Cairns Data
Facts can be checked with Cairns watch and ABS labour force detailed Table 16
http://www.cairnswatch.com.au/
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsPage/6291.0.55.001Jan 2014?OpenDocument
Lower participation with high youth unemployment general means people are not joining the workforce, rather than retirement.
Unemployment rates do not include those not looking for work, ie those who retire. Unemployment rate over 9% but set at 8.3% trend.
2.7% vacancy rate is higher than it was last month which was higher than the month before. Do you understand trends? It has been rising for 6 months. With so little construction it is telling.
The power bills have gone up dramatically and has attracted a lot of press with feedback suggesting people are struggling. Salvo record number of requests for assistance.
http://www.cairnspost.com.au/lifest...t-salvation-army/story-fnjpuwet-1226832448126
This blog describes how we miss out compared to the rest of Queensland and the rest of the nation in building approvals.
http://www.conus.com.au/_blog/eco/post/1403042/
I read this blog and think I am reading about somewhere else, not where I live for sure. Emotions can drive growth for a bit but that is all it will be, the fundamentals are weak as I have proven with the links. Something has to actually happen though and not much is. So if the market moves please know it will be emotional as long as fundamentals are weak. I am not into hype sorry.
Thanks for posting these links, Nelly. I have had a good look at the data and made some interesting discoveries.
The Cairns Watch report published by Herron Todd White does suggest that the Cairns Region unemployment is up. This data is based on a huge region that takes in Port Douglas, the Tablelands and the Cassowary Coast, as illustrated here.
If you have a look at some of the unemployment data I have attached/linked, which has been cut in different ways, you can see a few things going on.
1. According to this graph, the trend in unemployment for the
Cairns Regional Council is actually steadily decreasing. Compare this with the Australia wide unemployment rate, which is increasing.
2. The
Small Area Labour Markets publication gives a more fine-grained picture of what is going on in this large region, with Cairns (C) unemployment rates down across the board.
if you are interested in playing with the data cut in different ways, this is a brilliant website.
http://statistics.oesr.qld.gov.au/qld-regional-profiles
I generated a number of reports from this site which I have attached below.
There is a clear difference between the Cairns North and Cairns South statistical areas in terms of unemployment, with Cairns North coming in pretty close to the State average. When you dig a little deeper, you can see the concentrated pockets of unemployment within these regions. This website is also great for looking at this:
http://atlas.id.com.au/cairns.
Regarding building approvals, the data suggests that overall, the Cairns LGA approvals have increased. And again, digging a bit deeper it appears that Cairns South approvals have declined, while Cairns North approvals have increased.
View attachment 11894
This overall increase is reflected in the
media release issued by the Master Builders Association the day after the blog you referred to was published.
Cheers
Jen