The Halloween Principle

When is the best time to buy/sell?

I was recently forwarded a study that showed the old stock exchange principle of "Sell in May and go away, Don't come back till St Leger's day (November)" may indeed appear to be true over time.

While I realise that there are many influences on markets that have nothing to do with Xmas feel goods or the moon and tides etc, I was wondering if any of the highly active long term investors and analysts have noticed any similar sentiments in the property market during "normal" or non boom years.

When is the best time to sell/buy and what yearly events, if any, influence the market.

For example I would have thought that Jan/Feb would be a good time to buy as credit card bills from xmas splurges would make sellers think twice about hanging around for a better price while reducing the pool of buyers.

However a RE Agent I spoke to disagrees, he says Jan Feb is the perfect time to sell, particularly in our region (SW WA), as many people are overcome by the holiday feel good factor and are more likely to visualise themselves living in an "ideal" destination rather than somewhere where the "real" things, facilities etc. may be better.

I'd be interested to know if there is indeed a general trend or if it is different in particular sub sections of the property market.

Thanks. BH
 
Yeah I am sure these sayings all have some basis, be they perceived or real. But this is an American saying and there are a number of influencing factors that differ to Australia
1) Financial year ends 31Dec and not 31Jun
2) They are in summer we are in winter

I am sure there are more and then you have the investor who is a contrarian who would just love people to do just that, hence be buying in May and selling on St Ledgers Day :D
 
IF you were trying to sell more than one IP, to me it would be sensible to stagger their sales over two financial years to lessen CGT liabilities.

This would mean selling the first in Feb/March (with an allowance to June if you can't sell) and the second after June 30.

Peter
 
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