wow, just read perth listings shed about 500 properties this week and are now in the 12,000's. Years ago this was considered a balanced market - I'd say these days it's a sellers market. With a hot rental market, construction dead in the water and falling listings this is turning around pretty quickly indeed
What do you think will be the best Capital City for growth/less affected by downturn?
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Ausprop,
Isn't it funny that Perth people reckon Perth will be it....Sydney people reckon Sydney will be it and Newcastle people reckon Newcastle will be it.
I'd be very surprised if rents are going up stronger than what WA is experiencing at present. This uplift in yield will give confidence to investors to re-enter the market and push prices further still.
I remember going to a Michael Yardney seminar 3 years back where he said there will be only one more big CG push forward in the coming 5 or 6 yr cycle.....thereafter it'll all go to custard, with no further prospect of CG.
I found that prediction very strange indeed at the time, but if all my stuff surges again to new heights, it will be sorely tempting to jump ship and offload the lot and let some other poor sod carry the risk can for a while. If it gets to that, I'll be hard pressed to see it going up wave after wave, especially with the Banks changed policy of late.
Another vote for Newcastle. The place has been a little slower than normal, but the premium suburbs are always humming along nicely.
Units in Cooks Hill and the CBD, houses in Merewether and the inner ring areas like New Lambton and Adamstown.
Units in Cooks Hill and the CBD, houses in Merewether and the inner ring areas like New Lambton and Adamstown.
I hear you - tho if you had asked me a year or 2 ago I think my sentiment was quite different on Perth, so I don't think I am just championing home grown prejudices. There seems to be a serious buzz and it's across the spectrum - sales/rentals/inability to bring supply to market. even as micro focussed as just the houses in my burb... running hot and not much left at all.
Yeah, saw an article the other day saying that a nett 500 residential properties had been sold in Perth, reducing the stock levels down to 12,000 which is balanced apparently.
It doesn't take long for things to go in one direction or the other in Perth nowadays.
This time last year, the CBD vacancy rate was about 10.5% and so called experts were warning with BHP set to move into their new digs, and literally have 30 or 40 separate offices scattered all over the CBD all set to become vacant due to that consolidation, they were predicting a vacancy rate of about 13% for now.....very much a good thing for Tenants and a disaster for Landlords.
As it turns out, the demand for space has been huge, and instead of increasing from 10.5 to 13.0% over 12 months, we've seen vacancy rates drop from 10.5 down to 1.8% !!!
The experts got it completely wrong. This predictive game the analysts and economists play really is a complete w**k.
Suffice to say, the Tenants are paying slightly more for the rent than what they had planned on.....yippee.
It doesn't take long for things to go in one direction or the other in Perth nowadays.
This time last year, the CBD vacancy rate was about 10.5% and so called experts were warning with BHP set to move into their new digs, and literally have 30 or 40 separate offices scattered all over the CBD all set to become vacant due to that consolidation, they were predicting a vacancy rate of about 13% for now.....very much a good thing for Tenants and a disaster for Landlords.
As it turns out, the demand for space has been huge, and instead of increasing from 10.5 to 13.0% over 12 months, we've seen vacancy rates drop from 10.5 down to 1.8% !!!
The experts got it completely wrong. This predictive game the analysts and economists play really is a complete w**k.
Suffice to say, the Tenants are paying slightly more for the rent than what they had planned on.....yippee.
I'll be tempted to buy soon in Perth I think
I reckon once I reach my $20 K savings goal (in approx 12-18 months time) I'll be tempted to buy again! But this time I'll make sure that the loan will cover all the other expenses, not just for the property itself. I wont touch any of my savings next time. I've learnt my lesson. Also I dont want to buy something too negatively geared. Both IP's will have to be closer to neutral too before I buy again.
I think I'd be missing an opportunity if I dont buy again in the next couple of years as I've heard Perth pretty much moves in boom or bust cycles. So I'd be happier if can hold 3 properties through Perths next boom period rather than just the 2. I have to make sure I can afford it though and thats the number 1 priority. I dont want to have to be in the same situation again and have to move back to my parents if im struggling.
I reckon once I reach my $20 K savings goal (in approx 12-18 months time) I'll be tempted to buy again! But this time I'll make sure that the loan will cover all the other expenses, not just for the property itself. I wont touch any of my savings next time. I've learnt my lesson. Also I dont want to buy something too negatively geared. Both IP's will have to be closer to neutral too before I buy again.
I think I'd be missing an opportunity if I dont buy again in the next couple of years as I've heard Perth pretty much moves in boom or bust cycles. So I'd be happier if can hold 3 properties through Perths next boom period rather than just the 2. I have to make sure I can afford it though and thats the number 1 priority. I dont want to have to be in the same situation again and have to move back to my parents if im struggling.
Looks like it will have an impact primarily on NEW properties only. Established properties will have their existing $7000 grant canceled!!! WTF?
should stimulate things!
The talk of downturn is due to china showing a lot of signs of slowing down.
China's growth doubles WA's growth, so china's slowdown will .... you get the picture.
It's not Sydney.
Woy and Umina on the peninsular are within easy commute to Sydney by train and car (the same distance as Liverpool and Penrith, roughly) but the sales prices history indicates that they are a different market.
Very different demographic too: the Central Coast was always where people went to retire, or to holiday.
Having said that, different parts of Sydney are fairing very differently too, so talking about "Sydney" as one market is a gross simplification.
I heard somebody recently referring to the hem of a woman's skirt as being at Budgewoi. When I asked what they meant they said it was just north of The Entrance. Boom-tish.
has to be perth
Perth is the one I think, WA has by far and away the most economic activity going for it.
Sydney's property price is driven by immigration and yes they are trying to stop the sprawl but in doing that they will encourage upwards development and this could negate an growth in land values.
Perth is the one I think, WA has by far and away the most economic activity going for it.
Sydney's property price is driven by immigration and yes they are trying to stop the sprawl but in doing that they will encourage upwards development and this could negate an growth in land values.
Where is Newcastle, I vote for Newcastle!
Industrial land in Perth.....hang on a minute.....
http://www.colliers.com.au/sitecore...roperty/Commercial_Retail_and_Industrial.aspx
This one just sold for 3.5m, so over $ 600 per sqm of land. Zippety doo-dah !! That's gotta be good.
Rents have jumped between 25 and 30% as well since last year.
With the Perth CBD vacancy rate at ~ 1.8% (very very low) the capital growth rates and rental jumps are going off like a frog-in-a-sock as well.
Joy to the world......what's a downturn ??
I left out heaps of options when making the poll, still interesting to hear peoples opinions though, feel free to make a comment then if your option isn't listed!
So what you are saying is that if you had to pick one spot in Australia to invest all your property budget into, it would not be the Central Coast? Would it be in your top five regions?
Just to clarify, this is projected POPULATION growth, not property value growth.
I looked at Umina and Woy Woy for an IP, we wanted positive cash-flow with (modest) prospects for capital growth. Many properties there are selling for LESS than they were bought in 2003.
Some friends of ours have a unit near the beach (at Ettalong I think) they bought 2 years and need to sell (actually owned by mother in law who has just gone into aged care). There are a couple of other units in the same block that have been on the market for 6 months at a price less than they bought for. Not good. Yield is pretty poor too so not worth keeping to rent as investment.
There is a bit of new development around Wyong, like the top of Tuggerah Lake and the bottom of Lake Macquarie which is probably the reason for the growth up there.
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