Which way is the economy heading?

Is our economy

  • Is about to boom

    Votes: 21 11.9%
  • or completely stuffed and worse to come

    Votes: 39 22.2%
  • Going to be as flat as anything

    Votes: 116 65.9%

  • Total voters
    176
Would any of them - or anyone here on SS - stay in a job like that?

Would you call that a "career"? Most wouldn't.

If I enjoyed it, yes. To be honest, I'm hopeful that I can manage my finances such that by the time I reach 45 I can afford to do a job like that with so few hours in a week... perhaps in the garden section, I like plants, I just don't know anything about them :D
 
Well Bayview a job is a job. He does work, gets paid for it. That's the definition of employment. That's good for the economy so long as it is isn't being paid for by the taxpayer. Whether it's a high paying white collar job or not, makes no difference.
Fair enough, I suppose.

It's far too easy though for everyone in a secure, six plus figure job - like so many here in the fishbowl and most Pollies - to simply wave it off..

If I enjoyed it, yes. To be honest, I'm hopeful that I can manage my finances such that by the time I reach 45 I can afford to do a job like that with so few hours in a week... perhaps in the garden section, I like plants, I just don't know anything about them
Yep; quite possible a bloke that age (my age-ish) is happy to do a few hours here and there.

Not so good for the Gen Y'ers saving for the unit in Elwood, though.
 
Fair enough, I suppose.

It's far too easy though for everyone in a secure, six plus figure job - like so many here in the fishbowl and most Pollies - to simply wave it off..

You can't really compare a 6 figure white collar job to someone working at Bunnings. Not everyone wants the same type of work, nor do we need so many.

Not so good for the Gen Y'ers saving for the unit in Elwood, though.

Don't think people who work at Bunnings would be buying property in Elwood on any measure.
 
You can't really compare a 6 figure white collar job to someone working at Bunnings. Not everyone wants the same type of work, nor do we need so many.
It's the attitude I am referring to the have's; who go; "Oh; it's still a job; so what?" from their cosy little existence of more.

Meanwhile, many fulltime jobs are being axed per week, and replaced by subsistence type jobs that folks can't live on.

Don't think people who work at Bunnings would be buying property in Elwood on any measure.
TA DA!

That's sorta my point...

It was a slight dig at the Gen Y'ers for their lack of flexibility in where they want to live these days (want to be in the cafe strips and in a penthouse, etc),

But also to illustrate that if all they can get is a part-time job on bugger-all money; they ain't buying even a run down push-over out in some backwater.

More jobs indeed; separating the have's from the have nots even more....and folks throw stats around going; "Hey; the economy is terrific!!"

Fishbowl life.
 
yawn.

why dont you get out of your fishbowl sometime too? youve been banging on about the struggling economy for years now, just because you arent doing well doesnt mean everyone else is struggling too
 
yawn.

why dont you get out of your fishbowl sometime too? youve been banging on about the struggling economy for years now, just because you arent doing well doesnt mean everyone else is struggling too
You trot that one out every few weeks.

And I then have to explain - again - that what I discuss is not what is happening in my own backyard; it's from talking to a much varied and widespread group of contacts, business owners, customers, friends...

and so on.

Is it anecdotal? Yes.

Doesn't mean it isn't happening.

Just gazing at the monitor and pulling up a few stats charts every now and then doesn't give the whole picture.

You should know that.

By the way; you assume the business is not going that well; but it is still profitable - just not to the extent that I would prefer.

The financial position of my business does not shape my view on everything else economy related - it is merely one aspect of the overall situation around the traps.
 
You trot that one out every few weeks.

And I then have to explain - again - that what I discuss is not what is happening in my own backyard; it's from talking to a much varied and widespread group of contacts, business owners, customers, friends...

and so on.

Is it anecdotal? Yes.

Doesn't mean it isn't happening.

Just gazing at the monitor and pulling up a few stats charts every now and then doesn't give the whole picture.

You should know that.

the issue is youve been saying it for years. years.

only now is it somewhat accurate.

you also trot out many statements that are plainly inaccurate and then find some magical anecdotal way to justify it.

btw, just so im not misunderstanding things, are you genuinely stating that your anecdotes are a more accurate representation than stats by say ABS or other organisations like that?
 
btw, just so im not misunderstanding things, are you genuinely stating that your anecdotes are a more accurate representation than stats by say ABS or other organisations like that?
sigh;

I am saying (again) that stats don't reveal the whole or a truly accurate representation of the picture.

The stats say the economy is growing and all terrific. I say that I hear otherwise from a number of sectors. Doesn't mean I am wrong, or inaccurate.

It is passed on information to me, through general discussions, and I relate it here.

All I'm saying is - take stats with a grain of salt.

You can't rely on only stats to tell you what is going on around you in the Country, Sanj.

For example; the average wage stat, or the average house prices. If you only listened to that, you'd be misinformed.

you also trot out many statements that are plainly inaccurate
Such as?

the issue is youve been saying it for years. years.

only now is it somewhat accurate.
So what are you saying?

Are you saying I am right?

YAHOO!

In fact; I was predicting a few years ago...when everyone was crowing while the mining boom was on.

More recently (last year or so); the dialogue shifted more to a statement of current play.
 
I am saying (again) that stats don't reveal the whole or a truly accurate representation of the picture.
Of course. The stats produced by the ABS are just a sample, they don't have the time to talk to every person in Oz every month. However, they do use the dozens of PhDs to ascertain that they are 95% confident of their results based on a subset of the population. And they do revise their figures when more & better data arrives.

They also take care to ensure they don't suffer from confirmation bias - ie what they personally feel the economy is doing doesn't affect their views.

All I'm saying is - take stats with a grain of salt.
You come across as saying the the ABS should be sacked & govt & industry should listen to anecdotes instead :eek: ?
 
You come across as saying the the ABS should be sacked & govt & industry should listen to anecdotes instead :eek: ?
That wasn't the intention.

The intention is always to illustrate that the stats are the stats, and I have no doubt that they are correct insofar as their numbers, but there is always more story behind just them.

If I had no other knowledge of a particular subject, I would go by the Gubb stats as does everyone else.

But, in this particular instance; I have hundreds of anecdotal discussions to suggest otherwise in many parts of the economy, and I am merely passing them on to say; "Hang on; this is what I've been hearing".

If there are hundreds over the last few years that have a similar theme coming through, then there must be some substance to it.

Or, maybe everyone I talk to is just lying.

And finally; if the stats keep saying - and the Pollies and media keep saying - the economy is all rosey, then why has the Poll on this thread got 65% of the voters saying doom and gloom?
 
But, in this particular instance; I have hundreds of anecdotal discussions to suggest otherwise in many parts of the economy, and I am merely passing them on to say; "Hang on; this is what I've been hearing".

If there are hundreds over the last few years that have a similar theme coming through, then there must be some substance to it.
Not necessarily. If what I was hearing was out of step with reputable sources, I would question if I was suffering from some sort of bias.

And finally; if the stats keep saying - and the Pollies and media keep saying - the economy is all rosey, then why has the Poll on this thread got 65% of the voters saying doom and gloom?
No - 65% said Flat, only 22% said D&G.
 
Interesting.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/risky-business-china-dumps-our-dirty-coal-20140916-3fvpf.html

Australian coal exporters are scrambling to clarify the fallout from changes to China's coal import rules, which could expose the industry to billions of dollars in lost sales as China seeks to cut air pollution.

The Chinese government is to limit the use of imported coal with more than 16 per cent ash and 3 per cent sulphur from January 1, 2015 in a bid to improve air quality, especially in cities such as Beijing and around Shanghai.

At the same time, China is moving to force power utilities to slash coal import volumes, also with the stated aim of improving air quality, although this move will primarily give China's local coalminers a lift.....
 
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They also take care to ensure they don't suffer from confirmation bias - ie what they personally feel the economy is doing doesn't affect their views.

You come across as saying the the ABS should be sacked & govt & industry should listen to anecdotes instead :eek: ?

Rubbish!!

From Peter Martin (h/t edanielsen) today comes a not altogether surprising confession from the ABS about its labour market stats: The Bureau of Statistics has got the official employment figures wrong, and although it is happy to acknowledge the errors, it won't correct them on the official record because it would cost too much money.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/07/abs-fesses-up-on-employment-data/
 
....and;

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has cast doubt on the future quality of its economic data after an accumulated $117 million in deficits left it with barely enough cash to ?keep the lights on?.

The agency is one of up to a dozen government bodies pleading with Treasurer Joe Hockey for an emergency cash top-up before the May budget.

It is understood several government agencies are considering cutting back public services because they are underfunded for the next four years.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/abs_battles_to_keep_lights_on_dpiXziimSPe6cCdS0cD51N

If the quality of future data is in doubt then given the resource shortages that surely puts a somewhat large question mark over previous and current quality of data releases.

What conclusions are drawn from ABS data has a lot to do with how it's collected, who or what it's collected from, what's ruled in and what's ruled out and finally what model you run it through. Govt's are notorious for manipulating every aspect of data collection and analysis to support their narrative of the day.

If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck then it's more than likely a duck. I'll take Bayview's anecdotal assumptions over govt released data any day.
 
the issue is youve been saying it for years. years.

only now is it somewhat accurate.

It's been accurate for years. You haven't been watching and my guess is that what you do see you understand even less.

The reality is the real crash has been developing since 1971. Govt's, banksters and bureaucrats have done a pretty good job of juicing the patient to the point many think nothing is wrong.

Even a terminally ill patient can look good right up till the time they die. 1929 was called years in advance but eternal optimists bagged anyone who talked down the economy. When it did crash it crashed over 3 years.

2008 wasn't even a blip compared to what's coming. 80% either won't believe it will happen or even see it coming. It's here now but you won't be a believer until it touches you personally.
 
Anecdotally majority of regional is doing badly, metropolitan area however is going great guns.
Spoke with a number of accountants in the last couple of weeks from just south of me up to the border - those who derive their business from regional areas are suffering - loss of professional jobs from places like Port, Coffs, Grafton, and Lismore are having flow on effects through the local economies. Those who have fair to good exposure to the metropolitan areas (either through service delivery or product) are doing well.
Most of the businesses are optimistic for the medium to long term and are hoping to ride out conditions until a change in Federal Govt - I'm not sure if they're aware that it's a structural change that's occurred and that the kind of assistance they received in the past isn't going to come around for a very long time.

Also while healthcare as an industry is "booming" in this area (especially geriatricians) the margins are going backwards from what I've seen on various books. Might just be our area, but when I hear medicare local are cutting their rates here by $300 plus per day on most contracts that's generally a Fed level directive.
 
The Australian Bureau of Statistics has cast doubt on the future quality of its economic data after an accumulated $117 million in deficits left it with barely enough cash to ?keep the lights on?.

The agency is one of up to a dozen government bodies pleading with Treasurer Joe Hockey for an emergency cash top-up before the May budget.

It is understood several government agencies are considering cutting back public services because they are underfunded for the next four years.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/abs_battles_to_keep_lights_on_dpiXziimSPe6cCdS0cD51N

If the quality of future data is in doubt then given the resource shortages that surely puts a somewhat large question mark over previous and current quality of data releases.

What conclusions are drawn from ABS data has a lot to do with how it's collected, who or what it's collected from, what's ruled in and what's ruled out and finally what model you run it through. Govt's are notorious for manipulating every aspect of data collection and analysis to support their narrative of the day.

If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck then it's more than likely a duck. I'll take Bayview's anecdotal assumptions over govt released data any day.
The ABS acknowledges its data & published stats have a margin for error - they publish that margin - in the case of the labour stats they publish their 95% confidence range. That is the nature of a sample and not a full census.

Re the how/what/who is collected - the ABS publishes their methodology and keeps it consistent (with some exceptions which are considered as improvements). They publish the raw figures, so what's ruled out and what model you run is not a relevant factor.

The ANZ job ads series correlates well with the ABS labour market stats - are they too part of this govt data manipulation ?

And perhaps you'd like to let us know what confidence level you have of your anecdotes, the sample size you use & what methodology you use to acquire them ?
 
I actually do believe that the difference between the have and the have nots is increasing, and that this is largely a factor of companies deciding to outsource (either overseas or to contractors), or employ part-time, which makes the lack of job security a huge issue for those employed in these areas. At the moment I'm fortunate to fall on the right side of the divide, but it doesn't mean I don't see the problem (as I perceive it) for what it is.
 
The ABS acknowledges its data & published stats have a margin for error - they publish that margin - in the case of the labour stats they publish their 95% confidence range. That is the nature of a sample and not a full census.

Re the how/what/who is collected - the ABS publishes their methodology and keeps it consistent (with some exceptions which are considered as improvements). They publish the raw figures, so what's ruled out and what model you run is not a relevant factor.

The ANZ job ads series correlates well with the ABS labour market stats - are they too part of this govt data manipulation ?

And perhaps you'd like to let us know what confidence level you have of your anecdotes, the sample size you use & what methodology you use to acquire them ?

Again rubbish. ABS data comes from a multitude of sources depending on the category. Labour stats for example are not simply a small sampling they are substantially comprehensive across a broad range of sources. Getting called out on gross errors not your claimed "within a margin of error" is no small thing.

Throw in a substantially underfunded agency and all product from them becomes questionable.

as in...

More evidence has emerged that the data surrounding foreign purchases of Australian property is highly unreliable, with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) admitting to the House of Representatives inquiry that it relies on trade magazines and newspapers to keep track of foreign activity in Australian real estate, whilst also admitting that its estimates of foreign investment is "very conservative".

I suppose it keeps a few Phd's gainfully employed (sigh)

...and don't get me started on bankster generated reports.
 
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