YIKES! Keep an eye on CAIRNS!!

There is definite signs of the Cairns market turning. Not too many quality properties in reasonable areas under $400k. Happy days!
 
doozer said:
There is definite signs of the Cairns market turning. Not too many quality properties in reasonable areas under $400k. Happy days!
Click to expand...

Doozer - Your outlook has swung around completely from your earlier comments! Amazing what a few months can do to local sentiment isn't it! :)

Cheers

Jen
 
Hard to read Cairns but not that positive. I think it has bottomed out which is good.

Unemployment rising 8.5%, vacancy rates rising to 2.7%, youth unemployment 2nd highest in the nation, participation rate falling indicating people have given up looking for work. Cost of living pressures getting worse. House prices for the year up 3%, up higher in some areas and building types than others.

I see people in tourism happier than they have been in years but at the same time government projects are drying up. Structural change in the local economy. One project ends and the a new one starts. Houses doing okay but units failing. So for every plus there is a minus. I think the capital gains from the major cities are helping keep things moving but it is slow.

Everything seems to be relying on AQUIS and insurance premiums being reduced.

It may boom next week but will be emotionally driven, the fundamentals of the town are weak. I would still exercise caution.
 
Nelly said:
Hard to read Cairns but not that positive. I think it has bottomed out which is good.

Unemployment rising 8.5%, vacancy rates rising to 2.7%, youth unemployment 2nd highest in the nation, participation rate falling indicating people have given up looking for work. Cost of living pressures getting worse. House prices for the year up 3%, up higher in some areas and building types than others.

I see people in tourism happier than they have been in years but at the same time government projects are drying up. Structural change in the local economy. One project ends and the a new one starts. Houses doing okay but units failing. So for every plus there is a minus. I think the capital gains from the major cities are helping keep things moving but it is slow.

Everything seems to be relying on AQUIS and insurance premiums being reduced.

It may boom next week but will be emotionally driven, the fundamentals of the town are weak. I would still exercise caution.
Click to expand...

Nelly, you make a lot of assertions, but what are your references? We're obviously following different sources. Mine are as per my facebook link below.

'Unemployment rates rising'? - yes, more people retiring.
Vacancy rate of 2.7% is questionable - however still under 3% which is considered to be a balanced market
'Government projects drying up'? Definitely not. Infrastucture investment is historically high.
'Units failing'? Herron Todd White would suggest not so.

I disagree with your assertion that everything is relying on Aquis and insurance premiums being reduced. I have held off selling in Cairns because I believe the market cycle says it is well due for growth. The people buying in Cairns are generally locals choosing to buy because it is more appealing and accessible than renting. Or people wishing to relocate or retire to the area, or investors from down south who realise that the cost of buying and standard of living outweigh any concerns about insurance premiums.

Cheers

Jen
 
Hey Jen,

Clearly knowing FNQ better than most, do you see much growth in 12-24 months for units in Cairns? Or, is it more just for houses? Also, do you see some growth for the whole of Cairns, or just certain suburbs? i.e., Yorkeys etc.
 
Facts can be checked with Cairns watch and ABS labour force detailed Table 16

http://www.cairnswatch.com.au/

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsPage/6291.0.55.001Jan 2014?OpenDocument


Lower participation with high youth unemployment general means people are not joining the workforce, rather than retirement.

Unemployment rates do not include those not looking for work, ie those who retire. Unemployment rate over 9% but set at 8.3% trend.

2.7% vacancy rate is higher than it was last month which was higher than the month before. Do you understand trends? It has been rising for 6 months. With so little construction it is telling.


The power bills have gone up dramatically and has attracted a lot of press with feedback suggesting people are struggling. Salvo record number of requests for assistance.

http://www.cairnspost.com.au/lifest...t-salvation-army/story-fnjpuwet-1226832448126


This blog describes how we miss out compared to the rest of Queensland and the rest of the nation in building approvals.

http://www.conus.com.au/_blog/eco/post/1403042/

I read this blog and think I am reading about somewhere else, not where I live for sure. Emotions can drive growth for a bit but that is all it will be, the fundamentals are weak as I have proven with the links. Something has to actually happen though and not much is. So if the market moves please know it will be emotional as long as fundamentals are weak. I am not into hype sorry.
 
Okay from the ground floor I have seen in the last few months the following things.

Can't buy a decent house in the better area of brinsmead anything that does come up is going above market ie http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-brinsmead-116039355 only just went on the market in this area and gone for above asking I think 475k but don't quote me.

I personally know of a few properties in kuranda a friend offered good money on got accepted and while getting a contract together someone come along and offered 35k more than he was.

Yorkeys knob you can't buy a house to save your life.

friend just brought a house in holloways for a cheap price now you can't get anything go and have a look all the ones that are listed are usually sold or under offer.

Kowari beach my mortage broker was telling me he had a customer who was chasing the mid range in the market out there and everytime something hit the market it was going for 20% over asking price or was a rubbish house.

Just a few examples why cairns is about to move all the good stock is selling everything under $300000k is clearing.

3 years ago I couldn't find a house to buy that wasn't renting for the same as purchase ie 350k purchase 350pw rent now the price are 350k 420pw rent giving better return.
 
Not much seems to be happening in my area, Bluewater Harbour estate in Trinity Park at the moment. On the non water side of the street two houses put on the market in the past week and another new build listed a couple of weeks ago for a price lower than I think it's worth though the vendors may be trying to get rid of it quick which doesn't help my house price...

The house next door to me has been for sale for quite a while (read: at least a year) going on and off the market. It's waterfront and they just knocked $500k off the asking price. There's a couple $2m+ places being slow to move, but that's expected.

Still a few vacant blocks for sale too which is keeping the house prices down but the Marina developement is being started in April apparently which will be good with a tavern, retail shops and restaurants. Rental return is pretty decent which surprised me.

The Elysian estate still has a lot of vacant blocks which are slow to move. Good size but on the side of a hill with a small building envelope and strict developer guidelines to adhere to.

Trinity Beach seems to be doing ok with a market that seems to be aligned with the rest of the Northern Beaches.
 
Nelly said:
2.7% vacancy rate is higher than it was last month which was higher than the month before. Do you understand trends? It has been rising for 6 months. With so little construction it is telling.
Click to expand...

Nelly

I do understand trends. This is the vacancy trend data I am looking at:

image.jpg

Cheers

Jen
 
Hi Kesse

Trinity Park is one of the newest and priciest areas in the region, and it is still expanding. Development has exploded in that stretch between Trinity Beach and Smithfield over recent years. Developers are running out of land to develop in that area and stock on the market is being steadily absorbed.

image.jpg

Cheers

Jen
 
Cairns Data

Nelly said:
Facts can be checked with Cairns watch and ABS labour force detailed Table 16

http://www.cairnswatch.com.au/

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsPage/6291.0.55.001Jan 2014?OpenDocument


Lower participation with high youth unemployment general means people are not joining the workforce, rather than retirement.

Unemployment rates do not include those not looking for work, ie those who retire. Unemployment rate over 9% but set at 8.3% trend.

2.7% vacancy rate is higher than it was last month which was higher than the month before. Do you understand trends? It has been rising for 6 months. With so little construction it is telling.


The power bills have gone up dramatically and has attracted a lot of press with feedback suggesting people are struggling. Salvo record number of requests for assistance.

http://www.cairnspost.com.au/lifest...t-salvation-army/story-fnjpuwet-1226832448126


This blog describes how we miss out compared to the rest of Queensland and the rest of the nation in building approvals.

http://www.conus.com.au/_blog/eco/post/1403042/

I read this blog and think I am reading about somewhere else, not where I live for sure. Emotions can drive growth for a bit but that is all it will be, the fundamentals are weak as I have proven with the links. Something has to actually happen though and not much is. So if the market moves please know it will be emotional as long as fundamentals are weak. I am not into hype sorry.
Click to expand...

Thanks for posting these links, Nelly. I have had a good look at the data and made some interesting discoveries.

The Cairns Watch report published by Herron Todd White does suggest that the Cairns Region unemployment is up. This data is based on a huge region that takes in Port Douglas, the Tablelands and the Cassowary Coast, as illustrated here.
Cairns Region - HTW.jpg

If you have a look at some of the unemployment data I have attached/linked, which has been cut in different ways, you can see a few things going on.

1. According to this graph, the trend in unemployment for the Cairns Regional Council is actually steadily decreasing. Compare this with the Australia wide unemployment rate, which is increasing.
2. The Small Area Labour Markets publication gives a more fine-grained picture of what is going on in this large region, with Cairns (C) unemployment rates down across the board.

if you are interested in playing with the data cut in different ways, this is a brilliant website. http://statistics.oesr.qld.gov.au/qld-regional-profiles
I generated a number of reports from this site which I have attached below.
There is a clear difference between the Cairns North and Cairns South statistical areas in terms of unemployment, with Cairns North coming in pretty close to the State average. When you dig a little deeper, you can see the concentrated pockets of unemployment within these regions. This website is also great for looking at this: http://atlas.id.com.au/cairns.

Regarding building approvals, the data suggests that overall, the Cairns LGA approvals have increased. And again, digging a bit deeper it appears that Cairns South approvals have declined, while Cairns North approvals have increased.

View attachment 11894

This overall increase is reflected in the media release issued by the Master Builders Association the day after the blog you referred to was published.

Cheers

Jen
 
Well priced property is selling in 1 week rather than 1 month, from a year ago. Lots more buyers at open homes.

Basically, it's now less properties for sale, and double or triple the buyers competing for it.

The market started to ramp up about October last year. Want to buy myself ASAP buy funds are a bit light ATM, as I can see prices increasing 5-10% by year end.

The market is on the "cusp", so yes, the fundamentals will still take a bit of time to improve. Local and national developers are returning and investing in Cairns with projects starting.
 
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