Fair enough unemployment is the biggest risk so we'll have to see where that heads. Last I heard it jumped from 5.6 to 6.1.
But I'm still hopeful and almost 3% for the year so far.
Next 3-6 months will be telling!
It staggers me how they come up with these figures.
In Victoria in the last 2 years, there have been a large number of closures of businesses and many redundancies.
The building industry has been hit quite hard across the board, r/e is down so you know many agents have been shed from the crop, retail stores, even places like Coles etc.
The only hope of any possible lean towards a rise in employment would be an increase in part-time and casual jobs, which may have absorbed the total of full-time and part time permanent jobs lost.
I am no shopper, so when I go to malls I notice things, and I can tell you that in the past month or so, the 3 malls that I had the unfortunate displeasure to have to visit; they were largely empty compared to years gone past that I can remember.
I just received a newsletter from Prushka Debt Recoverers, and their report on 2012 - was bad, across the board...."Generally, businesses were in contraction mode. Expenditure that could be deferred was deferred and the focus was on cutting costs rather than on growing the business". It's easy and glib to say that they should be spending money on trying to grow the business etc.
Yeah; this is anecdotal, but we always hear the official spin in the media and from the Gubb who want to paint a better than bad pic for future votes; not the reality.