Steve Keen's apartment +25% since he sold

InnerWestie said:
I am no Keen fan, but I agree the 'name and shame' thing is poor form considering he was their client...
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I keep seeing people asserting this was 'poor form', but no-one's explaining it!

Alright, you're entitled to your opinion, I have no problem with that. But without depth of reasoning it's just seems to me to as shallow as it is callow.

Keen named himself. Keen shamed himself! (McGrath by the way didn't even name him personally on his blog, not that that really matters, of course.)

McGrath was however pointing out a matter of relevance to public interest (house prices are doing just fine, in his assessment) by contrast to the public record of the public speaking of a very publicity-seeking economist saying 'house prices will collapse 40%'.

Do you really think Keen would expect himself McGrath to be bound to silence as regards the wisdom of Keen's self-aggrandising pronouncements? I don't think even Keen himself would be so self-indulgent or self-deluded.

So, what poor form exactly? And why precisely?

NB: Nothing personal InnerWestie, you simply repeated a sentiment expressed by a number of others here who I equally invite to respond rationally.
 
tcocaro said:
You keep going out of your way to prove my point that anecdotal evidence is useless... because its my word against yours... frustrating isnt it maybe next time you will refer to publicly available information, stats etc rather than your own experiences to justify your reasonings but I doubt you will your pretty fixed in your ways.
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Wow talk about a hypocrite given you used your own experiences vs my table based on ABS statistics in this thread:

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=71625

Not very consistent tcocaro. Seems you'll say and twist anything to try and 'win' a thread.

Poor form.
 
The thread is about Keen, his views, statements, predictions. The fact that the very suburb he sold out off went up 25% virtually from the point of time he sold is just amusing...

If it was a discussion about the market I wouldnt refer to one suburb but I suspect you know this and were just trying to find unsuccefully for a clever quip to post in this thread..

StefanA said:
I'd say referring to one suburb or one property in one suburb, as representative of all prime real estate, is a tad anecdotal.

RP Data Rismark has luxury suburbs tanking more than cap city medians.

http://rpdata.com/press_releases/luxury_suburbs_drag_down_aussie_housing_market.html
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Huh???
U mean the comment I wrote, 200+ dwellings I have built? Granted perhaps I shouldnt have used that as an example despite there being a small difference between 200 units and what perhaps you have invested\built particularly given your forte isnt even property?

It is beyond well known fact that units have shrunk in size. UIDA, Oliver Hume have both recently posted research proving this just research it for yourself on google as this tit-for-tat with you has well and trully bored me. The McMansions which I can only suspect caused the ABS stats for house size (I was speaking units anyways) to go up are now a thing of the past, just look at ANY new land subdivision and tell me what you notice... are blocks getting bigger or smaller? Sigh...

Now I admit I shouldnt have posted that and despite being a developer, built of 200+ dwellings still such comments are anecdotal. Are you even capable of admiting mistakes? Highly doubt it.. ill keep on reminding you of your stance of seeing 30% drop in the price of silver as not a crash... not poor form... dreadful form..



hobo-jo said:
Wow talk about a hypocrite given you used your own experiences vs my table based on ABS statistics in this thread:

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=71625

Not very consistent tcocaro. Seems you'll say and twist anything to try and 'win' a thread.

Poor form.
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tcocaro said:
The thread is about Keen, his views, statements, predictions. The fact that the very suburb he sold out off went up 25% virtually from the point of time he sold is just amusing...
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And my point is that you would need to be a pretty crappy investor to get excited about 25% cumulative over 3 years during a recovery phase. You use this specific location to demonstrate your point but refuse to accept the possibility that any other specific investment is valid.

Using any broad metric, shares have outperformed property since Oct '08.

Do not interpret my retiring from this debate as an acceptance of defeat. It is an acceptance of diversity, where the twain shall never meet.
 
tcocaro said:
Are you even capable of admiting mistakes?
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You're doing a good job of trying to talk your way around your very own. Great entertainment. Every post of yours adds to the level of hypocrisy.

Who cares if units are getting smaller. Who cares if land is getting smaller. Neither is proof that on the average there are fewer bedrooms per dwelling unit in new developments.

Fact: You used anecdotal evidence against statistical fact and then ridiculed someone else for the same.

You're quite the spin doctor, Ill give you that.
 
Wow I admit I was wrong referring to my own experiences (anecdotal evidence) and you keep pushing the issue?!?!? lets compare my mistake to yours which was to invent your own way of interpreting housing shortage supported by absolutely no-one and I am the deluded one?

The size of units are shrinking both in terms of bedrooms and size, the rapid rise in house size\bedrooms was during the 80/90 especially the 90s this trend has clearly STOPPED. Simply look at ANY apartment building being built or marketed and tell me if 3 bedroom units make up the majority of units within the complex!

I repeat for the benefit of the hard of hearing.. I was referring to units all along but given you dont really care about specificity you keep harping on about houses when attacking me.

Your self delusion, inability to admit to any mistake (30% drop in silver is a CRASH - deal with it), need to prove yourself right despite the evidence and interest in petty arguments is laughable.

Regardless I will yield and look at houses despite its not my forte and given it seems you have given up arguing your own interpretation of the housing shortage and any other point of substance. Instead you have chosen to reduced this argument down to a petty debate of whether or not number of bedrooms have increased for houses and its impact on your flawed model for determining the housing shortage.

"Since 2008, however, there has been a slight decline in the size of houses" source: ABS

Even this category of dwelling has recently started to "decline" in size. Given you have harped on so much about ABS stats and your superb understanding of them I guess you can now fall on your sword and admit your wrong? - You wont, you will spin some irrelevant dribble instead no doubt. The above line was taken from the ABS must really burn when the facts conspire against you.

Further more houses as a percentage of total dwelling has been on the decline especially here in Sydney so its impact on your flawed model for interpreting housing shortage (wow have you strayed from the topic) should be weighted but I am sure you have given your a mathematical genius.

Units (what I was talking about);

Just read a few of these as I am not going to scan and attach the myriad of reports I get from the associations I am a part which state unit sizes are getting smaller but hopefully putting the below links will suffice (i doubt it, nothing will end your pettiness)

http://www.findinvestmentproperty.com.au/ka-smaller-new-apartments-become-the-norm.seo

http://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/prices-shrink-along-with-units-20101119-1805k.html

http://www.molonglogroup.com.au/news/recent-posts/apartments-shrinking

http://www.theweeklyreview.com.au/article-display/Innercity-living-the-next-generation/3361

http://www.brw.com.au/sections/property

http://news.domain.com.au/domain/ar...rinking-city-living-space-20110509-1ef9c.html

http://brisbanetimes.domain.com.au/...ncredible-shrinking-units-20110506-1ebqy.html

http://www.couriermail.com.au/prope...its-most-popular/story-e6frequ6-1226004579466

http://dandenong-leader.whereilive.com.au/property/story/exploring-inner-space/

http://news.domain.com.au/domain/ho...bigger-apartment-projects-20100816-126ke.html


PS: Out of curiousity what is your actual involvement in property? What is the size of your portfolio? What was your last purchase? because given the authority you talk with I am hoping your a captain of industry...






hobo-jo said:
You're doing a good job of trying to talk your way around your very own. Great entertainment. Every post of yours adds to the level of hypocrisy.

Who cares if units are getting smaller. Who cares if land is getting smaller. Neither is proof that on the average there are fewer bedrooms per dwelling unit in new developments.

Fact: You used anecdotal evidence against statistical fact and then ridiculed someone else for the same.

You're quite the spin doctor, Ill give you that.
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Guys how about everyone just calls a halt to hostilities.

These posts are not helping the value of this forum, its just a bunch of he says, i says trying to prove a point, when alot of the evidence on both sides contains a lot of subjective interpretation.
 
Agreed. But for my own understanding what is subjective about what I am posting? The main thrust of my posts have been that hobo-jos' self made formula and anlysis for interpreting the housing shortage is wrong or at the very least so simplistic that its illogical to think that such a straight forward division between population growth and a couple of ABS stats will render an acurate shortage or surplus figure.. from there I have stupidly followed his posts which strayed further and further from this main point.

Either way I dont care and your probably right either way... ill stop.

Intrinsic_Value said:
Guys how about everyone just calls a halt to hostilities.

These posts are not helping the value of this forum, its just a bunch of he says, i says trying to prove a point, when alot of the evidence on both sides contains a lot of subjective interpretation.
Click to expand...
 
tcocaro said:
invent your own way of interpreting housing shortage supported by absolutely no-one and I am the deluded one?
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I didn't invent anything. A lot of support for the "shortage" was driven by those analyzing population growth vs dwelling completions over a small period of time. All I did was extend the period to look at.

tcocaro said:
I repeat for the benefit of the hard of hearing.. I was referring to units all along but given you dont really care about specificity you keep harping on about houses when attacking me.
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My calculations are on dwelling units (combination of houses/units). You don't even seem to be able to comprehend the basic terminology, what chance is there of you understanding the table.

tcocaro said:
"Since 2008, however, there has been a slight decline in the size of houses" source: ABS
Even this category of dwelling has recently started to "decline" in size. Given you have harped on so much about ABS stats and your superb understanding of them I guess you can now fall on your sword and admit your wrong? - You wont, you will spin some irrelevant dribble instead no doubt. The above line was taken from the ABS must really burn when the facts conspire against you.
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A dwelling can reduce in size and keep or even increase the number of bedrooms.

Didn't get through the rest of your post after these few glaring mistakes. Sorry.

The funny thing is that ultimately the number of bedrooms/size of house is irrelevant. The relevant number is the average people per dwelling. We only got onto dwelling sizes because of your ridiculous notion that I was suggesting 3 people were trying to cram into 1 bedroom apartments.
 
evand said:
Just because he thought the market would fall 40% doesn't mean he didn't invest elsewhere.


How do you know he is renting?

Easy to say prices are between 10 - 35% higher now. Could you have said it then? And thats a wide spread.

I think your post goes in my meaningless post basket.
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If my posts r too meaningless by all means put me on ur ignore list so ur time is not wasted.

I used 10-35% because I don't know the area particularly and no-one here seems to agree how much it went up and 10-35% seemed to be the range people spoke off.

I had my portfolio valued recently and the properties i bought at that time have increased between 5-75% with the average about 40% so a massive difference depending on where they were bought and what they were.

Did i say it would go up, yes, i did it told everyone i knew it was a once in a lifetime opportunity and put my money where my mouth was and bought 15 properties in that time. As a result of the the opportunities available at that time (property,shares and business) i could retire tomorrow and never work again so yes even a half wit who writes meaningless posts could see and was prepared to act on the opportunities that were staring us in the face that the great professor completely stuffed up .

As a said I love the bloke, but his cult members on here lose credibility in my eyes when they say he was right when everything points to the opposite, say he will be right in the future say he is the second coming of JC but for god's sake admit he stuffed it big time on this.

Belbo, I believe if a client trusts your business with a transaction and pays the agreed fee you have a duty of loyalty and respect not to discuss that transaction in public especially if mocking that person. He didn't name him but he might as well have. I wouldn't do it and would hate it done to me.

cheers
 
...was Mr Keen aware of all the stimulus made on behalf of the government after he sold up? Nope. Looks like his predictions are starting to become true.. that is unless the government ramps up another debt binge and start giving out tripple home owner grants again.
 
cloudyday said:
...was Mr Keen aware of all the stimulus made on behalf of the government after he sold up? Nope. Looks like his predictions are starting to become true.. that is unless the government ramps up another debt binge and start giving out tripple home owner grants again.
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Dont quote me( although im sure the fact police will). But i believe he was aware of the stimulas as he also stated that rates would drop to zero to attempt put a floor under the market. So yes he knew but im not sure on how much.
 
I see the story as a chance to reflect on the difficulty of market timing, how to balance your portfolio and how making money by taking positions in the market is very different to having an opinion about what constitutes fair value for an asset.

Specifically with property we have a large degree of control over the micro factors including purchase price, but frustratingly little control over the macro drivers.

I'm not excluding myself from the following wisdom either!

Still a man hears what he wants to hear
And disregards the rest

- Simon & Garfunkel
 
Bigtone said:
....................... if a client trusts your business with a transaction and pays the agreed fee you have a duty of loyalty and respect not to discuss that transaction in public especially if mocking that person. He didn't name him but he might as well have. I wouldn't do it and would hate it done to me.

cheers
Click to expand...

Agree. Maybe legally there was no wrong doing, however ethically.........:cool:


For those inclined and who are situated in Sydney:

http://www.washingtonbrown.com.au/propertynews/issue-14-June11/property-bubble-crash-debate
 
tcocaro said:
StefanA you cannot simly select a particular month in the year that suits your view. As you can see median price jumps up and down between months given the number of sales for that month can have a large impact on the median. Its just just as easy to pick a month that shows a rise.

Why not pick the month of July 2010 as a starting point or why not pick the month of March 2011 as an ending point?? If you have March 2011 as the starting it shows a massive crash. However this is just perverting the stats.

Therefore what is normal practice is year to date and compared to the median price of the year before. If you report the median as everyone else does its a rise not a fall.
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I realise this guy is a bit of a pariah here, but I think he makes some relevant points about using medians, and how they can be used to obfuscate.

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20110602/5219.html#more-5219

No one wants dodgy data after all.
 
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