Suppliers of basics probably got richer in depression
The big one is coming say preppers
- Thread starter Freckle
- Start date
Suppliers of basics probably got richer in depression
ah, more Zerohedge permabear click bait...that stuff will kill ya 
Of course 'the big one' is coming... that's a given.
However, the 2nd half of your assertion is the real question. WHEN do you expect it to happen ?
...and will you make hay while the sun shines (like the rest of us) until that date ?
There were plenty of people wiped out in the Depression but it wasn't a total financial collapse. Some people prospered. There wasn't a societal or governmental collapse despite a lot of banks collapsing. This was in some part because most people were employed in agriculture and a lot of them remained on the farm with shelter and food. It would be very different these days. Most of the banks are highly leveraged and the derivates market is very scary.
There are plenty of historical academic books about the Great Depression if you are interested. Ben Bernanke, remember him, made his career out studying the Great Depression and was responsible for the current fiscal choices the US has made regarding stimulus.
A great book to read regarding financial catastrophes, their causes and impacts is
This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Rheinart and Rogoff
It's well worth a read.
Cheers
Shane
Made me look up good old hyperinflation. Highest recorded was Hungary, prices doubled every 15 hours! Must have been great for capital growth, lol.
As for Putin making sense well.... We'll just have to disagree on that one. That list is exactly what I'd expect him to write.
As for Putin making sense well.... We'll just have to disagree on that one. That list is exactly what I'd expect him to write.
If the toilet is inside the house ... i.e. I figure the lemon tree is OK for a few nights ....and I just pee in the normal inside toilet .... does the advice still apply? I'd appreciate a prompt reply cause I'm "busting" right now, it being Saturday night and all ..... thanks heaps ...LL
Cannibalism..... sorry, this is a sick joke and a seriously silly thread, nothing personal just an observation
Seriously??? This is Prepper 101 stuff. Indoor toilets are fine but your companion has to guarding the toilet entrance and you never EVER close the toilet door.
The situation downunder won't be anything like the apocalyptic scenario some imagine. There are already good models of what a financial collapse would or could look like in a worst case scenario. Cypress, Greece, Ireland, Iceland, Spain, Italy, France are examples of what you are most likely to see down here.
Comparatively Aus and NZ have fairly healthy economies with good resource basis to survive off. These things aren't going to crumble overnight or suddenly be of no value in international markets. Both countries can produce more food than they consume and energy won't be an issue for decades yet.
Both countries have stable govt's (if not always popular leaders), stable armed forces (military and police). Law, order and control will not diminish. It may in fact strengthen.
Both populations tend to react positively to difficult social situations and especially during times of catastrophe.
The nightmare scenarios are not financial. What scares me is that places like Fukushima go rogue and become an unstoppable nuclear disaster that effectively endangers global regions. In Europe a conflict would almost certainly endanger the many nuclear power plants dotted around the place. Ukraine has 4. Lose control of one of those and you truly have the makings of a nightmare.
A billion nuclear refugees would not be pretty.
Noah had inside information.
I expected it to happen 3 years ago as did many. What we and many others underestimated was the lengths the financial elite would go to to keep the ball rolling.
There have been some near misses over the last 2 years and what I've noticed is an increasing frequency in these bumps.
When.. the 64k question but the hairs are up on the back of my neck. There are signs everywhere that the system is breaking. What the straw will be is anyone's guess but like 08 it will come out of the blue for the masses and take them by surprise.
I come from Christchurch and had been in Oz for many years when the earthquakes hit. I travelled back and forth and was there when a 6.2 hit (but no damage) and that was before the big killer quake a short time later.
I've been back a year a now and even though the damage was catastrophic and wide spread there is a slow but stoic rebuild going on. It's a unique insight into how communities behave and recover after rebuild.
We'd known for decades that a 'big one' was coming but everyone simply ignores that and gets on with it and hopes. Hopes that it won't come in their lifetime, hopes if it does come they'll survive, hopes that they won't be too adversely affected.
As far as I'm concerned the financial crash is already here. We're in the early stages and CB infusions are keeping the worst effects at bay for the time being but like most drugs they're slowly losing their effectiveness and the system continues to deteriorate even if its hard to discern from the outside.
Would that be 'nominal' hay or 'real' hay.
The problem with property is that it takes huge amounts of leverage and long time frames to reduce that leverage and grow equity. That equity remains nominal until you can cash out and in a collapsing market that is almost impossible.
Getting leverage below 60% is a benchmark for financial survival these days and by no means guaranteed. Survival make actually look like 0% equity but sufficient income to service debt and so give the illusion of wealth.
Most PI's, 80+%, are leveraged to the gills and own less than 3 properties. You get a tiny minority of large portfolio PI's who constantly pump the meme PI is the solution.
During the last GFC many investments got hammered and many lost significant chunks of their super and retirement/investment funds. Property largely escaped any real correction but it's turn is coming.
The reality is many will make hay only to see it evaporate when a property corrections comes.
That by no means suggests people should not give it a go. How you plan for this event and your risk appetite are the key determinants. Success rates are low but that's the nature of the game.
We've always invested with bad times in mind (though it caught us off guard too a few years back! Came a few years earlier than was betting on).
Things we've done:
Invested in the cheaper end of the residential property market. When **it hits the fan, we figure people still need a place to live but will live in smaller/cheaper places.
Hold some gold. (One of the things that saved out backsides in the GFC cruncher)
Grow our own food (ok, this is more a hobby thing, but being able to feed yourself/barter in tough times is not a bad thing)
Things we are doing now in addition (because where a bit older and less adventurous):
Paid down debt (in offset)
Moved from general shares to CPT's with the thinking that industrials/financials tend to be hit immediately with bad news on the market, but CPT's with big business tenants and long leases will likely have a lagging effect - certainly from a yield perspective(commercial leases can't just be broken if the business is a going concern). By the same token, looking for CPT's with "recession resistant" tenants - i.e. avoiding manufacturing, looking for offices, large shopping centres with Woolies, Coles and Aldi as key tenants, and without heavy reliance on boutique stores.
The Y-man
Things we've done:
Invested in the cheaper end of the residential property market. When **it hits the fan, we figure people still need a place to live but will live in smaller/cheaper places.
Hold some gold. (One of the things that saved out backsides in the GFC cruncher)
Grow our own food (ok, this is more a hobby thing, but being able to feed yourself/barter in tough times is not a bad thing)
Things we are doing now in addition (because where a bit older and less adventurous):
Paid down debt (in offset)
Moved from general shares to CPT's with the thinking that industrials/financials tend to be hit immediately with bad news on the market, but CPT's with big business tenants and long leases will likely have a lagging effect - certainly from a yield perspective(commercial leases can't just be broken if the business is a going concern). By the same token, looking for CPT's with "recession resistant" tenants - i.e. avoiding manufacturing, looking for offices, large shopping centres with Woolies, Coles and Aldi as key tenants, and without heavy reliance on boutique stores.
The Y-man
How did you use gold to save your rectal in the GFC. And what made it necessary? I loved the GFC. IRs fell dramatically and cash flow went up up up. So holding the Properties was easier than normal. People got scared and didn't move ....so tenants were easy to find. Values held really well ....so I don't see what the problem was ?? Property was THE best asset class to hold through the GFC ..... Where was the problem ? LL
