Would you riot if your country was up the *****?

[equitymate]

Come on mate, makle a wrothwhile jjoker & I will laugh at it, but thinly veiled insults instead of humour don't really rock my boat

Actually totally unlike the Aussies, Greeks & the mediteranean are defintiley not big drinkers nbor will you see the stupidity and pathetic drunkeness you seee here so often like we cant;' control ourselves.

The greeks should of been protesting years ago but were too busy drunk enjoying the free for all, now the bill has arrived

Actually the funny thing is my original comment above is clearly a metaphor. Since you took it literally (emotions taking over objectivity) I couldnt help myself.

I must of missed the part where you told us you were Greek (not in this thread?)
If you replaced any refernce in this thread to Greece with say New Zealand would you still take such issue with anyones criticism?

If no I suggest your emotions are taking over your objectivity.

 

[jaycee]

Jeez, even those studies from Greece made by GREEK people, golly, they must be insulting the mythical honest Greek people! And boy George, channel 7 gives references now in email form so you can post them on forums so easily? I must send them a Christmas card this year.

"BURRRR HURRR IM UPSET BECOZ DEY SAY GREECE SHUD TAKE RESPONSAHBILITAH, NO FARRRREEEEE!!!!!! Oh I know, say they watch channel 7! Argument disproved!"

And just for the hell of it, by the way, I must be at work while these mythical reports are on tv.

Seriously, what the **** are you on about ? I did not understand a single word of your post ?

 

[Corey Batt]

But who is responsible for loaning them the loans that clearly collectively they will never pay back.

If you were in Greece why would you stand for that. Why would you stand for paying back 20bn in interest payments and just 5bn of the principle every year when instead you could default.

Sure if you default you will never get credit again, but so what, they are not going to get any meaningfull credit without massive strings anyway.

If I was personally in greeces position I would declare myself bankrupt in a heartbeat. I am very conservative but this does not mean I would take a hit for the team when I do not have to.

What you say above is eerily similar (perhaps deliberately?) to what the French said about Germany post WW1 with the war debt. Arguably it was one of the pre-requisites to the rise of a Nazi Germany. Subject a society to enough mistreatment and it does not end well. Look at it already and they are about 2 years into a 30 year cycle of suffering.

Greece has not lost a war, they have borrowed money and there is no legal way of enforcing payment (unless Germany goes to war with them!). Default is a legitamate course of action and you as the lender should take this into account. I blame the lenders at least equally with the greeks. You can say, it was always unsustainable, look at the fools, but who was the fool? The one living the life or the one lending them the money?

They default and in 10 years they will be back trading and getting themselves off to a better start with a new currency able to be devalued to suit the prevailing economic conditions. Having a currency across countries was always going to be usustainable. Different countries require different doses of monetary policy. We are one country and even here we talk about a 2 tier economy and the havoc that interest rates have on parts of the economy. Imagine if we were linked to some completely different economy like Chinas! It does not work and is unsustainable. This was alwyas going to happen the moment they decided to have a single currency and the reason we will never see a global currency.

1. They borrowed, they have to pay. To compare State finances to individuals is less than satisfactory, there are a multitude of problems with such an analysis. And you keep saying you would default? If you default in Aus, they would requisition a large portion of your wage for a long period of time to pay back your dues. Sounds familiar?

2. *Put my history Degree hat on* Completely different to WW1 reparations. Those were used as a tool, not to get back money. To suggest something like this is worthy of a counter thesis to do it justice. Payments were made huge to keep Germany down and stop growth, repayments from Greece are to get the money back that they owed.

3. So if you bought Greek debt say a decade ago in good faith of payment, then they went down the path they have now and you have no means of getting earlier payment, you would happily wipe off your investment? What about a tenant, if they bought too many cars and drugs or what ever, couldn't pay rent. They can just walk off because they 6 months backdated rent is going to take too long, and you'd have to make sacrifices. The problem is, you could get rid of the tenant, lenders couldn't request instant payment.

Seriously, what the fack are you on about ? I did not understand a single word of your post ?

Learn English a bit more then.

1.I brought up my view that the corruption and tax dodging of the Greeks has bitten them in the ***.
2.You say I'm somehow saying they're idiots and that we're better.
3.I reply that no, I'm saying that the tax dodging corruption culture they have is their undoing and provide a plethora of evidence.
4.You reply that I do not have any real understanding of what's going on and that I probably got my information from watching channel 7 news.
5.I call ******** on your attempt to 'disprove' my argument, if you could even call it that.

Pretty simple stuff really, you fail at arguing and are getting emotional when people talk about Greece.

I'll get into this topic more tomorrow when I have a day off.

 

[our obsession]

Would I riot?

Well, it would depend, when it is personal, about 'me stuff' I'm inclined to figure out a solution or go do whatever it takes (innovative wise) to ensure my independence and self relience/recovery/sustainability.

My 'rioting' has been mainly confined to advocating for disadvantaged, or the disempowered...eg children and elderly and exploitations of people(s). So, financial bankrupcy of a country...I just don't know Lizzie, I'd probably be more inclined to look for some opportunity and solution to kick things going on a very local, more select level, get that up and running, to inspire and possibly then employ others...

I am far more an advocating personality than a rioting type, but there are some politicians and CEO's that consider me the feisty rebel sheila from the bush.

 

[lizzie]

Now that they are up to bailout #5 ... pity they didn't bankrupt themselves BEFORE bailout #1 and started afresh.

Would've save a lot of heartache and many 100's of billions of euros. Sure, there would have been pain to those who had lent beforehand - but the pain will be so much worse now.

It's like borrowing to pour money into gambling in the hope of a big win to pay your lenders back.

 

[jaycee]

Now that they are up to bailout #5 ... pity they didn't bankrupt themselves BEFORE bailout #1 and started afresh.

Would've save a lot of heartache and many 100's of billions of euros. Sure, there would have been pain to those who had lent beforehand - but the pain will be so much worse now.

It's like borrowing to pour money into gambling in the hope of a big win to pay your lenders back.

Surely this therad should havbe been in Coffee lounge / Humour instead of economics

 

[equitymate]

Tom32,

If defaulting was the easy option why choose austerity?

You would think skipping the bill would be the preference for a socialist government, I guess by choosing austerity even socialist governments accept there really is no free lunch in economics.

 

[Aaron Sice]

i'm only whinging about the service, jaycee. nothing more.

So would "not enough contact to draw a worthwhile conculsion" be about the right way to describe it Aaron ?

mmmm....maybe, i dunno - but considering we were there a week i would consider that "enough" based on the fact we ate out every time and visited a fair few places.

You've NEVER heard anyone say they enjoyed the local experience on a greek holiday ?

no not at all, but then the rest of the tour we were on also got the same treatment so it's kinda hard to think i'm the one singled out here - and no, we didn't travel together all the time.

I think I've heard that about just every palce in the world I've ever talked about holidays.
Certainly Greece did not stand out as that alien from the rest of the world, to me anyway

to be fair to Greece, we got the same attitude in Bathelownah. I'm not a big drinker, nor a "rowdy" party person, nor subscribe to the overseas yobbo guidebook, so i'm struggling to understand why i received such poor service, other than these countries have very little service to offer, or are selective about who they offer it to.

 

[tom32]

1. They borrowed, they have to pay. To compare State finances to individuals is less than satisfactory, there are a multitude of problems with such an analysis. And you keep saying you would default? If you default in Aus, they would requisition a large portion of your wage for a long period of time to pay back your dues. Sounds familiar?

2. *Put my history Degree hat on* Completely different to WW1 reparations. Those were used as a tool, not to get back money. To suggest something like this is worthy of a counter thesis to do it justice. Payments were made huge to keep Germany down and stop growth, repayments from Greece are to get the money back that they owed.

3. So if you bought Greek debt say a decade ago in good faith of payment, then they went down the path they have now and you have no means of getting earlier payment, you would happily wipe off your investment? What about a tenant, if they bought too many cars and drugs or what ever, couldn't pay rent. They can just walk off because they 6 months backdated rent is going to take too long, and you'd have to make sacrifices. The problem is, you could get rid of the tenant, lenders couldn't request instant payment.

1. If they don't pay unlike my rights as an individual where I cannot be forced to pay and can declare bankruptcy for country debt they all go to debtors prison? What is the means of forcing payment, invasion? An investment in a countries bond is faith in the soveriegn to be able to pay back due to its ability to tax a population. There is always a default risk and bond traders are pricing this in for greece in a big way. Clearly the market thinks they are considering defaulting or politics will push them into it and I suspect it is because they know their is merit in doing such a thing.

2. "Squeeze untill the pips squeak" if I recall, is what they called it in the case of squeezing Germany. I just saw the similarities to your quote of squeezing the blood out of a stone and what that led to in the case of Germany was a state with political issues that led to extremism. I can see similarities in Greece now to this. More extreme views, violence etc.

Being a history grad you would know that Greece will not be the first nor last country to go into default.

In Greece sooner or later someone will get into politics that will be more extreme than what you get in more moderate times. As I understand it Hitler never would have come to power without the depression and hyperinflation causing social angst. It was the moderate middle classes that supported him as much as any large group. If we in Australia had mass rallies and violence on the streets it goes without saying that it does not go hand in hand with rising membership in the young liberals.

I do agree though that it was only theoretically that it was for reperations due to the war being fought in France not Germany hence the damage largely only to their nation not Germany, but practically speaking like the other conditions of the same treaty they were to keep Germany from repeating the process again. Ironic really what it led to.

3. I would not happily write it off but losing money to companies which go broke is quite common and while upsetting one extends credit to them to make a quid and people do so with open eyes as to the risks. Bond traders more than anyone deal in risks so they would understand exactly what it is they are getting themselves into and can hardly complain when the very same risk they make coin out of everytime it does not occur actually in this case does occur it is a bit rich.

 

[tom32]

Tom32,

If defaulting was the easy option why choose austerity?

You would think skipping the bill would be the preference for a socialist government, I guess by choosing austerity even socialist governments accept there really is no free lunch in economics.

I would expect Greece would not have access to credit again and default too will be painfull for similar reasons, from the point of default forward they must rely on their own outputs in trade not credit, but at least not have an interest bill. Trouble for a government considering this is that the political party that chooses such a course will forever be remembered as the one that forced Greece to default long after the default itself and the massive interest burden is gone which is forcing the Greeks to be even more austere than they would be just living within their means from this point forward.

But it is only a matter of time before they default as it will get to the point where the interest bill is so large that blind freddy on the streets of Athens will know defaulting is the only way out and then their will either be lots of violence or the government will accept default is the only way out. I guess the only other option is a restructure but after this they cannot get credit anyway, so they might as well go the whole hog and default.

You mention socialism. Ironically credit and debt forgiveness is a cornerstone of modern western capitalism not socialism. Whenever you lend money to someone the interest you recieve has to cover the risk of them never repaying. Sovereigns get better rates typically but still that risk is always there. Currently you can get over 25% interest on greek bonds. Clearly no one expects to get that back with no risk!

 

[Corey Batt]

We seem largely on the same page Tom, what I disagree with is the suggestion that defaulting will provide the Greeks with better lives. If you look at the local economy, take away the debt fuelled public sector and pensions, what do you have? I honestly don't think there is enough of a real economy to guarantee a better deal than the austerity measures. Furthermore the country would have to grow its own economy without any foreign funding etc. In such a corrupt country, I don't think this would provide any better results.

But then, sometimes countries need to fail so they can go on the right path and get such corruption out of their system.

 

[emptyvessel]

I am intrigued by the real impact, medium to long-term of letting a country default on its debts. Has this happened before and what was the result 20-30 years down the track?

What would it mean for the global economy if Greece did default and was left to itself for a while?

Would the impact be the same if the U.S.A defaulted as some folks are telling will happen on August 2nd? Even if the government fails, won't all the multinational corporations just keep on motoring as if nothing happened?

I really don't know, I want someone to tell me.

 

[pennyk]

My hubby was just watching the news and US debt to GDP ratio is significantly higher than Greece (US over 10% and Greece around 8%).

I think in both countries, significant structural reform is needed for long term economic growth, which is likely to be very painful.

I dont get the feeling from either country that they are willing to do that structural reform.

as to whether I would riot... I definitely wouldnt, cause I hate crowds!
But I probably would take some action in terms of lobbying and political activism.

 

[Crabnet]

My hubby was just watching the news and US debt to GDP ratio is significantly higher than Greece (US over 10% and Greece around 8%).

I think in both countries, significant structural reform is needed for long term economic growth, which is likely to be very painful.

Agreed, as Mark Steyn wrote
http://www.steynonline.com/content/view/4155/

'The American Dream, 2011: You pay four bucks a gallon to commute between your McJob and your underwater housing to prop up a spendaholic, grabafeelic, paramilitarised bureaucracy-without-end bankrupting your future at the rate of a fifth of a billion dollars every hour. In a sane world, Americans would be outraged at the government waste. Instead, our elites worry about sea levels. The oceans will do just fine. It's the US that's drowning'.

 

[Sunfish]

I am intrigued by the real impact, medium to long-term of letting a country default on its debts. Has this happened before and what was the result 20-30 years down the track?

I'm no expert but Argentina did. Destroyed the middle class and has never recovered.

Remember Argentina has (had) a lot going for it, similar to us. They failed politically and nothing has changed so it is imperative that we keep OUR bustards honest. Lazy, corrupt pollies can destroy a nation and it doesn't matter if they are democratically elected or not. Hitler was!

So if rioting is the absolute last option to unseat a treasonous government (we will replace ours soon enough by democratic process) then a "responsible" electorate should riot. A compliant one will do as the Germans did and allow it to do despicable things in their name. MOST Germans weren't Nazis but they committed sins of omission.

 

[Corey Batt]

My hubby was just watching the news and US debt to GDP ratio is significantly higher than Greece (US over 10% and Greece around 8%).

....The US debt to GDP ratio is above 80%+ and greece is 127%+. Can't get the exact numbers without a more thorough look.

 

[SENIOR]

Having one currency in Europe was a mistake
Compare Greece to Germany and there are clear differances between the two countries
So its like Australia and New Guinue having the same currency at the end it wont work
Now Greece is only option is to drop the Euro and go back to there own currency and devalue so they can become competitive again

Senior

 

[Sunfish]

....The US debt to GDP ratio is above 80%+ and greece is 127%+. Can't get the exact numbers without a more thorough look.

CJ's figures would be closer than the 8 and 10% ones which are way off the mark.

 

[Sunfish]

Here's an interesting vid re riots:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JB4wefzZLNc&feature=related

 

[intrigued]

I am intrigued by the real impact, medium to long-term of letting a country default on its debts. Has this happened before and what was the result 20-30 years down the track?

What would it mean for the global economy if Greece did default and was left to itself for a while?

Would the impact be the same if the U.S.A defaulted as some folks are telling will happen on August 2nd? Even if the government fails, won't all the multinational corporations just keep on motoring as if nothing happened?

I really don't know, I want someone to tell me.

This is report I got Feb 2010

Countries defaulting on government debt is nothing new – in fact it is almost the normal condition rather than the exception. At any point in time an average of around 5% to 10% of all countries are in default on their external government debt (including debt restructures in which bond-holders take a “hair-cut” – meaning they receive less than they are contractually entitled). There are occasional lulls when there are fewer countries defaulting – for example in the 1820s, 1910s, late 1970s and late 2000s. The problem is that we have recently been in a rare lull in government debt defaults, so the debt crises in Iceland and Dubai were seen as unusual and alarming. They are neither unusual nor alarming – but merely a return to normal from the recent lull. Hungary, Latvia and Romania are in the hands of the IMF. The next default candidate is Greece, and may be followed by Spain and Italy, Portugal among others. Greece has been in default on its external government debt for a total of 90 years out of the 181 years since its independence in 1829; Spain has defaulted 13 times before, and Italy is no stranger to government default either.
The fact that country defaults are not unusual does not mean they will be painless. Bond holders – mainly commercial banks (including the big German banks), private and institutional investors – will be hit, and many more banks will probably be bailed out by governments (which will raise government debt levels even further). If the EU (primarily German tax-payers) bails out the defaulting EU countries, it will just encourage more fiscal recklessness in future, in the same way that the repeated US government bailouts of US lenders in each successive US lending crisis in the past have just encouraged more bad lending, leading directly to the recent sub-prime crisis.
Whatever happens in Europe, the Californian state debt crisis dwarfs all the likely defaults in Europe combined. The tab for that will eventually be picked up by the US Federal government, adding even more to the US federal debt and to the burden on taxpayers in the other 49 states.