Steve Keen's apartment +25% since he sold

Ok ill try again.

Median price does not equal valuation. Just because the median rose by 25% doesnt mean that Keens specific property rose by exactly 25%.

However median shows the direction (as best we can) as we cannot possibly value every property sold year on year for an exact figure hence we use median price.

Lets be honest for a moment, if you bought a property in Surry Hills would you want the median to show a growth of 25%? If it was a fall of 25% would you be concerned? Ofcourse you would because the "likelyhood" is that your property fell.

Remember also that this is median we are talking about therefore its possible that Keens property rose by more than 25% just as it could have risen by less.

Median price is the best measure we have generally speaking. Regarding a specific property then a valuation and using comparable recent sales is obviously a better method.

I know exactly the unit Keen sold, given the median price gain I am certain that if I look at the building and see the units being sold that it will show a rise.

I stress dont get hung up on the specificity, a 25% increase in median is GOOD! you want to be in those suburbs. A 25% fall is bad regardless of how you look at it.

Chalmers St, Surrey hills? anyone know what block, then look at 'on the house',
would still really need to know the condition, new kitchen etc.

Otherwise it's just speculation after all, and as mentioned before, he could have pretty much kept pace with his money on term deposit.
 
Thanks for the anecdotal evidence, as always highly valuable and useful. Next time I do my market analysis and make my investment decisions I will base it entirely on this fantastic post.. cheers.


Interesting argument about "median". The whole "property doubles every 7 years" is based on median.

I have mentioned this many times but as there are always new members I'll retell the story: I bought my first house in '68. I had never heard the term but it was probably above median. I still own it today and if I hadn't spent money out of my pocket on refurbishing and repairs it would be a "doer-upperer" @ abt 50% of today's median. Well maintained it would STILL not be median.

20 years ago there were some cheep chit units in town but NOBODY :( lived in them. (OK nurses and apprentices) In the last 5-10 years there have been thousands come on stream with half a mil entry price. Every slum-lord with those crappy old units could only dream of getting "median" price, but it shows in the statistics. Currently there is heavy oversupply (flyin/flyout miners only need so many) and the median is plummeting again.

I never have to put a new roof on my BHP shares.
 
The Sunfish ignore list is long and varied so dont worry your in good company I assure you :D

However I do take pleasure in knowing that the likelyhood is that Sunfish hasnt ignored us and actually does read our posts. His problem is that having said he has ignored us means he cannot reply. :D

Thinking how frustrating that must be unable to reply as not to be caught out is just so entertaining... makes me want to reply to every post he ever makes.

Childish I know :p

I'm on 'ignore' so hopefully this shouldn't offend anyone too sensitive: I like Surry Hills.
 
In fact the median in Qtr 4 of 2008 was $420K and in Qtr 1 of 2011 it was $551K which represents an increase of......+31%.
Always amuses me how you use medians when it suits and when it doesn't it is simply cheaper houses selling rather than falling prices.

Has anyone got a graph/stat/anecdotal experience to show a 40% drop in property in Aus ever over a 20 year window?

Please post it below.

Ta.
Have you got an anecdotal graph/stat/anecdotal experience of another time that prices were this large a multiple of incomes? When total debt was this large vs GDP? When prices have risen this much in real terms (adjusted for inflation) over a 15 year period?

Please let us know when that was and what followed... if it's unprecedented then perhaps you can explain how you know what's coming next any better than Keen...
 
The Sunfish ignore list is long and varied so dont worry your in good company I assure you :D
The Sunfish ignore list is very short. In fact Belbo holds pride of place. just another wrong assumption tcocaro.

Why is it anecdotal evidence of great returns ("forget the overall, I'm making a motza in XYZ" stuff) is great but a simple statement of fact is to be derided? don't you guys see how one eyed you are?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Belbo
I'm on 'ignore' so hopefully this shouldn't offend anyone too sensitive: I like Surry Hills.
Why would anyone's opinion re Surry Hills offend anyone even more sensitive than I? I couldn't give a rat's bum about actual prices or opinions about where they're going. All I know is that I've done a whole lot better than 25% cumulative on the stock market since '08. Keen's timing was OK.
 
Cant be bothered finding it but in another thread some time back you claimed to have put me on ignore, so no assumptions beyond assuming you were speaking the truth.

"I'm making a motza.." these type of statements usually come from people needing reafirmation or need to "convince" people of how good or rich they are... what you think is a motza is pittance for others.

This is a property forum, heaven forbid if we talk about property over shares so its not being narrow minded about investment choices its simply knowing this is a forum about property not shares.

Also anecdotal evidence isnt fact, its just your opinion so please dont confuse the two. Also given the "motza" your making isnt even in property and given this is a property forum your opinion is worth nothing to me.


The Sunfish ignore list is very short. In fact Belbo holds pride of place. just another wrong assumption tcocaro.

Why is it anecdotal evidence of great returns ("forget the overall, I'm making a motza in XYZ" stuff) is great but a simple statement of fact is to be derided? don't you guys see how one eyed you are?
 
Cant be bothered finding it but in another thread some time back you claimed to have put me on ignore, so no assumptions beyond assuming you were speaking the truth.

Clearly a faulty memory.

"I'm making a motza.." these type of statements usually come from people needing reafirmation or need to "convince" people of how good or rich they are... what you think is a motza is pittance for others.

Believe what you will.

This is a property forum, heaven forbid if we talk about property over shares so its not being narrow minded about investment choices its simply knowing this is a forum about property not shares.

Yes this is a property forum and this thread is putting chit on someone for missing the "magnificent" return of 25% cumulative over 3 years. In comparison to that the "motza" is relevant
Also anecdotal evidence isnt fact, its just your opinion so please dont confuse the two. Also given the "motza" your making isnt even in property and given this is a property forum your opinion is worth nothing to me.

Anecdotal evidence is absolute fact. It SHOULD be of interest because of the time frame involved. Are you going to tell Ridin High that this is just "opinion" and has no place on the forum:

- I purchased a place in 2008 for $335,000 in Emu plains, NSW (4 bed, 2 bathroom, carport, brick, pretty nice inside, nice block) Feel free to have a look on realestate.com.au to see what similar places are going for. I estimate current value probably 360-380k.

This was presented as "proof" of something or other.
 
Anecdotal evidence is "your fact" and no one elses, debating a point with evidence specific to your experience, verifiable only by you is completely useless. Its comparable to me saying "The property market is crashing because I sold my house yesterday for a big loss" and then someone else comes a long and says "No its not its booming I sold for a big profit in that same suburb".

All these tid-bits serve no value in open discussion beyond interesting bits of side evidence because if I come up with my own tid-bit anecdotal evidence that goes against yours then what? We just shout at eachother that my experience, my evidence, my facts are better than yours? pfffft

And how on earth did you make money on the sharemarket? its impossible because "FACT" my supperanuation money went down and all they do is invest in shares so its impossible yours went up!!?!? :rolleyes:

Clearly a faulty memory.



Believe what you will.



Yes this is a property forum and this thread is putting chit on someone for missing the "magnificent" return of 25% cumulative over 3 years. In comparison to that the "motza" is relevant


Anecdotal evidence is absolute fact. It SHOULD be of interest because of the time frame involved. Are you going to tell Ridin High that this is just "opinion" and has no place on the forum:



This was presented as "proof" of something or other.
 
And how on earth did you make money on the sharemarket? its impossible because "FACT" my supperanuation money went down and all they do is invest in shares so its impossible yours went up!!?!?

That's WRONG and you know it. The ASX has done well since Oct '08, when Keen sold his unit, which is the time period being discussed on this thread.

z


3,500 to 4,750 isn't too shabby.
 
thanks for proving my point, anecdotal evidence is useless! And you couldnt even tell I was being coy with that last statement (sheesh you walked into that one).

My super did drop - fact. See how frustrating it is??? You feel like saying but my super has nothing to do with your own investment strategy correct? Much like how I feel when you tell me about your individual property results... they have nothing to do with the market as a whole.

Glad your starting to see how pointless referring to anecdotal evidence is as the basis for your whole argument :)

That's WRONG and you know it. The ASX has done well since Oct '08, when Keen sold his unit, which is the time period being discussed on this thread.

z


3,500 to 4,750 isn't too shabby.
 
Yes this is a property forum and this thread is putting chit on someone for missing the "magnificent" return of 25% cumulative over 3 years. In comparison to that the "motza" is relevant

The main point of it is keen did not sell becuase he thought he would invest better in shares, gold, or roadside mushrooms, he sold because he thought the market would crash 40%. That is the whole point it did not and if he was such an expert he could have waited, saved the rent he has paid and sold at today's prices which are somewhere between 10-35% higher.

i love the bloke he has helped me out big time:)
 
Just because he thought the market would fall 40% doesn't mean he didn't invest elsewhere.


How do you know he is renting?

Easy to say prices are between 10 - 35% higher now. Could you have said it then? And thats a wide spread.

I think your post goes in my meaningless post basket.

The main point of it is keen did not sell becuase he thought he would invest better in shares, gold, or roadside mushrooms, he sold because he thought the market would crash 40%. That is the whole point it did not and if he was such an expert he could have waited, saved the rent he has paid and sold at today's prices which are somewhere between 10-35% higher.

i love the bloke he has helped me out big time:)
 
My super did drop - fact.
Are you seriously trying to tell me your super has lost money since late '08 (Bet you can't prove any truth in that one!) or are you picking one particular quarter?

But as I said, believe as you will. I believe Keen did OK.
 
I Think you're wrong here. No one could have predicted the jump in growth caused by the GFC stimulus, low rates, FHGB, stamp duty discounts etc. Its easy to see it now, but not before the fact.

No one? I and many others predicted exactly that on multiple forums, including this one, and ****, and Credit Crunch, and Australian Property Forum.com! The bears told us we were crazy... that interest rates would never be cut, and even if they were, the banks would never pass it on, and even if they did, all the stimulus in the world couldn't prevent the inevitable 40% crash promised by Steve Keen etc etc.

Steve Keen promised a 40% crash within a few years. When he sold his home he stated that it would be crazy to keep paying a mortage on a home that was going to crash by 40% within a few years. At the time he did this, the government stimulus had already been announced, and Keen expected interest rates to be cut to zero. Shortly after he sold his home, house prices boomed. Then he changed his prediction to say that by 'a few years' he really meant 15 years, and that nobody could have predicted the impact of the stimulus (even though plenty of people did predict the impact quite accurately).
 
i would criticize keen in this instance as he sold when all the pointers showed there would be growth in the next 12-24 months which there was. he could have taken that growth and sold now if he was 1/10th as smart as he thinks he is

as for mcgrath i think putting out that article about keen when he was their client is way out of order, if he was not their client then fair game but that stinks.

I am no Keen fan, but I agree the 'name and shame' thing is poor form considering he was their client...
 
You keep going out of your way to prove my point that anecdotal evidence is useless... because its my word against yours... frustrating isnt it maybe next time you will refer to publicly available information, stats etc rather than your own experiences to justify your reasonings but I doubt you will your pretty fixed in your ways.

Keen did OK? lets see, lets recap, Keen argued a collapse in the property market (40% falls) sold his house on these claims but what transpired prices in his area rose by 25%, no collapse occured and you feel this is "OK". You say I am one eyed but you my friend have had both your eyes gouged out and ears plugged if you think this is an "OK" outcome.

Are you seriously trying to tell me your super has lost money since late '08 (Bet you can't prove any truth in that one!) or are you picking one particular quarter?

But as I said, believe as you will. I believe Keen did OK.
 
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