What do you think will be the best Capital City for growth/less affected by downturn?

[MaxwellSmart]

Ive performed some further data analysis which might be of interest.

By 2036 the Blacktown SLA is forecast to have the most people under the age of 19 in the state.

Wyong - North East is forecast to have more persons under the age of 19 than Sydney SD and the state average.

The remainder of the Central Coast SLAs are forecast to have less people under the age of 19 than Sydney SD and the state average.

The Sydney SLAs of South, North, West, Inner and East have the lowest forecast portion of young persons in the state.

 

[INVSTOR]

How did the capitals fair against my last Somersoft Investor Polls? Any clever person want to do a comparison?
http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=52082&page=5

 

[INVSTOR]

Perth and Sydney are neck and neck, kindof. Maybe there's more NSW supporters on this forum/population.

 

[mrmonopoly]

Would appear BIS Shrapnel are thinking along similar lines to this poll, albeit a slightly different order.

http://www.news.com.au/business/bre...ecast-to-improve/story-e6frfkur-1226407138411

Shame their track record is so terrible, although their forecasts do seem a little more realistic this time round.

 

[Jake Milne]

Now: Sydney
Short Term 5-8years: Perth
Long Term: Melbourne

 

[Ausprop]

Now: Sydney
Short Term 5-8years: Perth
Long Term: Melbourne

Perth is going pretty crazy at the moment - not sure what the figures are saying but that's the real experience on the ground. May stop tho with spain and the carbon tax and steven keen and all that... seems to be the sentiment around here!

 

[sanj]

Perth is going pretty crazy at the moment - not sure what the figures are saying but that's the real experience on the ground. May stop tho with spain and the carbon tax and steven keen and all that... seems to be the sentiment around here!

indeed it is, multiple offers on properties is pretty common, im seeing people overpay for small development sites and also properties selling for more than asking price

 

[HotRod]

Perth listings now down to 12,888 and probably at balanced market levels.

These listings have been steadily decreasing every week for the last couple of months.

I think the upswing is well a truly underway.

This won't be confirmed until the end of July (I think) when the June quarter results come out. By then it'll probably be too late to take action at the bottom of the market. That probably occured in the last month or so.

 

[tess85]

HTW Month in review is in agreement that Perth is in a start of recovery.

 

[Jake Milne]

Agree that buying Perth is a good idea; also agree with the fundamentals comments prior.

Growth has been better in Sydney in recent months hence Sydney being first choice for CG right now.

Perth is showing signs that the market has corrected.
Perth also is also approaching a strong resistance area at $460K (480index) median

Technically this suggests a price stall in the short term until there is enough bullish activity to break the resistance level.

Fundamentally Mining States (Perth inc.) are tipped to perform higher than non-mining areas. Projections estimate an overall 5-8year growth of 22% where as Sydney sits at only 17%.

In the short-mid term Melbourne as a whole will grow by 3-4% but over long term it is tipped to out perform due to population influx.

Hence:
Sydney - Now (short-mid term strategies)
Perth - 5-8years (purchase now if you will)
Melbourne - 10+


*Note: Stats really don't account for much - overall trends and timings are good to keep in mind but as property is a long term investment, if you buy the right property in the right area history tells us that it will perform regardless of fluctuations.

 

[Pete Ramoza]

Nice to have some positive reports Ausprop... I'm banking on Brisbane!

 

[Nathan]

NSW has a solid pent up of demand.

QLD has been hit hard with bargains to be had.

 

[redwing]

NSW has a solid pent up of demand.

QLD has been hit hard with bargains to be had.

It was surprising (or maybe not to some) that Queensland values and/or rentals didn't massively increase after the damaging floods and cyclones

Any ideas what transpired here?

 

[INVSTOR]

It was surprising (or maybe not to some) that Queensland values and/or rentals didn't massively increase after the damaging floods and cyclones

Any ideas what transpired here?

We moved over to Brisbane in the middle of the floods. There really wasnt much work here, my husband applied for heaps of jobs and eventually got some temp work on some flooded rsl clubs. He eventually got a full time job on a big project but there is still not much work around. We live in an area that wasn't affected by flooding. It looks like my rental properties rent has barely moved in the past two years and the property we first rented has just been advertised for the same price when we moved here.

 

[Angel]

Wages are very low in Brisbane compared to other parts of Oz. For example my hubby works in one of the largest IT companies in Australia and their wages were frozen years ago. He hasnt had a pay increase since 2008 and that one was $2000 pa on top of what it was previously. They are very good to their long-term employees, they also employ short-term contractors on backpackers visas for the same or sometimes less than he gets, these are people with two and three degrees.

Another thing is that the flood was over-rated as far as media beat ups go. You kept seeing the same film over and over. In total there were approx 20,ooo properties inundated in the entire Brisbane and Brisbane Valley area, according to the big Wivenhoe report. That is a tiny proportion of all buildings. I realise the damage was awful for those affected, I am saying it was confined to a very small area compared to the total area and population.

I would be interested in other people's perspectives.

 

[norwoodman]

Wages are very low in Brisbane compared to other parts of Oz. For example my hubby works in one of the largest IT companies in Australia and their wages were frozen years ago. He hasnt had a pay increase since 2008 and that one was $2000 pa on top of what it was previously. They are very good to their long-term employees, they also employ short-term contractors on backpackers visas for the same or sometimes less than he gets, these are people with two and three degrees.

It's interesting you mention this point. I guess it depends on which industry you are in as well, I know a lot of people in the engineering and construction industry currently get paid more in Brisbane than they would in Sydney, Melbourne or Adelaide.

 

[INVSTOR]

It's interesting you mention this point. I guess it depends on which industry you are in as well, I know a lot of people in the engineering and construction industry currently get paid more in Brisbane than they would in Sydney, Melbourne or Adelaide.

Really?? How do they survive in the other states? My husband works in construction and he took a massive pay cut moving to Brisbane from Perth. I've had to go back into the workforce after having 12 years off cause we couldn't cope on the low wages.

 

[norwoodman]

Really?? How do they survive in the other states? My husband works in construction and he took a massive pay cut moving to Brisbane from Perth. I've had to go back into the workforce after having 12 years off cause we couldn't cope on the low wages.

It must be more engineers than construction I think. And depends which part of construction since it's such a broad category!

 

[INVSTOR]

It must be more engineers than construction I think. And depends which part of construction since it's such a broad category!

Yes, I would imagine the the trades related to mining activity would be the bettter paid trades in Qld.

 

[INVSTOR]

Exciting times ahead judging by this poll!