Who saw this coming?

[starter]

It's foolish to look at any capital city in Australia and judge it as a whole.

It's the same as looking at the share market as a whole and deciding that there isn't any good investment in a given industry.

The overall property market is made up of many micro markets. You just have to know where to look in Melbourne and where to avoid...

Pretty much this. Good quality properties, in good suburbs, purchased at a reasonable price would have even gone up the last couple of years.

Based on recent bank valuations, my 2 properties in the inner ring, have gone up 5% pa in the last 18 months. Not spectacular but far from falling off a cliff.

If you bought an OTP apartment in one of the numerous developments though, that's a different story.

 

[Ausprop]

Perhaps there is a lesson in all this and that is "take some money off the table".
I was fortunate enough to offload all my Melb properties prior to the downturn.

Wish I had offloaded some of my Perth properties during the boom but my mindset then was just to accumulate property with no end plan.... Lesson learnt...

MTR

it's weird how you fall into the mindset of the times. which begs the question, should we swim against the tide now?

 

[MTR]

Hi Aus
I only buy for cashflow now so any time is a good time if it stacks up.

MTR

 

[Sunfish]

I tend to find Hobart movements are largely based on what's happening with gvt stimulus, developments etc. As it's so small, things can change quite quickly. But not enough drivers for any significant growth really :S

I think you are being polite Jenn. Tas, to Aus is as Greece to the ECU. They know they can do as they please and the North Is will pick up the tab.

 

[natedog]

it's weird how you fall into the mindset of the times. which begs the question, should we swim against the tide now?

It is a really good question!

I remember just before the GFC hit, mortgage rates were up round 9%...

Talk was higher rates to come...

I remember then having a mini freak out....should we sell and make some modest gains on a property to take the pressure off the cash flow.

Then bang...interest rates dropped, Melbourne had a mini boom and the property I was looking at selling could have been sold at the peak about $100k more...

I try not to be influenced by the "noise" and base everything on the boring long term trend....but it's a challenge sometimes not to get caught up in the "mood of the times"

 

[MTR]

That's a good point, I actually think those that get caught up in the "noise" will actually miss out on the great opportunities.

I understand many will see this as foolish, however I refuse to get caught up in the so called "doom and gloom" mentality. I truly believe a successful investor does not get influenced by this stuff.

MTR

 

[natedog]

That's a good point, I actually think those that get caught up in the "noise" will actually miss out on the great opportunities.

I understand many will see this as foolish, however I refuse to get caught up in the so called "doom and gloom" mentality. I truly believe a successful investor does not get influenced by this stuff.

MTR

Ditto for me

 

[BayView]

it's weird how you fall into the mindset of the times. which begs the question, should we swim against the tide now?

Warren Buffett said "I buy my straw hats in winter"

So, this might be a good time to be looking.

Here in my little hole, the premium properties (position and potential) still sell relatively fast, and they are not necessarily cheap.

But, cheaper places that should sell still aren't moving fast; there's bound to be a million areas like this, and some of those Vendors surely are wanting to get rid of them asap.

My feeling is that (based on what I've heard) is that even thought there are cheap places to buy, not everyone can qualify for finance in this current banking climate.

My bank CBA are offering a $700 incentive to bring your loan over to them.

No mention of incentives for new loans; why is that? Because they're not lending too much atm.

 

[Aaron_C]

You can still get finance but it is getting a bit harder because they ask more questions. Just need to pick the lender carefully.

 

[Peter 14.7]

It is always good time to buy when the market is down provided you can survive the downturn yourself. That is the question to ask, not whether it is good time to buy.

Peter

 

[jacbmw]

Although Hobart Houses are off the boil this year (although they outperformed any other capital city in the ten years to the end of 2011 @ 190% gains), Hobart units are up >6% year on year, and >12% for the last quarter. >9% for the month.

Hobart vacancy rates are sitting at close to 5% though apparently :-(

 

[BayView]

Although Hobart Houses are off the boil this year (although they outperformed any other capital city in the ten years to the end of 2011 @ 190% gains), Hobart units are up >6% year on year, and >12% for the last quarter. >9% for the month.

Hobart vacancy rates are sitting at close to 5% though apparently :-(

I remember a few years ago there was a bit of a boom on Tassie IP's.

You basically had to offer asking price to get anything, but the returns were pretty good.

I reckon they would have had a bit of a glut of vacancies straight after this then too.

 

[Wise1InOz]

I wish but doesn't look like house prices are falling in the more desirable suburbs (Boroondara -e.g. Hawthorn E; Camberwell; Stonnington - Malvern, Glen Iris etc) in Melbourne Far from it.

We're planning to buy a[nother] house in either Camberwell or Hawthorn/Richmond if a nice bargain can be found. But at the moment I'm seeing house prices holding up either nice and steady if not on the up (for the nicer, well located properties). And sellers don't appear to be bothered keeping their house unsold for as long as they can get their desired price.

 

[Peter 14.7]

Out my way in the Macedon Ranges the high end over $500k lifestyle rural and gran heritage homes properties are hurting. Things that where a given $1M only 2 years back as asking $800k ...please.

Very tempting but these are lifestyle and time consuming.

Anything $500 still sells to families do ing the tree change.

Peter

 

[Ausprop]

I see John McGrath on Switzer last night reckons even Melbourne has hit the bottom. He said Sydney is going very strong and is the best market, but he can't point to Perth on a map so not sure if that is with Perth in consideration or not. He said Brisbane was a good investment now and gold coast was a good speculative buy as there are oversold bargains to be had.

 

[HotRod]

I see John McGrath on Switzer last night reckons even Melbourne has hit the bottom. He said Sydney is going very strong and is the best market, but he can't point to Perth on a map so not sure if that is with Perth in consideration or not. He said Brisbane was a good investment now and gold coast was a good speculative buy as there are oversold bargains to be had.

His arm probably wasn't long enough and he couldn't be arsed leaning over and pointing at Perth.

 

[BayView]

I wish but doesn't look like house prices are falling in the more desirable suburbs (Boroondara -e.g. Hawthorn E; Camberwell; Stonnington - Malvern, Glen Iris etc) in Melbourne Far from it.

We're planning to buy a[nother] house in either Camberwell or Hawthorn/Richmond if a nice bargain can be found. But at the moment I'm seeing house prices holding up either nice and steady if not on the up (for the nicer, well located properties). And sellers don't appear to be bothered keeping their house unsold for as long as they can get their desired price.

These areas have pretty much always performed this way from my memory.

I can't remember there being too much volatility in these areas, and they are very desirable locations, so don't expect too much of a drop to get that bargain.

You might be lucky enough to uncover a distressed seller (divorce etc) but you'd need to be very quick to get I'd say.

 

[Wise1InOz]

You might be lucky enough to uncover a distressed seller (divorce etc) but you'd need to be very quick to get I'd say.

Yes, have been incredibly lucky with our PPOR, so who knows? May be lady-luck will smile upon us again!

 

[Indifference]

This is the opening passage of a Bloomberg article:

"Melbourne, where home prices have fallen more than in any other major Australian city........." [I trust that is close to correct]

I'm not suggesting that nobody predicted it but I winced as poster after poster here extolled the virtues of and gains to be made in Melbourne. I felt the same eight years ago when the pros in Sydney laughed at those of us in the provinces.

The cap gains in gold have dwarfed those of property since then. And there is nothing wrong with a REAL gain, even if unleveraged when compared with the patchy profits in property and shares.

I also winced at the sheeple's comments.... and I continue to do so!

When are people going to wake up and realize what is going on with the economy, both nationally & globally? I am stunned at how ignorant most people are to the current macro issues and how they will in turn translate into secular market pressures.... like, ahh, property, commodities, shares, equities... etc, etc....

I am not a D&G'er, far from it. But one thing is for sure.... we are definitely NOT on the cusp of another property boom. Far from it. (in general market terms)

Lending is going to get a whole lot tougher as banks struggle with the international money market roller coaster that is in serious trouble right now.... no, not next year or in 10 years. Right now. If people don't grasp what the implications of QE are (or know what it even stands for) then they should learn. Learn FAST. The ripple affect reaches all investment asset classes... bar none. There is a silver lining though.... ....and the smart money has been aggressively positioning of late.

Just watch and learn from the big boys & us little folk can make some spare change as well!!!

Oh, and I did see it coming:

http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?p=915216#post915216

 

[MTR]

Hi ID

Definately not on the cusp of a boom.

Also, for those who saw it coming, did you pull the pin in time and take a profit.

Cheers MTR