What do you think of Trinity, Alkimos WA?

Terry Ryder article below.


Outer suburbs continue to out-perform "prime" areas
By Terry Ryder, 16th October 2008


The common belief that expensive inner-city suburbs always out-perform cheaper outer-lying suburbs is the greatest myth in real estate.

There's no statistical basis to the claim that the "better suburbs" close to the city are the safest investments and are better at resisting downturns.

In fact, the figures prove it wrong. I call it The Myth of Prime Out-performance. It's a mantra for property professionals, who have repeated it so often it's come to be accepted as truth by many investors.


However, the myth of prime out-performance has become widespread throughout the real estate industry and subsequently deeply entrenched in investors' minds.

The key thing about the claim of superior performance by prime suburbs is those who make it never support it with figures. They have an attitude but they don't have an argument. The reason they don't back it up with data is that the facts contradict them.

So what they are saying is wrong... what are you saying in stead which right which we could learn from ?
 
The key thing about the claim of superior performance by prime suburbs is those who make it never support it with figures. They have an attitude but they don't have an argument. The reason they don't back it up with data is that the facts contradict them.

so... where are the facts? And does he deny the performance of yanchep vs inner city from 2007 till present?
 
So what they are saying is wrong... what are you saying in stead which right which we could learn from ?

What?????. I agree with Terry Ryder. We could learn from him instead of following the myth that "expensive inner-city suburbs always out-perform cheaper outer-lying suburbs".
 
Outer suburbs continue to out-perform "prime" areas

so... where are the facts? And does he deny the performance of yanchep vs inner city from 2007 till present?

Ausprop what about Floreat against Butler......2001 to 2011 !!!.

I think if picking an individual suburbs you can always find a statistic to support your case, especially when you pick a period of only 4 years.

When Terry Ryder and Margaret Lomas both believe the outer suburbs out perform inner city areas surely you need to take notice?.
 
What?????. I agree with Terry Ryder. We could learn from him instead of following the myth that "expensive inner-city suburbs always out-perform cheaper outer-lying suburbs".

I know you agree with him

so what is he actually saying with proof that those perpetuating the "myth" aren't saying ?

I think if picking an individual suburbs you can always find a statistic to support your case, especially when you pick a period of only 4 years.

I "suspect" that applies to Terry Ryder also, hence we are asking for the proof / examples you suggest should accomany such claims.

I don't know either way mate. I will need to buy somethig else soon to accomplish anything, so I am keen to learn.

But just cause someone says something contrary to the masses, doesn't mean it has to be right either....
 
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Ausprop what about Floreat against Butler......2001 to 2011 !!!.

I think if picking an individual suburbs you can always find a statistic to support your case, especially when you pick a period of only 4 years.

When Terry Ryder and Margaret Lomas both believe the outer suburbs out perform inner city areas surely you need to take notice?.

wasn't butler a new build tho? If I whacked a new 4x2 on a block in floreat you would be looking at $2.4m. don't confuse development risk with market risk.

i think the suburbs I picked could be broadly replicated across other similarly located ones.

as for terry rider, I don't really know anything about him. Lomas said somehting intelligent on TV the other day so I would have to pay her some respect but you need to look at what she said specifically and which city, which timeframe and the context of it. To go and buy in trinity because rider and lomas said so is dangerous.

hey I could be wrong, go buy in the boondocks if you like, however my own experience has shown me where I have won and lost and it will take more than a newcastle spruiker to make me change my mind
 
From an earlier post

Homeswest Housing Zones- Metro Map

The Department of Housing has three metropolitan regions and seven country regions. The metropolitan regions are divided into zones and the country regions by towns.



Though don't forget, Homeswest can and do, source rentals from the private market also for their tenants, as well as assist them with Bonds to get into a private rental.

Homeswest also provide KEYSTART (amongst many others) to enable home ownership for tenants which do not quality for public rental assistance, but who cannot obtain private sector finance.

Public Housing Disgrace (Butler)
 
Redwing your point is????.........for goodness sake Subiaco, East Perth, West Perth, Wembley, Hillary's and North Beach are on the list of Homeswest areas. The incident in Butler happens everywhere even in non Homeswest areas. If this is what you base your investments on that's fine. Each to there own.
 
1 in 10 houses in WA are state housing commission. They are trying to spread them out.

It isn’t just about buying close into the city. It is about buying in areas that are about to go through a demographic enhancement. This is where research is more the key.
 
wasn't butler a new build tho? If I whacked a new 4x2 on a block in floreat you would be looking at $2.4m. don't confuse development risk with market risk.

hey I could be wrong, go buy in the boondocks if you like, however my own experience has shown me where I have won and lost and it will take more than a newcastle spruiker to make me change my mind

Ausprop, so I chose to do a new build in Butler and you chose to buy a house in Floreat in 2001. That was the investment choices we made. By 2011 my Butler property had out performed your Floreat property. So clearly in this case doing an investment in the boondocks was better than a investment in an inner city premium suburb. That's a fact!!.....add it to your experience you talk about above. The biggest laugh is you were so blinded in your beliefs that when you posted your Floreat figures after I had posted my Butler figures, you automatically thought the Floreat property had out performed the Butler property. Obviously you were blinded by the dollars involved with the Floreat property and did not look at the actual performance of both properties.
 
1 in 10 houses in WA are state housing commission. They are trying to spread them out.

It isn’t just about buying close into the city. It is about buying in areas that are about to go through a demographic enhancement. This is where research is more the key.

So yu're suggesting Kent ,it might also not be as simple NOT buying clsoe to the city and buying in say Bulter without research either ?


INXS, instead of geting defensive, why dont you share what convinced you on Butler so that we can review it too ? But just "Terry said so" isn't enough on it's own, as we're a curious bunch
 
The biggest laugh is you were so blinded in your beliefs that when you posted your Floreat figures after I had posted my Butler figures, you automatically thought the Floreat property had out performed the Butler property. Obviously you were blinded by the dollars involved with the Floreat property and did not look at the actual performance of both properties.

i was aware of the %'s... I just didn't think everyone would get so defensive. i sold the place 10 years ago so do I really care? (regret yes!). the beauty of the floreat place was it was double rented, so CF neutral.

I don't pretend inner city areas don't crash either. i saw swanbourne sink 40% in the GFC. however, I also saw more affordable suburbs such as EVP and kensington rise thru the GFC... now that's a strong performance! whilst my properties dropped 25-40% my mates were wondering what 'GFC' stood for and refinancing their houses to buy a car whilste they were cheap
 
INXS, instead of geting defensive, why dont you share what convinced you on Butler so that we can review it too ? But just "Terry said so" isn't enough on it's own, as we're a curious bunch

I have'nt just said Terry said so....I have given the example of the investment property I own there. Also I have done a couple of new builds there where I made 150k profit on one by the time it was built and 60k profit on another. Butler property has held it own during the GFC and is worth about the same as it was before the GFC began. The demand in the suburb is driven by overseas migrants who enjoy the beautiful lakes, parks and facilities in the suburb and the locality near the beach. This demand is likely to increase as we go in to the next "boom". The new Butler railway station will be finished in 2012, providing easy public transport access to the city (35-40 minutes). A shopping centre the size of Joondalup shopping centre is being built surrounding the rail station which will include restaurants, cinema's etc.

So Jaycee In my book it ticks my boxes for future demand, upcoming infrastructure and being close to the coast. I believe this will drive price growth in the future. Of course this is just my opinion and you may have different criteria you look at when deciding where to buy.
 
i was aware of the %'s... I just didn't think everyone would get so defensive. i sold the place 10 years ago so do I really care? (regret yes!). the beauty of the floreat place was it was double rented, so CF neutral.

I don't pretend inner city areas don't crash either. i saw swanbourne sink 40% in the GFC. however, I also saw more affordable suburbs such as EVP and kensington rise thru the GFC... now that's a strong performance! whilst my properties dropped 25-40% my mates were wondering what 'GFC' stood for and refinancing their houses to buy a car whilste they were cheap

Ausprop, I think it comes down to you having lost 25-40% on what I assume are outer southern suburbs and Yanchep. Just like you mention that all inner city areas don't perform the same way I would argue that the same applies to outer areas.
 
I have'nt just said Terry said so....I have given the example of the investment property I own there. Also I have done a couple of new builds there where I made 150k profit on one by the time it was built and 60k profit on another. Butler property has held it own during the GFC and is worth about the same as it was before the GFC began. The demand in the suburb is driven by overseas migrants who enjoy the beautiful lakes, parks and facilities in the suburb and the locality near the beach. This demand is likely to increase as we go in to the next "boom". The new Butler railway station will be finished in 2012, providing easy public transport access to the city (35-40 minutes). A shopping centre the size of Joondalup shopping centre is being built surrounding the rail station which will include restaurants, cinema's etc.

So Jaycee In my book it ticks my boxes for future demand, upcoming infrastructure and being close to the coast. I believe this will drive price growth in the future. Of course this is just my opinion and you may have different criteria you look at when deciding where to buy.

Why are you so defensive etc in your replies ?

You gave one example of one house.

Surely there are lots of examples of the other way around

1 house doens;t convince me 100% jsut like it wouldnt; convince you.

No problem, you don't ahve to convince anyone, let alone me, but you started talking about this and got me interested, I htought I might see some interesting figures which open my eyes. but I've seen 1 off examples of differnt thigns beofre.. I know someon who bought a block in / around Bayswater (huge block for retirement vilalges) at a n almost stupidly low price, does that mean that all of Bayswater lost that much value ? I'd suggst not.
 
Ausprop, I think it comes down to you having lost 25-40% on what I assume are outer southern suburbs and Yanchep. Just like you mention that all inner city areas don't perform the same way I would argue that the same applies to outer areas.

I remember when I sold yanchep, it was just as the GFC began to bite... Dec 2007. I was hoping for $600k and the agent told me to grab the $500k - she is prominent in butler and was relaying some dreadful stories of what property was doing in that suburb and it was on that basis i took it and gees I am glad I did. The problem with outlying suburbs is (a) new stock is always superior to second hand stock (b) large developers can drastically slash land prices (capricorn jv, mirvac, satterly all did it) (c) there is no scarcity (d) there is no compression of demand. it can work well in a boom market when you score some development margin, inflation increases your repalcement costs and developers ramp up the land component... but none of these are a given.

anyway this is getting ridiculous, an "I love/hate Butler" thread!

FWIW, Butler has underperformed the perth median average for the past few years, which is surprising as any new build area should outperform on raw numbers by a significant margin. Let's check, say, Atwell... yes that has outperformed as you would expect
 
Why are you so defensive etc in your replies ?

You gave one example of one house.

Surely there are lots of examples of the other way around

1 house doens;t convince me 100% jsut like it wouldnt; convince you.

No problem, you don't ahve to convince anyone, let alone me, but you started talking about this and got me interested, I htought I might see some interesting figures which open my eyes. but I've seen 1 off examples of differnt thigns beofre.. I know someon who bought a block in / around Bayswater (huge block for retirement vilalges) at a n almost stupidly low price, does that mean that all of Bayswater lost that much value ? I'd suggst not.

OMG!!!. You asked me "INXS,why dont you share what convinced you on Butler". So I did. I've made money on 3 houses there and think there's future growth based on what I have said. These are 3 actual examples that I did. I can only relate to you my personal experience.
 
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