http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/10/20/nigeria-to-be-declared-ebola-free/
Nigeria manged to beat it.
Nigeria manged to beat it.
The big one is coming say preppers
- Thread starter Freckle
- Start date
LOL. A young fella up at Hedland said as much to me a few years back when I suggested sell up his 5 properties and take the profit. He had 2mil in equity and 10k per week in rents. I figured at that time the place had at best 2 years. He kept telling me China would run forever and all was good.
Last I heard the bank had or was selling him up. And he was out of a job as well. It never rains but it pours.
I mate partner of mine did the same thing. We'd just cleaned up $250k for a months work. I told him to sell his gear and get out because it was all over. He said no and bought my gear to ride the wave for another 12 months. His gears worth 10% of what it was if you can sell it and he's stting around with no work and no job.
I went and bought a new tin hat with proceeds seeing as the last one worked so well.
Just have to ask the question, have you posted on this site before under a different name
, and when you dream is it in black and white or colour but calling long time posters whom most did not come down in the last cyclone names is not going to do you any good because large deviations will always occur that's the only way people make 1000% markups..Thanks for those references.
What probability do you put on any of this affecting us investors here in Australia ? Is it 100% guaranteed, or minuscule (like the 200 incidents of loss or release of bioweapons agents from U.S. laboratories are reported each year from your referenced source) ?
An old man once told me houses at $300k inner city were too expensive.
He sure showed me...
He sure showed me...
LOL. A young fella up at Hedland said as much to me a few years back when I suggested sell up his 5 properties and take the profit. He had 2mil in equity and 10k per week in rents. I figured at that time the place had at best 2 years. He kept telling me China would run forever and all was good.
Last I heard the bank had or was selling him up. And he was out of a job as well. It never rains but it pours.
I mate partner of mine did the same thing. We'd just cleaned up $250k for a months work. I told him to sell his gear and get out because it was all over. He said no and bought my gear to ride the wave for another 12 months. His gears worth 10% of what it was if you can sell it and he's stting around with no work and no job.
I went and bought a new tin hat with proceeds seeing as the last one worked so well.
LOL. A young fella up at Hedland said as much to me a few years back when I suggested sell up his 5 properties and take the profit. He had 2mil in equity and 10k per week in rents. I figured at that time the place had at best 2 years. He kept telling me China would run forever and all was good.
Last I heard the bank had or was selling him up. And he was out of a job as well. It never rains but it pours.
I mate partner of mine did the same thing. We'd just cleaned up $250k for a months work. I told him to sell his gear and get out because it was all over. He said no and bought my gear to ride the wave for another 12 months. His gears worth 10% of what it was if you can sell it and he's stting around with no work and no job.
I went and bought a new tin hat with proceeds seeing as the last one worked so well.
There's a few stories now regarding the mining towns as the cycle turns
i have no idea how this relates to my post. It's late you'll have to connect the dots..
i have no idea how this relates to my post. It's late you'll have to connect the dots..
Trying to point out that no one can predict the future, and you shouldn't shut people down because they decide to take a different approach to yours.
In the day and age where information is just a mouse click away, any common fool can provide evidence to support any argument.
That's a moving target. As Ebola numbers increase so the risk increases.
Abbott is closing the border to/from selected destinations deemed at risk. What happens if Ebola gets into India, SE Asia etc. How will they react?
The tourism industry could be hit quite hard. If you get any border breaches with Ebola then you're likely to see knee jerk reactions from government. Impossible to know how this will play out.
What happens if terrorists try to capitalise on Ebola as was the case with anthrax. If I was a terrorist organisation this would be a gift.
Hmmm.... my question was 'What probability do you put on any of this affecting us investors here in Australia ?'
Based on all available current information, my guess is < 1% at present. Although as you quite rightly say 'Impossible to know how this will play out.'
What's your guess ?
And a couple of supplementary questions....
What concrete steps have to taken to mitigate the risk ?
What date will you consider that your concerns were misplaced ?
My view is.....
When the multi $T markets (who I believe have access to far better information than you or I), start to worry about it then I will.
The bottom line is - It's not what we think we know that matters, it's what we think the market movers think that really matters.... and right now markets in Oz are reflecting their thoughts, which is currently at odds with your concerns.
Of course, you may be right eventually, but that's not good enough, you've got to right at the right time.
No one can predict the future? LOL. There are lot of things one can predict with high rates of certainty.
A prediction (Latin pr?-, "before," and dicere, "to say") or forecast is a statement about the way things will happen in the future, often but not always based on experience or knowledge.
Some predictions are as easy as predicting the sun will rise in the east tomorrow.
As for shutting people down I have no idea how to even do that.
Perhaps comments like;
are your way of suppressing/belittling any comment that doesn't jive with your view of the worldboeman said:
I think ebola is great for Oz property
I think the ebola threat etc is great for Oz property as it plays exactly to our natural geo-political strength. Which is, we are a relatively clean, pollution free, remote island in the southern hemisphere "miles away from all the crap" ...with good border controls and medical facilities. Of course if that idiot Hansen-Young has her way she'd change all that. LL
I think the ebola threat etc is great for Oz property as it plays exactly to our natural geo-political strength. Which is, we are a relatively clean, pollution free, remote island in the southern hemisphere "miles away from all the crap" ...with good border controls and medical facilities. Of course if that idiot Hansen-Young has her way she'd change all that. LL
As much as "sheeple" is your blanket term for those of us who don't believe in radical conspiracy theories and an approaching collapse of the world.
But yes, I can retract the prediction comment, seeing as the definition allows for people to do it without it needing to be based on experience or knowledge.
Anyway, I am just feeding the troll here, back to my sunshine fairytale I go to await my impending doom.
But yes, I can retract the prediction comment, seeing as the definition allows for people to do it without it needing to be based on experience or knowledge.
Anyway, I am just feeding the troll here, back to my sunshine fairytale I go to await my impending doom.
No one can predict the future? LOL. There are lot of things one can predict with high rates of certainty.
A prediction (Latin pr?-, "before," and dicere, "to say") or forecast is a statement about the way things will happen in the future, often but not always based on experience or knowledge.
Some predictions are as easy as predicting the sun will rise in the east tomorrow.
As for shutting people down I have no idea how to even do that.
Perhaps comments like;
are your way of suppressing/belittling any comment that doesn't jive with your view of the world
I would agree. It's a watching brief.
The situation is too vague at the moment but the signs are not encouraging. It's like watching the first 1/4 of a footy game and your team has just dropped the ball and had early points put on the board against it. Too early to right them off and hopefully they can lift their game.
Steps = flexibility and mobility. Time frames become irrelevant when you are simply prepared. It's like earthquakes. Be prepared and you'll suffer less and minimise any losses maybe avoid them altogether.
Markets are managed and manipulated in almost every way. There isn't a market signal I would trust today.
There's nothing much for markets to react to at the moment.
You're assuming my timing is wrong. Now might actually be the right time.
Time will tell.
I've never been big on conspiracy theories but I don't write them off either because they usually have some element of truth. Discerning what that truth is can be challenging.
Sheeple like to accept the establishment line and move with the flock. The term is a generalisation and not a descriptor of this readership specifically.
Independent contrarian thinkers who challenge the status quo are a minority. They exist on this forum but aren't as extroverted as I am.
There are many independent thinkers on this forum who have investment longevity and knowledge. There were many threads discussing the impending gfc in mid 2007 before it occurred. And lots of threads discussing investment strategies and options throughout that period. I am sure you may have a lot to offer but most of the longer term readership have seen many highly opinionated members disappear after their strategies failed publicly and spectacularly. That's not to say that some here haven't endured their own hardships at times, I am sure.
This thread received a lot of engagement but certainly would have been better without degenerating with name calling on either side. Staying on topic, exploring and challenging the ideas not the man is the best way. After all, a smart person reserves the right to change their mind
I should be safe then. I don't usually endorse elaborate public strategies that are likely to fail spectacularly.
Excellent - then we agree there's less than 1% chance of it affecting us. Of course that could (& probably will) change at any time.
I was actually asking about concrete steps, not generalities. Maybe shorting index futures, buying puts, drawing down LOCs, buying land East of Kalgoorlie, growing veggies ? Shorting airline stocks ? Buying biotech startups ? Gold ? What are you investments BTW ?
I disagree. Being prepared means that something else must be neglected or suffer.. usually investments.
Risk mitigation for something that has a <1% chance of occurring is (for most of us) unlikely to happen.
As neither you nor I are big enough to manipulate the market, we must accept that markets are manipulated, and learn to live with it & profit from it. However, the point I'm making is that our investments are governed by the markets - so if the market doesn't have the same concerns as you then why should we care what you think ?
I agree entirely, the market isn't bothered, so neither should we be.
That's was another one of my questions that you sidestepped... when will you conclude that you concerns are misplaced ? Again I'm looking for a concrete answer... is it when WHO or Obama declares it's all over, or when the number of new cases start falling, or when a vaccine is created ? or something else ?
And the converse is.... when will you consider that the risk is higher than 1% ? When there are 20 confirmed cases in the US ? When the DOW falls 10% based on new cases ?
ATM 99.9% of us only have whatever FUD that the papers/internet feed us. So making reasoned assessments of the concerns is impossible.
When I look back on all these worries, I remember the story of the old man who said on his deathbed that he had had a lot of trouble in his life, most of which had never happened
― Winston S. Churchill
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Nice reply Keithj
The Churchill quote is a cracker!
The Churchill quote is a cracker!
