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The big one is coming say preppers
- Thread starter Freckle
- Start date
It's one thing to think forward (which is good management) but another to obsess about imaginary global catastrophes (which is neurosis). The boundary between the two is sometimes fuzzy but one possible sign of neurosis is for the person to put aspects of their life on hold, even to their great detriment, in anticipation of the imaginary event.
Another sign is to view those who try to reason with them as part of a vast conspiracy. They're stuck in their own world and can't be moved. This is very different from the risk mitigation state of mind that always stays flexible and open to the changing nature of risks.
I feel for preppers, really. Life is hard enough as it is and yet they feel compelled to create fantasies that make life even more miserable. They're not anti-social but anti-themselves. The person they hurt the most is themselves.
I think the definition of preppers is different... stocking up on a bit of food and non-perishables to survive short-term disasters is prudent, but longer-term strategies such as selling up and waiting are no different to hedging or shorting. If we all were trying to do the same it wouldn't work, and if my strategy is wrong and someone else is right I'll just need to suck it up.
I think my only problem is the derisory way Henny Penny (or was it Chicken Licken) refers to people who don't agree with his perspective... if you're so sure, Freckle, sit back and await the carnage. People will always make bad decisions and have to suffer the consequences, it just depends on the magnitude as to how many get dragged in to the vortex
I think my only problem is the derisory way Henny Penny (or was it Chicken Licken) refers to people who don't agree with his perspective... if you're so sure, Freckle, sit back and await the carnage. People will always make bad decisions and have to suffer the consequences, it just depends on the magnitude as to how many get dragged in to the vortex
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Agreed. These debates seem to me to be so much more about ego and rightness than profit or evidence for mutual benefit. I just switch off when it gets that tone.
If you were to critically evaluate the performance of PI's over a lifetime then 80% don't make the grade.
For millennia our financial system has been based on fractional reserve banking. It has a finite lifetime before requiring a reset. The end of a cycle is usually marked by debt loads so large there is little or no credit capacity left within the system.
We are near the end of this current cycle's life. The transition to the next cycle will be bumpy for some and traumatic for many. The effects of this transition are impacting Australia somewhat belatedly now.
Believing this sort of 'nonsense' is unimportant is an amateur's mistake.
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Ebola infected could reach 1 million by Jan 2015
If you check the news, you'll see that the US Centre for Disease Control has said that Ebola could infect over a million people by January 2015 - a mere 3 months away. That is based on their computer modelling. Admittedly that is the worst case scenario, but is "quite possible".
Of course, even if it is far less than that, there is no way it could be confined to Africa, or more specifically West Africa. There also seems to be some difference of opinion amongst experts as to whether the Ebola virus could mutate to become airborne, like the flu.
Of course, for the disbelievers on this forum, it could all be a conspiracy by the CDC, the WHO and others, in cohorts with the massive pharmaceutical and biotech industry to make and sell huge amounts of vaccines.
If it's not a conspiracy and it does happen, it could well be the 'black swan' event that triggers the global financial meltdown - a meltdown that, as predicted by many experienced commentators outside the MSM, is a mathematical certainty in the not-too-distant future in any case.
The people on this thread/forum should not be so quick to dismiss Freckle. He's a very smart and well-informed bloke, and no, I don't know him personally at all, but most of what he says I agree with. The social historian Margaret Heffernan talks about "wilful blindness", which I believe many on this thread are guilty of. It's not a matter of being a pessimist or an optimist. The former sees the glass as half empty of water the latter, as half full. The realist looks for the real truth of a situation, without confirmation bias. ( Look it up). In many cases referred to by Freckle, the glass contains not water, but urine.
If you check the news, you'll see that the US Centre for Disease Control has said that Ebola could infect over a million people by January 2015 - a mere 3 months away. That is based on their computer modelling. Admittedly that is the worst case scenario, but is "quite possible".
Of course, even if it is far less than that, there is no way it could be confined to Africa, or more specifically West Africa. There also seems to be some difference of opinion amongst experts as to whether the Ebola virus could mutate to become airborne, like the flu.
Of course, for the disbelievers on this forum, it could all be a conspiracy by the CDC, the WHO and others, in cohorts with the massive pharmaceutical and biotech industry to make and sell huge amounts of vaccines.
If it's not a conspiracy and it does happen, it could well be the 'black swan' event that triggers the global financial meltdown - a meltdown that, as predicted by many experienced commentators outside the MSM, is a mathematical certainty in the not-too-distant future in any case.
The people on this thread/forum should not be so quick to dismiss Freckle. He's a very smart and well-informed bloke, and no, I don't know him personally at all, but most of what he says I agree with. The social historian Margaret Heffernan talks about "wilful blindness", which I believe many on this thread are guilty of. It's not a matter of being a pessimist or an optimist. The former sees the glass as half empty of water the latter, as half full. The realist looks for the real truth of a situation, without confirmation bias. ( Look it up). In many cases referred to by Freckle, the glass contains not water, but urine.
Well said. The irony of me just exhibiting confirmation bias myself is not lost on me!
Not sure that fractional reserve banking has been around for millenia. Centuries yes, but not millenia. Notes were exchanged for real money and gold in the early 1600's in Amsterdam from memory. Could be wrong though.
The problem with seeing a crisis coming is understanding its timing and magnitude. Cashing up is great if you get your timing right. If you don't and they push the can down the road for a while longer then a lot of opportunity may be lost. Given that the average persons working life is only forty years, timing is important, perhaps more important than most strategies. Plenty of spruckers show charts from the beginning of trends. But if you move the start point ten years earlier or later then the returns fall dramatically.
Risk management is a very important tool for investing but the problem for a lot of investors is they swing from one extreme to another instead of having a definite risk management strategy in place.
Your statement about debt collapsing the systems is historically true. We are definitely in uncharted territory at the moment. Debt levels are historically high but for the first time in economic history there is a massive global co-ordinated effort on the fiscal front. What will happen remains unclear at the moment, to me.
If your financial system collapse occurs, I believe there will be massive social unrest. It already happened in the US and Europe when the GFC hit. Imagine what it will be like if another Great Depression occurs.
My 2c
What we think of as a modern banking system had its roots in Europe around the 13th century. China was using promissory notes written on leather around 200BC
This is true of all investment decision making regardless of the cycle.
Globally debt's been growing at around 10-13%/pa while growth has averaged around 3%. You can see the path to debt collapse in Europe through examples like Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland etc. Almost every other country is on the same trajectory. They haven't figured out how to change course yet so one can only assume that given the current course financial collapse is inevitable.
It's happening. The news is mostly suppressed by MSM outlets.
wiki disagrees with you.
And promissory notes aren't the same as fractional reserve banking.
So how do you see it playing out ? If we get hyper inflation, then do you think those who fled to cash will lose the most, and those the kept sensibly leveraged hard assets will win the most ?
I think we all agree that something bad will happen at some time, but the question is When ?
For millennia our financial system has been based on fractional reserve banking.
Don't recall saying they were. A note of whatever denomination is a standardised promissory note.
More of the same until it goes tits up.
Possibly but the immediate concern is deflation which favors the one holding cash. Hyperinflation is a loss of faith in a currency. That won't necessarily happen to all currencies.
It always is.
Property values are a function of credit availability, credit capacity, and the cost of credit.
Credit capacity (of individuals) is diminishing world wide. CB's have reduced the cost to expand capacity. Availability is increasing and qualifying criteria reducing as credit growth deaccelerates.
Writings on the wall. Plan accordingly.
Credit capacity (of individuals) is diminishing world wide. CB's have reduced the cost to expand capacity. Availability is increasing and qualifying criteria reducing as credit growth deaccelerates.
Writings on the wall. Plan accordingly.
Freckle - how many of these complete monetary collapses have you seen? Forget the occasional crazy like Robert Mugabe destroying his country's currency through stupidity, how many major genuinely prosperous nations have had this happen to them?
I've been hearing about the imminent correction, then crash, then economic meltdown since about 2002. And since that time I've worked, advanced my career, invested, and become a millionaire twice over.
I'm not buying it. It is possible, but to happen it relies on a series of events that are unlikely, and would require our government to sit around doing nothing.
Are you a precious metal hoarder, by any chance?
I've been hearing about the imminent correction, then crash, then economic meltdown since about 2002. And since that time I've worked, advanced my career, invested, and become a millionaire twice over.
I'm not buying it. It is possible, but to happen it relies on a series of events that are unlikely, and would require our government to sit around doing nothing.
Are you a precious metal hoarder, by any chance?
Those events have been in train since the 70's and possibly earlier.
Who do you think controls/owns the government. It sure as hell isn't you and me. Watching Labours demise was a lesson for all in who really pulls the strings. I cry with laughter when the government says it going to talk to banks and publicly decries their mercenary actions.
Have you ever noticed how toothless government regulatory bodies are when it come to banks and big business. ASIC's a joke. Underfunded and under resourced for a very good reason.
Oh lets see off the top of my head (in recent times), UK 70's India 91, Scandinavia 90's, Russia 98, Mexico 94, Asia 97, Argentina 2000 and 2013, Iceland 08, Ireland 08, Greece 08, Cyprus 13, Venezuela 13, USA 08, Japan 08,
In reality the 08 collapse is still unfolding. All they did was hit C+P to stall/delay the collapse in the hope of recovering the situation. To date that hasn't occurred. The structures and conditions that support the global financial system continue to deteriorate. Absolutely nothing got fixed.
If more than a handful of extreme pessimists thought this, then wouldn't you expect the price of gold to have hit $10,000/oz by now ? As you will be aware it's been falling for a while
.We all know that a collapse will come eventually..... you would be a really useful poster if you could tell us when. Even a just couple of months notice would be great
.Until then all sensible investors will continue to invest, take reasonable risks in return for reward, and mitigate them as appropriate
.Anonymous posters telling us the sky has been falling for the last 40 years aren't especially usefulFreckle said:
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