is dodgy. You have all your bases covered

Also with steeply rising price curves and steeply falling volume curves. At the same time!

What's the probem here? You can have rising prices on low volume. It can mean any number of things. e.g. say that last year they sold 80 x $500K units, therefore the median is $500K and this Qtr they sold 3 x $600K units so the stats show a rising price on low(er) volume. As with anything, you always have to look more into it to see the possible reasons.

That does not mean the data is dodgy. It has nothing to do with auction clearance rates, which is a problem, I'll grant you that much.

 

[tcocaro]

lol. I think the property market is crashing yet I hold out for a "higher" price.. lol.

You dont see the contradiction in views? You dont see the stupidity in claiming a crash yet holding out for a higher price?

The cherry on top is the fact prices then proceeded to rise a further 25% after he sold, what skilled investor this guy is! sells low due to fear and media speculation what a damn fish.

Despite all of this he maintains a 40% drop (how on earth cant this figure change)

How can it be 40% then and after a 25% rise still 40% now? How? How????? even based on his own idiotic logic? How can it not be 65% or some other figure this is just retarded.

If you call this personal bias thats your choice I call it damn obvious stupidity on part of Keen and those who follow him.

Sorry mate, you're wrong and your personal bias is showing big time. You are losing sight of the facts. And the facts are that anyone whose property is passed in doesn't have to accept a price lower than what they (or the agent) deem ok. Why does he have to be any different?

His property passed in, didn't reach reserve and he negotiated a higher offer. If you want to put some personal emotional bias on that, thats your right.

 

[MrCrumbpacker]

talk his own book? Are you making the implication that I do?

Do you honestly think that I beleive the readership of my posts on this forum is that great as to alter the real estate enough to benefit anyone of my developments none of which I ever ever ever ever mention on here? If so please stick your implied insult up were the sun dont shine buddy this is a property forum heaven forbid if some of the members on here actually invest in property rather than armchair experts.

.

Actually no, I think you plucked an insult from nowhere there, I certainly was not talking about or referencing you in the negative, but rather referring to Evand (in the positive).

I have not read enough of your posts to make any such accusations, my apologies if I gave the wrong impression.

I realise that people are getting rather fractious re property at the moment, and am not here to cause any upset, merely examine the facts.

Where the property market goes will have an effect on all of us, particularly investors and business owners.

 

[evand]

True, you can create rising prices on falling volume. The problem is that when you see steeply rising prices (as in your graphs) and steeply falling volume at the same time. It renders the reliability and credibility of the graphs almost entirely.

The smaller samples will invalidate the rising prices. And the smaller the sample size the less reliable the statistics and therefore the graph.

This is a separate problem to basing the graphs on dodgy data in the first place and actually compounds the problem.

As for your eg: It proves my point. How can statistics be formed on 3 sales, let alone a graph from those statistics. I realise its only an example but it reinforces me point above.

What's the probem here? You can have rising prices on low volume. It can mean any number of things. e.g. say that last year they sold 80 x $500K units, therefore the median is $500K and this Qtr they sold 3 x $600K units so the stats show a rising price on low(er) volume. As with anything, you always have to look more into it to see the possible reasons.

That does not mean the data is dodgy. It has nothing to do with auction clearance rates, which is a problem, I'll grant you that much.

 

[tcocaro]

Sorry mate. I retract (if i can) the tone of that post then.

I just go out of my way to not talk about my developments (which personally I think is at the forums loss) however I have no choice because I will simply be attacked as being bias. Which I find absurd given this is a property forum.

Again please accept my apology as I know I come across strong sometimes.

Actually no, I think you plucked an insult from nowhere there, I certainly was not talking about or referencing you in the negative, but rather referring to Evand (in the positive).

I have not read enough of your posts to make any such accusations, my apologies if I gave the wrong impression.

I realise that people are getting rather fractious re property at the moment, and am not here to cause any upset, merely examine the facts.

Where the property market goes will have an effect on all of us, particularly investors and business owners.

 

[MrCrumbpacker]

Sorry mate. I retract (if i can) the tone of that post then.

Cool no probs