In the spirit of Andrew_A's original thread that was started in the middle of the latest boom (and when the index was just above 4000 I believe, I thought it would be interesting to see when everyone thinks we will return to the 4000 level.
Given our market usually takes its cue from the US (especially more apparent in recent weeks) check out what happened during the boom years from 2003 to 2007 and compare it to the more recent trends. From 03 to 07, the DOW went from about 8000 to 14000 (up 62%), while the All Ords went from about 3000 to 6800 (up 127%). Now the all Ords is at 5100 (down 25%) while the DOW is at 12000 (down 14%).
So what does it all mean? Well my thought is that the DOW is only down 14% because of the massive propping-up being done by the Fed plus the Bush economic stimulus packages, whereas in our market we've been getting multiple interest rate rises. However when the weight of the sub-prime losses eventually crashes through the Fed and Bush safety nets, I wouldn't be surprised to see the DOW at sub 10k levels. When that happens, I wonder where the All Ords would be? More importantly, what do you think?
Andrew's original thread is here:
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20359
Given our market usually takes its cue from the US (especially more apparent in recent weeks) check out what happened during the boom years from 2003 to 2007 and compare it to the more recent trends. From 03 to 07, the DOW went from about 8000 to 14000 (up 62%), while the All Ords went from about 3000 to 6800 (up 127%). Now the all Ords is at 5100 (down 25%) while the DOW is at 12000 (down 14%).
So what does it all mean? Well my thought is that the DOW is only down 14% because of the massive propping-up being done by the Fed plus the Bush economic stimulus packages, whereas in our market we've been getting multiple interest rate rises. However when the weight of the sub-prime losses eventually crashes through the Fed and Bush safety nets, I wouldn't be surprised to see the DOW at sub 10k levels. When that happens, I wonder where the All Ords would be? More importantly, what do you think?
Andrew's original thread is here:
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20359
