the original explanation was that it was the banks refusing to write the letters, not the customers cancelling orders.
Thnings are slowing a lot quicker than I thought!
- Thread starter sash
- Start date
the original explanation was that it was the banks refusing to write the letters, not the customers cancelling orders.
the new rail expansion should soak up some good supplies. pretty hard to kill demand in an economy growing at 9%+
can't answer that, but this is interesting:
http://www.business.nsw.gov.au/aboutnsw/climate/a7_ind_structure.htm
mining isn't actually as big a part of the economy as it is perceived, hence why this treament of the AUD as a commodity currency is a bit of a joke. The employment it generates is limited and the profits are mostly directed to foreign ownership anyway.
that page is only discussing the NSW economy, no? correct me if I am wrong, but aren't WA and SA the main mining areas? I'm still fairly new to aus, soi my geography might be a bit off...
Here are the stats for QLD coal output and sales for 2008 to date.
http://www.dme.qld.gov.au/zone_files/coal_stats_pdf/quarter_1_08.pdf
In this report it shows China does not even make it into the top 10 list of purchases
Japan buys 17x more
Korea and India buy 8x more
Even Italy, Spain and the Netherlands buy more coal than China.
This article from Business Spectator says
http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-dim-view-of-China-KNQTX?OpenDocument&src=kgb
So, coking coal use reduced through Asia excluding Japan.
The entire amount of coking coal, not a reduced amount, equates to about 18% of QLD exports, so if it halved QLD exports would drop by approx 9%
Hardly sounds like disaster for QLD at this stage.
No guarantee that the figures are correct, anyone is welcome to go over them for me
http://www.dme.qld.gov.au/zone_files/coal_stats_pdf/quarter_1_08.pdf
In this report it shows China does not even make it into the top 10 list of purchases
Japan buys 17x more
Korea and India buy 8x more
Even Italy, Spain and the Netherlands buy more coal than China.
This article from Business Spectator says
http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-dim-view-of-China-KNQTX?OpenDocument&src=kgb
So, coking coal use reduced through Asia excluding Japan.
The entire amount of coking coal, not a reduced amount, equates to about 18% of QLD exports, so if it halved QLD exports would drop by approx 9%
Hardly sounds like disaster for QLD at this stage.
No guarantee that the figures are correct, anyone is welcome to go over them for me
Completely missed the most important part of the article, which suggests a massive worldwide slowdown, from one of the world's largest investment banks. No individual crackpot economist views there.
Steel factories right across the world are slashing production due to the realisation that they do not have as many customers/demand for their product to be profitable. No point importing further coking coal or iron ore if there is reduced demand for the steel they are producing. This has started to happen in the last month or two, not in the 1st quarter, or even 2nd quarter of this year.
e.g. http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1196626
Those coal shipping figures are way out of date already. Since then it has adjusted to a very much reduced profits for the miners. Look at the materials index then compared to now, back then there was the expectation that mining stocks would "save us". That view has changed.
Now when contracts come up for renewal they will be negotiated at lower prices, or for less goods shipped.
The suggestion that Japan is somehow isolated is silly, if anything it will be the worst! Japan is close to recession, and is a heavily export driven economy. Even as a basic example, new vehicle sales here have slowed significantly here, and in larger markets such as the US it's fallen off a cliff. Why would Japanese steel mills need more raw products to make steel, if there are no manufacturers buying the steel to turn into vehicles and other similar items across multiple countries due to a global recession?
The results will take a while to flow through. Wait 12 months.
Steel factories right across the world are slashing production due to the realisation that they do not have as many customers/demand for their product to be profitable. No point importing further coking coal or iron ore if there is reduced demand for the steel they are producing. This has started to happen in the last month or two, not in the 1st quarter, or even 2nd quarter of this year.
e.g. http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1196626
Those coal shipping figures are way out of date already. Since then it has adjusted to a very much reduced profits for the miners. Look at the materials index then compared to now, back then there was the expectation that mining stocks would "save us". That view has changed.
Now when contracts come up for renewal they will be negotiated at lower prices, or for less goods shipped.
The suggestion that Japan is somehow isolated is silly, if anything it will be the worst! Japan is close to recession, and is a heavily export driven economy. Even as a basic example, new vehicle sales here have slowed significantly here, and in larger markets such as the US it's fallen off a cliff. Why would Japanese steel mills need more raw products to make steel, if there are no manufacturers buying the steel to turn into vehicles and other similar items across multiple countries due to a global recession?
The results will take a while to flow through. Wait 12 months.
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But even you are only talking a reduction in coking coal used for steel.
Thermal used for electricity is still going to happen and more than likely increase.
While those figures may be out of date by a few months do you have any more up to date ones?
Unfortunately they are not available 
hence my point at the end "The results will take a while to flow through. Wait 12 months.". The main problem is that we (anybody) needs to look forward at the environment in 6-12 months time, not necessarily looking at immediate data that is available now.
I know that is difficult to say with any certainty, and is prone to error, but things seem to be changing to the downside for our large export items such as Iron Ore and Coal.
At the moment we need to take a bit of a look what is happening on the global stage now, and try and predict at least what *may* be happening in future with commodity prices and what miners will be able to sell, their price, and the volume.
Maybe it's been overstated now, but this is really what has been driving markets down worldwide (China, Korea, Europe, Japan included). A reduced demand, for nearly everything is being factored in.
Thermal coal probably is more stable, however you would need to consider that with reduced industrial development, the need for electricity/energy to power more and more factories to produce items, new homes (or in general expansionary activities) in places such as China may be reduced somewhat as well.
Long-term I am really hopeful that a sustained commodities boom will continue well into the next decade, but at the moment, it all looks a bit dark for the next couple of years at least. Just trying to be realist here, I would prefer it didn't happen either.
Trying to be positive, it could well be to our benefit longer term as well. China, realising how much they have been reliant on the US to provide the inflows for their growth, may look towards other markets, and being less reliant on that in future. So in turn eventually their own economy can become more resilient, and less prone to weakness in future years. Which of course, Australia will be the beneficiary of.
hence my point at the end "The results will take a while to flow through. Wait 12 months.". The main problem is that we (anybody) needs to look forward at the environment in 6-12 months time, not necessarily looking at immediate data that is available now. I know that is difficult to say with any certainty, and is prone to error, but things seem to be changing to the downside for our large export items such as Iron Ore and Coal.
At the moment we need to take a bit of a look what is happening on the global stage now, and try and predict at least what *may* be happening in future with commodity prices and what miners will be able to sell, their price, and the volume.
Maybe it's been overstated now, but this is really what has been driving markets down worldwide (China, Korea, Europe, Japan included). A reduced demand, for nearly everything is being factored in.
Thermal coal probably is more stable, however you would need to consider that with reduced industrial development, the need for electricity/energy to power more and more factories to produce items, new homes (or in general expansionary activities) in places such as China may be reduced somewhat as well.
Long-term I am really hopeful that a sustained commodities boom will continue well into the next decade, but at the moment, it all looks a bit dark for the next couple of years at least. Just trying to be realist here, I would prefer it didn't happen either.
Trying to be positive, it could well be to our benefit longer term as well. China, realising how much they have been reliant on the US to provide the inflows for their growth, may look towards other markets, and being less reliant on that in future. So in turn eventually their own economy can become more resilient, and less prone to weakness in future years. Which of course, Australia will be the beneficiary of.
i realise that it might have no relevance ... but looking at the exchange rate of aud and canada dollars against the usd - aud is around 60c and can$ is around 77c.
so contracting asian markets would mean that coal purchasers would shop for the better $/tonne/quality price ... wonder what the canadians are selling at?
so contracting asian markets would mean that coal purchasers would shop for the better $/tonne/quality price ... wonder what the canadians are selling at?
Which gets back to what I am saying, for QLD, China was never a big player in coal, only about 3% in total thermal and coking.
Chinas slowdown will hardly affect QJD resources according to published figures.
I realise that othe nations combined will have an affect, but I think WA's red dirt is more of an issue than the Black is here.
So Aus would be looking better.
I also think Aus is closer and Asia has closer ties to Aus. than Canada, so that should help with the decisions.
no the total for Oz is on the right hand side
with the AUD nearly halved we can cut output by 50% and still be no worse off. Tho I cant see the USD strength lasting too long - high USD in this environment is as silly as a wheel
Potential ? currently lots of companies drilling little holes in the ground looking for stuff.South Australia? What have they got?
Bit of GAS, bit of Uranium, bit of gold.
South Australia? What have they got?
At Olympic Dam they've got the world's fourth largest remaining copper deposit, fifth largest gold deposit and the largest uranium deposit. It also contains significant quantities of silver.
Might be worth something one day....
Sadly today l witnessed 30 people being told their jobs finish in 1 months time.
I did expect this but in 6 months time and not to the extent of today.Its hitting a lot faster than a lot may have expected.
No not mining jobs. But a job is a job is a job.
Sad day indeed
cheers
yadreamin
I did expect this but in 6 months time and not to the extent of today.Its hitting a lot faster than a lot may have expected.
No not mining jobs. But a job is a job is a job.
Sad day indeed
cheers
yadreamin
In Mandurah or Perth...?
