Why Gillard will DEFINITELY lose the next election

[dan c]

And she brought out the 'misogyny' card too. Truly delightful.

I don't think she was 'playing a card'. That's a cynical way of looking at it. She was specifiucally referring to some of the bloggers, and calling them nutjobs and misogynistic is a pretty accurate description.

Have you read any of Larry Pickering's stuff? The guy is unhinged.

 

[Sunfish]

Have you read any of Larry Pickering's stuff? The guy is unhinged.

Pickering has not been as rude as Gillard is in parliament to Abbott. At least he uses her correct name, no "Mr Wabbitt" stuff. He is definitely bitter but a "nut case"? Not so sure.

 

[dan c]

Once again I'm very frustrated at the majority of folks continually focussed on either Abbott the man or Gillard the woman.


This is not the US. It is not a Presidential race.

You are right, the party selects the leader, not the people. But I think the voters focus more on the leaders now than ever before, for a few reasons.

The election campaign is now almost exclusively a contest between the two leaders. Other ministers and shadows, and lowly backbenchers are kept quiet by the party machine. (Usually to stop gaffes. My parents local Labor member called the PM 'Julia Rudd' last campaign He wasn't heard from after this.) With the 24 hour news cycle and news channels and talking heads, any mis-step is magnified. Nervous nellie campaign managers think it's easier just to ban the backbenchers from talking to the press.

Also, with leader sets the agenda. So with Howard, we saw social conservatives like Abbott and Andrews rise through the ranks, while the moderates like Pyne were left behind, or like Vanstone, given crappy jobs. Or like Vanstone and Robert Hill, they were given plum overseas postings to get them out of the parliament. Both were replaced by more conservative types. (Both were Senators, so the public had no choice in their replacements.)

Rudd tried to copy this (amongst other things) and petioned the factions to select his own front bench. The factions, pleased to finally be out of oppostion, said yes. So the party was molded in Rudd's image, to an extent.

Then we had commentary that the Labor party shouldn't have changed leaders, because the public wanted to vote Kevin out. They felt cheated. Well, as you point out, the appointment of leader is never their decision. All they can do is vote their local member out.

 

[Dazz]

You are right, the party selects the leader, not the people. But I think the voters focus more on the leaders now than ever before

I'm sure that focus more than ever is true, although my opinion is that is wrong. There could be very talented people out there who are being gagged so as not to "trip up".

Perhaps that's why the Leaders come across as 'wooden and staged'. They are so experienced at the little tricks the media can do, they try to give them as little as possible to work with.

The election campaign is now almost exclusively a contest between the two leaders. Other ministers and shadows, and lowly backbenchers are kept quiet by the party machine.

I fear that is the case, and that IMO is a great shame, as to me, it should be about the policies that each party offer.....and in the broader sense we all know what each party stand for.

The trouble with the focus on the Leaders so much, is that they change out quite frequently. In Nov 2007 Howard and Rudd went at it, then in Aug 2010, less than 3 years later, we had wholesale change-out with Gillard vs Abbott.

IMO, this isn't a boxing match, it's a game of chess.

With the 24 hour news cycle and news channels and talking heads, any mis-step is magnified. Nervous nellie campaign managers think it's easier just to ban the backbenchers from talking to the press.

Indeed....and a mis-step can be as simple as interpreting a word or phrase, but the media will crucify and dig and dig, throwing pathetic little lines like "that's not what your Leader said"...."why are you at odds with your Leader"....."why are you contradicting your Leader".....and all that other **** to make them look as silly as possible.

Worse still, the public lap that **** up as gospel, and sometimes it goes viral......yet.....the Australian public are no better off for it.

The only thing that helps is good policy. The trouble is, the good stuff normally takes 5 or 10 years to filter thru, but the media cycle wants little 4 second sound bites.

It's a crying shame the influence of the media has. Those unknown boys in the dark room of the cutting floor have an amazing amount to answer for, and yet we never put them under scrutiny.

 

[Dazz]

Wow, another stunning victory for the conservative side of politics last night up in the NT.

Once again, the Australian public have utterly rejected the left wing "progressive" ideology and booted the Labor Govt that had held power up in the NT for three terms, and seeking a 4th.

The primary votes for the 4 usual parties were :

Party..........................Primary Vote %.............Change %

Country Liberals.................50.7 %.....................up 5.3 %
Labor...............................36.7 %.................down 6.5 %
Indys................................6.2%.......................up 3.1 %
Greens..............................3.1 %..................down 1.2 %


One of the Labor seats (Stuart) was held by a very fat 15.0% margin and it looks very much like they are going to lose it. A big 16.0% swing putting the Liberals 1.0% in front with 52% of the vote counted in that particular seat.


Last night, Labor conceded defeat. Final numbers in the 25 seat NT parliament are probably going to be ;

Country Liberals..........15
Labor.........................9
Indys.........................1



So, a wave of conservative ideology is washing over the nation. Since Sept 2008, when all states and Federally were all Labor controlled, the following have fallen ;

WA, Vic, NSW, Qld and now the NT.


Labor still have Feds, SA, Tas, ACT.


Not exactly sure, but I believe the next cab off the rank is the WA state election once again, slated for Mar 2013, where the Libs, who currently govern as a minority govt with the nationals and independents are looking to bolster their control and actually win outright.


There is a blue wave of politics sweeping all before it.


** Note well.....this is not some Mickey Mouse newspaper poll, this is the real thing, where everyone was consulted.

 

[Dave_R]

Not exactly sure, but I believe the next cab off the rank is the WA state election once again

ACT elections are in October. The ACT is so Left leaning (roughly 35% primary to the Libs in the 2010 fed election, most other votes Labor and Greens), and, coupled with what I think is a weaker party in Opposition than some of the other state Liberal parties, I can't see the ACT govt changing hands. My guess is that it will continue as a minority Labor/Greens govt.

 

[Deltaberry]

It'll be great if Abbott can legislate that we can round up the communsits and greenies and exile them like in Batman.

 

[Aaron_C]

It'll be great if Abbott can legislate that we can round up the communsits and greenies and exile them like in Batman.

Ah yes but if they did that who's going to work in McDonalds?

 

[Deltaberry]

Don't worry, these people don't work. Won't make a difference. And the government can spend less money on transforming roads to bike paths for a small minority after they leave.

 

[Nemo30]

ACT elections are in October. The ACT is so Left leaning (roughly 35% primary to the Libs in the 2010 fed election, most other votes Labor and Greens), and, coupled with what I think is a weaker party in Opposition than some of the other state Liberal parties, I can't see the ACT govt changing hands. My guess is that it will continue as a minority Labor/Greens govt.

Agree - unfortunately. Although we have had Liberal govts in the past, so I wouldnt say it was impossible.

It might be interesting now Stanhope has gone as he had a significant personal vote which secured an additional Labor member (Hare Clarke system). There has also been a bit of a scandal with some dodgy health waiting list numbers which has involved the chief minister - not sure its enough to dislodge her though.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Jeff Kennett for PM

 

[Deltaberry]

Jeff Kennett for PM

Gordon Gekko for PM.

Berlusconi for GG.

 

[redwing]

I recieved this today

New Patrol Boats for the North West

 

[Sunfish]

Old hat Redwing. Find us a pic of a yellow jumbo and you will have what the greens now demand.

 

[Peter 14.7]

Great Thread, yet to be found by the other side so it is so far, good debate.

On Turnbull he had his chance and flunked it. The job of the Opposition Leader is to fight, scrag, bully, ridicule, mock..... to do what ever to get the Gov to look wrong. Abbott can do this and he is a big reason Labor is so poor now. HE has earned his right to be PM. How he goes as PM is another matter.

Labor has brought this down on them selves. They should have been in for 3 terms, safely. Rudd would have made a better show of it. But that is it. Labor does not want moderates any more. It is all ex Union leaders who only experience is to back stab and spin doctor. A least Rudd had worked a diplomat.

Case in point: I noted with sadness in the 2007 Rudd slide that a (rare) labor member local farmer who had fought and won and then lost a tough seat in south VIC was dumped just prior to election for a dropped in , city clicker, ex Union boy when it was clear they were going to take power. Thanks for doing the hard yards... now pee off.

I say this not a rusted on Lib lover but as someone who thinks politics need all types. Rudd I thought was a fool but I now realise he had ship of fools to command and a deputy who should have been called Brutus.

Fast forward to 2012 same for seat of Bendigo. Retiring local Labor boy was handing over to local solicitor, family man, land care volunteer and sportsman, Greg Westbrook but , no, out of nowhere ex Qld union official who moved to Melbourne 8 years and still Union official has moved to Kyneton, coincidentally, as close as you can get to Melbourne 84km away and still be in the electorate of Bendigo, 69 km away is the nominee. Her first concern: black saturday rebuilding? repairing roads and infrastructure from the 2010 and 11 floods?, arresting the decline of viable agriculture in the bush? closing of food manufacturing? no.. in her first interview: she is quoted "a regional solution to the refugee policy?!?!?"

The Libs candidate is a local transport operator.

Why Labor and Gillard will lose.

Peter 14.7
.

 

[Dazz]

On Turnbull he had his chance and flunked it. The job of the Opposition Leader is to fight, scrag, bully, ridicule, mock..... to do what ever to get the Gov to look wrong. Abbott can do this and he is a big reason Labor is so poor now.

Hi Pete,

I was reading an interesting article in the Weekend Australian, which argued that the Opposition Leader's job during the first 2 years was to argue and fight, to make the Govt look as incompetent as possible, then in the third year....flip to the positive agenda that they wish to run, espousing their policies they would implement if elected in 12 months time.

It sort of felt right reading it.

Who knows, this might be the turning point where we see the Liberals stop tearing down the Labor policies, and actually start speaking about and promoting their policies.

Of course, like every Labor opposition in the past, they will leave it to the end so that the inevitable arguing, tearing down and ridiculing from Labor is kept to a minimum.

No-one in the Liberal camp is so silly as to bow to the Greens and Labor demands to put up policy like Hewson did back in 1993, only to have someone like Keating and Mike Willesee wipe the floor with them over a birthday cake....and subsequently lose a Federal election that should never have been lost.

Hewson was too upright, had too much integrity, and was honest as the day is long, and the Labor boys took full advantage of it and the public subsequently smashed him for it. Lessons were learnt.

 

[Peter 14.7]

Agree Dazz. However lately political parties have taken the "small target" approach. That is: let the Gov lose, not the Opposition Win.

And with the present Goverment being so on the nose everywhere, Hayden's famous statement about the 1983 Election (being a given for Labor) when he was dumped for Hawke that a "drovers dog could lead us to victory" rings similar.

From what I see, Labor's strategy is, and only is, make Tony make a mistake. Attack his perceived weakness. his religion, his relationship with Women, his Honesty to the point of Bluntness. His Blokeness.

If they had Turnbull it would be attack his Weakness as Leader, his Association with Gays, his Massive Wealth, his Silvertail World, his Business Ruthlessness and then his Business Failures.

Play the man but heaven help anyone if they attack Gillard, she is a woman.

Peter 14.7

 

[Sunfish]

Without the unions labor is dead and if labor is beaten in the next election the inevitable Royal Commission into union corruption will empower the libs to write draconian laws that will starve labor of funds, permanently. Any who think Julia is JUST fighting a misogynist nut-case and a couple of shock-jocks is deluded. This union scandal is not going away. [I doubt it will shorten this parliament either]

This is The Alamo for labor.

 

[Ed Barton]

Hi Pete,
No-one in the Liberal camp is so silly as to bow to the Greens and Labor demands to put up policy like Hewson did back in 1993, only to have someone like Keating and Mike Willesee wipe the floor with them over a birthday cake....and subsequently lose a Federal election that should never have been lost.

Hewson was too upright, had too much integrity, and was honest as the day is long, and the Labor boys took full advantage of it and the public subsequently smashed him for it. Lessons were learnt.

Hewson wasn't much of a politician, but would have made a good PM/leader.

 

[Aaron_C]

Oh yes I agree Sunfish this is about much more than the ALP. Just look at the construction union picketing in the middle of the Melbourne CBD....they know that their time is up because the Libs will bring back the ABCC to clamp down on these thugs.