The big one is coming say preppers

[Freckle]

I was actually asking about concrete steps, not generalities. Maybe shorting index futures, buying puts, drawing down LOCs, buying land East of Kalgoorlie, growing veggies ? Shorting airline stocks ? Buying biotech startups ? Gold ? What are you investments BTW ?

I've cashed out and own nothing. I've played with the markets and come out about evens. In the end I simply couldn't muster the enthusiasm to develop the expertise to be successful. I've seen too many burnt out and broke traders who even with a lifetime of experience could not make a call with any certainty.

I disagree. Being prepared means that something else must be neglected or suffer.. usually investments.

I don't need to play 24/7. I'm cashed up, cashed out and just watching and waiting. If an opportunity comes along I'll seriously consider it but I'm more into life than getting bogged down making a buck.

Each to his own.

Risk mitigation for something that has a <1% chance of occurring is (for most of us) unlikely to happen.

Life will present multiple threats and multiple opportunities. You prioritise accordingly. Things like Ebola are at the bottom of my threat list for the time being.

Others will have a different view of what constitutes a threat or opportunity.

As neither you nor I are big enough to manipulate the market, we must accept that markets are manipulated, and learn to live with it & profit from it. However, the point I'm making is that our investments are governed by the markets - so if the market doesn't have the same concerns as you then why should we care what you think ?

It seems you're hung up on what markets do. Given they are neither rational nor intelligent the linkage is tenuous. I don't care what people think. I'm not invested in their future. They can look at what I say, analyse it, compare it to what they know and draw their own conclusions.

That's what discussions do. They expose different views, opinions, ideas, facts etc. My contribution is but one perspective from a viewpoint that is usually shunned in places like this. Places like this get very one dimensional when you all agree or try to suppress alternative viewpoints you disagree with.

I agree entirely, the market isn't bothered, so neither should we be.

You keep talking about the market as if it's singular entity. The reality is that parts of the market are bothered. You need to look around more rather promulgating inaccurate assumptions.

That's was another one of my questions that you sidestepped... when will you conclude that you concerns are misplaced ?

Lets see.. a number of leading experts are warning of an impending pandemic that could have widespread ramifications on a global scale and my concerns are misplaced.

when will you consider that the risk is higher than 1% ? When there are 20 confirmed cases in the US ? When the DOW falls 10% based on new cases ?

The current concern is will it get into India or China? Both of which have large numbers of workers in the region. If it gets into India then all bets are off.

ATM 99.9% of us only have whatever FUD that the papers/internet feed us. So making reasoned assessments of the concerns is impossible.

For you maybe not me.

 

[Jaggannath]

A conversation with Freckle is like trying to nail jelly to a wall. I think I've seen more specifics in Nostradamus' poetry

And if ebola reaches India in any meaningful way we're probably all in a world of hurt.

 

[Blair007]

I have a feeling this is going to go on....

and on...

and on.

Fair enough if your a bear or bull each to there own but freckle you just seem to not want to give in mate. Okay things could turn bad, there may be a bubble. but like a few people have mentioned in this thread already there have been these scare stories going around for decades and the only people that have missed out so far are the ones sitting around telling the stories.

 

[Freckle]

the only people that have missed out so far are the ones sitting around telling the stories.

Absolute rubbish. The guys who generate these 'stories' as you describe them are some of the wealthiest people in the world.

Your response reflects those of the sheeple who want to be cotton wooled and only told the nice stuff.

Those with a few smarts here don't simply look to suppress negative information. They tend to embrace it, look at the possible outcomes and look for both opportunities and ideas for protection.

There's an analysis method used by business called SWOT. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats.

Successful business does not ignore threats or weaknesses. They look to expose them and understand them better.

PS: I was blindsided by the negatives some 20 odd years ago because I focused on the positives at the expense of the negatives. Understanding them or realising that a serious correction was coming has never stopped me taking risks or investing. It's simply part of the risk landscape. Ignore at your peril. You might get lucky. Many don't.

 

[plusnq]

I agree that it is important to assess the risks as well as rewards of any investment. I am not so convinced of a runaway financial collapse occurring in the near future. These massive collapses tend to occur when they come a bit out of the blue. Although some commentators may see the crisis earlier, and are useful bellwethers, the key is often how the regulators are reacting. My feelings are that at the moment the regulators are much more watchful than they were pre 2008 and any bush fires are more likely to be contained. Not much fun if your are in the bushfire but less likely to take everyone out.

Risk management is one part of the equation. Identifying opportunities is another. Having access to capital in a crisis to exploit the opportunities is also important.

 

[keithj]

I agree that it is important to assess the risks as well as rewards of any investment. I am not so convinced of a runaway financial collapse occurring in the near future. These massive collapses tend to occur when they come a bit out of the blue. Although some commentators may see the crisis earlier,

The problem with the commentators who DO see the crisis earlier is that they tend to predict the same D&G every year, and are as useful as a broken clock. Some websites are the same - I believe you can tell a lot about a poster based on the websites they quote.

... the key is often how the regulators are reacting. My feelings are that at the moment the regulators are much more watchful than they were pre 2008 and any bush fires are more likely to be contained.

I agree. And regards timing of the black swan, I believe that the $T markets will have far better info that we could possibly get our hands on. Re Ebola, the hedge fundies will have hospitals, virologists, Obamas Chief Medical Officer, etc on speed-dial & can react when they consider the risk is unacceptable. We can either react early & risk jumping at shadows, or watch what they (the market) does and react quickly, or do nothing in the knowledge that assets have always recovered after such events.

 

[Freckle]

I believe that the $T markets will have far better info that we could possibly get our hands on.

Markets are reactive not predictive. By the time the markets do anything it will be too late.

If it was that easy we'd all be rich. Markets also throw out misleading information that inspire a surge just prior to a correction.

The market is about as busted and distorted as it gets but I figure they'll screw it some more before this is all over. The market is fueled by supportive FED/POBC/BOJ/ECB printing and stock buybacks underpinned by massive debt mountains. Exec's chasing EPS to ensure those mega bonus packages.

It'll be fascinating to see how they unwind $0.7-$1.2 Quadrillion in derivatives. Lehmans and AIG where tiny derivative unwinds that got the last ball rolling. Europes sitting on $1.2T in NPL they admit to so the figure is probably much higher. That leaves around 40% of EU banks insolvent with Deutsch sitting on leverage of 60:1

Global debt's growing at around 11%yoy while growth is sub 3%. You don't have to be a maths genius to figure out where this is going. The EU is in a triple dip recession (depression more like) and deflation is scaring the bejesus out of all and sundry. The US is pulling QE and by all accounts is looking to punch interest rates up because is sees another recession and has no ammo to fight it. Higher interest rates would give the perception that has some wiggle room.

Japan's an absolute basket case by any metric and China is slowing down faster than anybody would like. They're talking 3.5% growth in a few years. I think they're there now given they have a rep for hyping their numbers. Even Michael Pettis is talking hard landings for the Chinese and he's probably the most respected econ guy anywhere.

So as far as markets telling you anything ...well all I see is lies and misinformation.

 

[Freckle]

The problem with the commentators who DO see the crisis earlier is that they tend to predict the same D&G every year, and are as useful as a broken clock.

It seems you hear/read only what you want to.

The vast majority of mainstream D&G commentators rale at the sheer corruption, fraud and abuse of power that is creating risks that the 90% will have to pick up the tab for when everything turns to custard.

They are a minority who take risks to try and ensure a free and fair system for all not the highly controlled ponzi scheme that benefits a few and leaves the rest of us to pick up the pieces.

You seem to think that because it hasn't happened to you then it won't touch you. You have immunity some how. It has happened, is happening but you have only eyes and ears for the prize like so many others.

The first waves of a correction are lapping at AU's shores now. There's more to come.

Recessions/depressions

- Iceland
- Ireland
- Spain
- Argentina
- Venezuela
- Italy
- Greece
- Cypress
- Brazil
- Japan
- France
- Germany
- USA
- China

All of these economies have collapsed or are collapsing. Those with any growth only generate it by massive borrowing/printing programs in the hope the declines will stop and they can then grow back out of their debt holes. They've been trying it since 08 and have only managed to dig themselves in deeper. Their debt loads in the main have passed what is usually considered the point of no return - you can't generate income greater than borrowing costs so you borrow to pay the interest. The death dive.

The best minds in the world havent been able to figure a way out of this but the sheeple willingly believe that a solution will materilise somewhere to solve this dilemma

Good luck with that.. hope and pray has never been much of a strategy.

 

[willair]

The best minds in the world havent been able to figure a way out of this but the sheeple willingly believe that a solution will materilise somewhere to solve this dilemma

I don't know about that the sun is shining outside top day ,,and you are wrong some high end lesser read people like Robert J. Shiller from Yale were talking and warning about 2008 and the "GFC" in 2007, and it does not matter 1% under any given circumstances that if people think they can predict everything that,s going to happen they may well be not as free as they think..

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/

 

[keithj]

Markets are reactive not predictive. By the time the markets do anything it will be too late.

I believe markets are more predictive than random internet posters .

Markets also throw out misleading information that inspire a surge just prior to a correction.

That's completely normal behaviour. I'll be taking advantage of that behaviour... and you ?

The market is about as busted and distorted as it gets but I figure they'll screw it some more before this is all over. The market is fueled by supportive FED/POBC/BOJ/ECB printing and stock buybacks underpinned by massive debt mountains. Exec's chasing EPS to ensure those mega bonus packages.

Yep... completely normal.... well, except for the FED who last night said they're stopping QE3.

So as far as markets telling you anything ...well all I see is lies and misinformation.

I'll agree to some extent, but again, get used to it - it's completely normal.

 

[MTR]

Oh no, not again, happening more frequently now, I don't know why

Another one of those "Treadmill to no where" threads

 

[truong]

I just came across this thread and haven't read all the posts, sorry.

Some 40 years ago I lived through a TEOTWAWKI event in the country where I grew up. Almost overnight there was a regime of terror thrust on us, the economy collapsed, food production crashed, money became worthless, banks went out of existence, private business was made illegal and jobs redundant. All the systems that supported society including the rule of law and the ability for people and goods to move around just disappeared.

My family was left selling old clothing and furniture on back streets for food, my son was barred from school and many of us were taken away fate unknown.

When all macro systems fail then whatever micro stuff you may come up with beforehand is likely to fail too. I saw the most careful preparations unravel spectacularly. The only thing that worked for me (and literally saved me) was a strong network of loyal friends and relatives, but that wasn't part of the plan!

By the way I've come across one of these prepper shows on TV. Lunacy and mental illness come to mind.

 

[Freckle]

Some 40 years ago I lived through a TEOTWAWKI event in the country where I grew up.

Cambodia??

 

[Freckle]

I don't know about that the sun is shining outside top day ,,and you are wrong some high end lesser read people like Robert J. Shiller from Yale were talking and warning about 2008 and the "GFC" in 2007, and it does not matter 1% under any given circumstances that if people think they can predict everything that,s going to happen they may well be not as free as they think..

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/

I have absolutely no idea what you mean by that para. Double dutch to me.

 

[The Falcon]

Cambodia??

My moneys on Republic of Vietnam.

 

[Freckle]

I believe markets are more predictive than random internet posters .

That's completely normal behaviour. I'll be taking advantage of that behaviour... and you ?

Yep... completely normal.... well, except for the FED who last night said they're stopping QE3.

I'll agree to some extent, but again, get used to it - it's completely normal.

Staggering what you consider as normal.

Pump and dumps are actually illegal not normal. QE has never been normal and the doozy where you believe markets are predictive but they lie and mislead. That's up there with the strangest normal I've ever seen.

I suspect you're confused.

 

[keithj]

you believe markets are predictive but they lie and mislead.

In that case you're v. lucky to have found this forum... you should learn how markets really work.

There are many here who see the early signs in markets and are able to take advantage of them.... some of them have done this over many property cycles and are v. well off as a result.

I recommend you read a lot of threads and work out who the smart guys and gals are, and then keep reading some more. You'll also find that the really accomplished ones take a lot of effort to mitigate risk. They don't ignore risks, they evaluate them, and take action based on their perception of how likely they are to occur & secondly how big the effect on their portfolio would be.

 

[truong]

Cambodia??

No, Vietnam, when capitalist South was run over by communist North.

 

[The Fence]

Freckle, preaching G&D to those who have survived all the "big ones" thus far.

LOL!

 

[Freckle]

Freckle, preaching G&D to those who have survived all the "big ones" thus far.

LOL!

They must be pretty old then. The last 'big one' was during the 30's